Ignore everything you see about polling. Polls don't win elections, but they can sway elections.
Vote. Vote. Vote.
this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2024
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I'm hopeful, but not as optimistic as you. Vote, get your friends to vote, and convince your friends to get their friends to vote.
From the article: "Experts have warned against over-interpreting early polling data, as the subsamples of those who say they have already submitted their ballot have larger margins of error."
The one thing that is certain is that America will get the president that it deserves.
Not really. We got W and donnie, and neither won the majority, so, no....
Fuck the polls, go and vote. Today is the last day in Texas to vote early. On the 5th if you haven't voted yet get up off your ass and go wait in line and vote. Vote for Harris, Vote for Trump, write in my name, I don't give a fuck, just go and vote.
Don't vote for Trump, democrats and liberals and progressives need to stop shooting themselves in the foot saying this. Don't encourage people to vote for Trump for any reason.
I’ll be honest, I’d rather see a culture of voting in general, and most apathatic people probably aren’t so driven by fear that they’ve lost themselves to conservative brainrot. Trump voters aren’t the ones staying home, we know this.
To reiterate: Out of any avenue someone could take at voting time I hate non-voters the most and it’s not even close. They’re either completely fine with being unaware of the major decisions that run their country and impact their lives or they’re some high-horse riding dipshit acting like they’re better than everyone else while handing elections over to the worst people. I’ve also seen way to many places go conservative because of people who say shit like “I dunno [the left wing candidate(s)] just didn’t energize me” and I’m like bitch I’ll fucking energize you with this here cattle prod now get moving.
Seriously, at least a scared dipshit conservative is doing something about their situation and staying involved even if they did get stuck following liars and grifters.
A vote for Trump is a vote to end elections altogether
Ok so you didn’t read my comment.
They never do
This is an opinion I’ve held and, as you’re getting some flak for, I have as well. Apathy of voting just for the sake of D or R is one thing, but apathy to the point of not even caring who wins is even worse. As the saying goes, elections have consequences, and you can at least do something for or against those consequences. It really comes down to how willing you are to be cognizant of having an ideology or just getting sucked into one.
I also would love to see a culture of voting. And I think getting people to vote is great, what I am specifically trying to critique is giving expressed permission to vote for Trump, I feel it undermines the truth that he is a danger to Democracy and the world by saying you don't actually care who they vote for.
I agree with you, but kinda don't?
The important thing is to engender a culture of engagement, and a big factor of that is getting people to the polls. Yes, I think voting for Trump is a vote to end Democracy in the US, but I think we should separate the messages. There are two distinct ones:
- It is important that you vote.
- It is important that you vote for Kamala.
Point 1 is the more enduring one; point 2, this election, ensures we continue to have point 1. But I don't believe we need to stop reinforcing the first point, especially because if 100% of the US voted, Kamala would win handily. That's why Republicans are so keen on voter suppression. People, in general, will be more receptive to message 1.
All day long I've been reminding people that today is the last day- dry cleaner, school secretaries, people at the gas station, ...
Kamala is going to win comfortably. Mark it.
Popular vote? Oh yeah, not even a question. Harris is going to absolutely dominate in the popular vote.
Electoral vote? Oh see, that's a different story. Shit is close, like uncomfortably close.
Biden pulled Michigan in 2020 by about 150k votes. A 2.8% margin. And he was up in the polls by 10% going into it. Right now Harris is showing only a 1.7% lead in the polls in Michigan. Harris has to absolutely take Michigan, there's not a path to winning without Michigan without pulling something like Ohio or Georgia, which she's 6% under in Ohio and 2% under in Georgia. So the GA surprise, nobody should be counting on that. Georgia by the numbers is going Trump this election. Ohio is solid Trump territory. Thinking Florida or Texas might sway is foolish thinking. So without those four, Harris has to pick up the Rust belt if she wants to win, and she's not polling well there. Like she's ahead, but Biden was double digits leading the Rust belt in 2020 and that turned into single digit percentage leads in votes. Harris has single digit leads in the Rust Belt polls (in aggregate).
If Harris wins this, in the electoral college, it's going to be by the thinnest margins we've seen before. Not even joking, Trump on the Electoral college has a collection of states that he's made incredibly safe that puts only a handful of battlegrounds he needs. Harris has nothing but uphill from where we are currently at.
The lead is larger than the one Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in the 2016 election as the Democratic nominee woos swing states
From the article. And Clinton lost by some of the thinnest margins in key states. In Michigan, she lost by 0.1% of the vote. That was a massive loss that costed Clinton incredibly. Literally 10,000 votes were the difference. The Libertarian candidate received twelve times the number of votes that Clinton lost by. WI, MI, and PA, Clinton lost those three states by less than 100,000 votes. And it was those losses that gave Trump the win. Less than 100,000 votes is was made the 2016 election.
Anybody who thinks this election is a done deal is talking out their ass. You run the numbers for who will win which State, Trump is inches from victory. This is going to be a insanely close race. Everyone HAS TO GET OUT THERE and vote. This is going to get decided by single digit percents in key states if not even closer than that.
There are some additional reasons to be optimistic.
First, the poll numbers have been getting skewed by Republican affiliated pollsters that consistently show Trump in a better position than the nonpartisan polls. The race is definitely close, but if these partisan polls really are just trying to give the impression of a surge in Trump support and aren't actually more accurate than the nonpartisan polls, then that potentially pushes some states from a narrow Trump lead back to a narrow Harris lead. And it's not like there isn't a precedent for this, it's exactly what happened with the polls in 2022.
Second, while Republicans are casting a higher percentage of the early votes than in 2020, that increase is largely coming from people who voted on election day in 2020. Moving a vote from election day to early voting is a net change of 0. And the Harris gotv machine appears to be much stronger than the one Trump outsourced to Musk, which seems to be targeting the least reliable voters while also using the least reliable canvassers. It's no wonder Musk resorted to buying ~~votes~~ petition signatures.
Harris has a stronger lead among women than Biden or Clinton did, and the gender gap in turnout so far is also higher in the previous elections. In addition, Harris is leading among voters over 65, a reversal from previous elections and particularly important because they are by far the most reliable voters.
And the news cycle has not been kind to Trump this past week. It turns out that insulting groups that make up a sizable chunk of the voting population in certain key swing states isn't a good move. Will it make a difference by Tuesday? Hard to say, but it sure as hell isn't helping him.
None of this is terribly solid, it's just trends and indicators, no one should be getting complacent here. But it's enough for me to feel cautiously optimistic that Harris will be able to secure Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with a reasonable chance of picking up at least one more state.
If the Republican gotv gamble backfires and their election day turnout advantage doesn't fully materialize, we could see more states flip. More importantly, it could be enough to flip the House (currently a toss up) and maybe even hold the Senate (requires defying expectations in at least 2 out of 3 races, so a long shot but not impossible).
You just made my stomach turn, but you're right. This shit is about to get way fucking crazier than I think anybody is prepared for.
I have voted and Harris will win my state. I'm not sure what else I can do except go online, pretend to be a gopher and really get weird, but I doubt that'd sway anyone and I got shit to do
Ignore this and vote. Take others to vote. Vote vote vote vote vote
"The lead is larger than the one Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in the 2016 election..."
Don't invoke her name! Don't put that juju on us! She had a supposed 95% chance to win and look what happened lol
I definitely envy your optimism though, I'm in the exact opposite camp. I believe Trump has this hands down even without the fuckery. Polling that has weights for shitty partisan pollsters still show Trump leading everywhere that matters and polling always underestimates him. :(
Don't fucking stop. Don't listen to the polls, good or bad. Our republic depends not merely on winning, but running up the score, so that there's no doubt about who won.
And if that's not enough reason, every vote for Kamala is just 1 more Psychic damage that Trump takes after the election. He thinks everyone loves him; your vote is proof that he's wrong, and it will drive him MAD.
Vote. Vote. VOTE.
Kamala is going to win comfortably. Mark it.
2016 flashbacks.
Percentage points worth of Trump voters have died since then from natural causes and Covid. Trump lost even more after the coup attempt and the rest of the crazy shit he's done. Meanwhile, he hasn't flipped anyone from the left.
He's going to lose.
Your mouth to the electorate's ears, mate.
The Democratic nominee had an advantage of 19 to 29 points over her Republican rival, according to tallies by ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN.
The lead is larger than the one Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in the run-up to the 2016 election when polls showed the Democratic nominee leading with 8 to 16 points.
Joe Biden had a greater margin in late 2020 polls when Democrats embraced mail voting, while Trump attacked it and persuaded his supporters not to do it.
Ok, so basically Democrats always have an advantage in early voting and it's hard to know what to make of this. It's pretty much exactly what you'd expect given that 2016 was before Trump heavily politicized early and mail-in voting and 2020 was during the pandemic when Democrats were less likely to want to go to crowded polling places because of the whole believing Covid exists thing.
Good, carry on VP Harris.
Polls are meaningless. VOTE!
If I wanted to not potentially get harassed by MAGATs, I'd be voting early too, so let's not assume early voters are a uniform representation. No slacking, pedal to the medal. Vote like your life depends on it.
Holy fucking shit that website is cancer. Tells me to register an account to view this "free" article. Takes 5 minutes of authentication timeouts before the website to accept the new account. Then blocks the article anyway because it needs a paid sub.
Maybe, maybe not. Get out and vote anyway, and get everyone you know to vote.
I'm not holding my breath for any result favourable or unfavourable.
Victory is not assured, unless people get their friends, coworkers, relatives and families to vote on or before Nov 5 to protect the freedom and democratic institutions that you have enjoyed that Donald Trump is promising to take away for himself. Optimism and hope is good, don't despair, just be aware and get the vote out.
America can handle the whining, complaining, lawsuiting snowflakes after you get job #1 done.
This makes me happy but doesn’t change the fact that I’ll be voting next week no matter what.
then we should be fine as long as she also has a lead in final day voting and mail in voting and all the or kind of voting.
I'm not going to let anyone trick me into complacency like they did in 2016...
How does it compare to Biden’s early vote lead?
Why are they comparing it to the last election the Democrats lost, instead of the one they won?
Bc covid, it was an exception of a year where people were encouraged to early vote rather than voting day vote to avoid catching disease. Turnout overall and early turnout was very high.
Early voting/voting by mail should be the norm...if Covid has a silver lining, it'd be tidal shifts like that...
Cautiously optimistic is the right approach IMO
Not big enough sadly
don't hold your breath. prepare for the worst, while hoping for the best!
also, vote if you haven't already.
As with all elections. The youth don't come out, but the elderly do. Elections are decided by retired people.
Story as written assumes people will vote with their party and thus comparing registered parties is a good indicator. However, of three people I know to be registered republican, they all claim to have voted Harris. I suppose it's less likely that a democrat went for Trump, but just to point out that analysis is flawed as it has only party affiliation to go with.
Further one might use voting data to characterize two independents I know as 'right leaning' because they always get the Republican primary ballot. However it's because they think it's more important to vote against the worst republicans than try to select the best democrats.
If a democrat didn't have a early vote lead they would immediately loose.
True. If the team didn't score more points in the first quarter than the other team scored the entire game, they would definitely lose.
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/11/01/harris-has-big-lead-among-early-voters-polls-show/