this post was submitted on 20 Dec 2023
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Yeah, any conflict between the two would need the army to split, and I don't know enough about how factionalised the US military is to know whether that's likely to happen.
Very unlikely for the military to splinter, as unlike other countries like Yugoslavia for example, soldiers don’t have strong allegiances to rival internally nationalist ideals, or separate tribes, or major clashes between religion (India and Pakistan), and so on.
The allegiance of the US military is to the state and state alone. It’s the state that pays their pay checks and pension after all. You would get some defectors, but they would be a tiny tiny margin. The military is mostly homogeneous in its ideals as well, as even POC, indigenous, immigrant, LGBT, etc, soldiers are mostly highly conservative, and nationalistic, defecting to any succeeding army would be treason and unthinkable to a majority of them.
Given that the military is firmly on the right, I think it's quite plausible that they would largely support a republican dictatorship as long as it had a thin veil of legality to it.
But that is a coup, not a rebellion at that point.
One could argue what is happening right now by Biden and co. is- if not a coup, the workings of a complete capture and closing off (ie. the end) of US "democracy," from the most prominent non-establishment political opponent (Trump) and a mass political movement of increasingly disenfranchised petit bourgeoisie and chuds in general, on incredibly shaky, if not outright nonexistent, farcical grounds.
Actually, I'd argue that's entirely what's going on here.
At what point should a person be precluded from running for office? What’s the cut off point or limit? Tax fraud? First degree murder? All the evidence has shown that Trump has done everything in his power to approach this in bad faith and grasp at any chance of maintaining his power.
The state of Colorado is not “Biden and Co”, ironically they are flexing the same “states rights” that Republicans love to talk about. Do you think Biden is ordering this?
You do realize that the only reason Trump is beelining for the presidency is to give himself God Emperor protections and claim that he is untouchable as president, right? Do you think he has any motivation other then that in running? Minus the absurd narcissism and egoism.
The "state's rights" arguments are entirely valid, so I'll leave those be. Though we both know this sets a terrible precedent (one that I'm all too happy to see, because the less legitimacy the US govt. has in the eyes of the people, the better) and has a very good chance of being shot down by the US supreme court (that's what this entire thread is about, other "blue" and "red" states moving to follow suit).
As for this- obviously, yes. Considering all the farces they're trying to hit him with, I don't even blame him- might very well be that presidency is the only thing that can save his head. If they could just kill him and be done with it, they would have already done so IMO. But let's not kid ourselves, he's only aiming for what Biden and the establishment two-party monopoly already have, and Biden practically embodies- all that "God Emperor protections" shit? That's old news, and Trump's own pursuit of the same now is because of all that passes for lawfare, coming down on his head.
My take on things? Hell, if he does actually end up winning and being allowed to return to the presidency, he would have to be suicidal to not only pursue said protections, but strike right back at those targeting him right now (I'm aware it's not just "Biden and co," but describing it as that was most succinct). But let's not forget, the ones who instigated all this, who have done what Trump himself didn't during his 4 years in office- the blatant suppression and perversion of the legal system that is currently going on- and this is all hypotheticals, what Trump "could do-" what is going on right now, and what is most likely to continue well past when Trump likely winds up in a cell, maybe for life- is all this and more under the "establishment" political bloc which encompasses the overwhelming majority of Democrats and Republicans alike, and the political blob of various govt. agencies, economic interests, and general bureaucracy that makes up the US status quo- the "deep state," if you will (and they certainly behaved as a "deep state" in their targeting or obstructions of Trump, who, while no less of a imperialist, stepped on no small number of toes in domestic politics, and acted in quite a few ways in opposition to their imperialist designs- for instance in regards to his trying to pull troops out of Syria, or his not escalating things overly much with Russia, etc)
I don't know, the regular forces are as you describe but the various state national guard units seem like a real mixed bag. I could see some of them going along with their governor in a balkaniation-type scenario
A conscript who works 5 days a week at Enterprise Rent-A-Car or Walmart is hardly on the same level of a US Marine.
They would be garrison troops at best, or military police. They would be slaughtered in any actual combat, as they were in Iraq.
You are confident the United States Military wouldn’t join a right wing uprising?
Okay.
Led by who? With what ideological backing?
At best it would be a coup. How would a Republican dictatorship differ from the current US government in ideology?
Theocratic law, like the evangelicals have been trying to establish
There is no theocratic consensus. They would turn on each other instantly.
Do you believe that Evangelicals would work alongside Catholics? Hell, there are so many flavors of evangelism alone that would never work together.
Catholics would have their set of ideals. Mormons and Latter Day Saints would have a different set. Evangelicals would have another. Protestants would also make up a sizeable majority. Who gets to decide the theocracy?
For example, abortion, over 60% of Republicans and Christians were hostile to removing Roe v Wade. How would a theocratic leadership ever hold anything together without instantly devolving into infighting?
I mean, the Air Force is run by an Evangelical cult. It doesn't feel like a huge stretch to say that the guys with the guns (and flying machines that create tons of Good Troops LOOOOOOOOL) will end up in charge in this scenario.
By that note, the vast majority of the Navy is Protestant, and the Marine Corp is highly Catholic.
I would place more money on the Navy being in change in a Junta scenario if I’m honest. Plus, which branch is going to say no to the guys sitting in nuclear submarines? The air force with their aging bombers?
The Navy is also twice the size of the Air Force in sheer size, and they operate the worlds second largest Air Force funnily enough. Plus the navy is one of the few competent branches that would probably fare well in a combat scenario, unlike the Air Force which is used to dropping a few bombs on civilians and not facing any opposition.