this post was submitted on 22 Sep 2024
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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/29511054

The last time I met Evgenia Kara-Murza, it was a grim day in early March. The timing couldn’t have been worse. As we spoke, Alexei Navalny’s coffin was being lowered into the frozen ground in a Moscow cemetery. Meanwhile Evgenia’s husband, Vladimir Kara-Murza, was still incarcerated in a Siberian prison cell almost identical to the one in the Arctic Circle in which Navalny had been found dead, presumed murdered.

The prospects were so grim and the news from Russia and Ukraine so unrelentingly depressing, it feels almost unimaginably miraculous six months later to see Evgenia walk into the lobby of a London hotel, this time with Vladimir right next to her. Six weeks ago, he was in a Siberian gulag. Today, he’s a free man on a trip to London with his wife and their youngest son, nine-year-old Daniel, the result of the largest prisoner exchange between Russian and the west since the cold war.

Most people he met in the Russian prison system, “the police officers, prison officials, judges, prosecutors, they don’t believe in anything”. Most are not pathological sadists, he says, they were just doing a job. “But the Alpha Group, the FSB special unit that was escorting us, I saw ideological hatred. They believe in this stuff and that’s even scarier.”

Kara-Murza’s grasp of history underpins his certainty that Putin’s regime will collapse – quickly and without warning. “That’s how things happen in Russia. Both the Romanov empire in the early 20th century, and the Soviet regime at the end of the 20th century collapsed in three days. That’s not a metaphor, it was literally three days in both cases.” He believes passionately that the best chance of a free and democratic Russia and peace in Europe rests on Russia’s defeat in Ukraine.

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[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 30 points 1 day ago (1 children)

US and China will know before it happens. You'll see a mad scramble to secure nuclear assets

[–] Maggoty@lemmy.world 6 points 1 day ago (1 children)

If a render safe mission happens then they haven't just collapsed like before. They would have to be not replaced, causing an immense power vacuum. It's also functionally impossible to secure all the nukes of a country Russia's size. The military refuses to guarantee it even for India or Pakistan.

[–] can_you_change_your_username@fedia.io 6 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Missions to secure nuclear weapons happened when the Soviet Union collapsed and the Russian government invited the US in to do some of them. The missions wouldn't be to take the sites and disarm the weapons, the goal would be to make sure all weapons are accounted for, being properly maintained, and under the control of a government. It would be to make sure the Russian arsenal wasn't being sold or taken by splinter groups or extremists rather than to disarm Russia. I expect China would be doing a lot more of it than the US if Russia collapsed in the near future but the US as well as UN nuclear inspectors would almost certainly have a role.

[–] Maggoty@lemmy.world 5 points 1 day ago

That's quite different from the mad scramble. That's a normal process. Although in the modern day a new Russian government might instead invite the Chinese and EU. It would have the same effect while snubbing the US. It all depends on where they want to go with things.

[–] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 4 points 1 day ago

The US also bought Russian nukes. The nucleae material ended up being used as fuel for US nuclear power plants.

Also a huge part of building the ISS was to keep Russian rocket experts in Russia, rather then helping some other dictator.

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 33 points 1 day ago (1 children)

...

One of his generals marched troops towards Moscow a while ago...

I'd say that was a pretty big warning.

[–] burgersc12@mander.xyz -4 points 1 day ago (3 children)

That was a stunt, Putin wasn't even there IIRC

[–] niktemadur@lemmy.world 4 points 22 hours ago* (last edited 22 hours ago) (1 children)

Oh boy... another one of those 8D chess "false flag!" posts.

[–] burgersc12@mander.xyz 1 points 22 hours ago* (last edited 22 hours ago)

But was Prigo-whatever really gonna go all the way to Moscow? I don't think he was serious (maybe he had a death wish?)

[–] Bernie_Sandals@lemmy.world 13 points 1 day ago

Stunt by who? Prigozhin? Definitely. Putin? There's no way in hell.

[–] Maggoty@lemmy.world 6 points 1 day ago

Sure, Putin had a laugh. While the guy's plane was going down.

[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world 28 points 1 day ago

True enough if it happens. Putin seems to have his Oligarchs convinced he can form a coalition with China, India, Iran and North Korea that can stand against the west.

At least they're convinced for now. If that changes, the rest of the world will find out posthumously.

[–] HowManyNimons@lemmy.world 35 points 1 day ago

If it could just go ahead and collapse quite soon, that would be great.

[–] Valmond@lemmy.world 24 points 1 day ago

Revolution is three meals away.

We'll see how winter will be for the russians this year.