Likely voters are those that have voted before, that's what makes them likely to vote again. For the most part they're the more accurate people to be polling.
Skyrmir
joined 1 year ago
I'm starting to question 538s predictions not because there is any problem with the models, but because there is a filter on what polls they choose to include. I don't want to call it bias, it's just a blind spot that their model isn't getting all the input for.
Of course it's not like anyone else is doing a better job either.
It's also not even appealing nudity. It's not even up to uncanny valley level yet, it's just awkward textures that resemble people.
No one outruns a radio, and pretty much never a helicopter either.
That and they're on the pedo peddlers Rolodex. It's starting to scream of CYA.
And Kennedy and Byrd. It's a running shit show of politicians thinking they'll live forever, or never lose an election. When what every one of them needs to be doing from day one, is prepping a successor in the public eye. A simple "thanks for electing me, and keep an eye on this awesome dude that wants my job too."
Stop hosting them and set up a permanent Olympic village in Greece with international funding. Standardized facilities and courses.
Not talk about what I'd do if a fascist government were to start looking for people like me.
Not collapsing democracy and making women into chattel is actually a really good campaign selling point. A hopeful future is great and all, but from what I've seen so far, fear and anger and way more motivating right now.
AOC and the left didn't want Biden either in the first place. It's not like the left is going to go vote Trump.
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Because new voters are a rounding error smaller than the error bars of the sample size.
Polling is pretty much like the unemployment rate. Any individual reading is meaningless, it's a multitude of readings over time that give any useful information.