This is good news. But you know, just to be on the safe side, let's all go vote for Joe anyway.
this post was submitted on 31 Jan 2024
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Winning California by a lot of votes doesn't matter if he loses Texas, Florida, Michigan, and Ohio.
Don't you guys love how 70% of the country just doesn't matter because everyone already knows what they'll be. So we get to only focus on a few of the most fucked ones to decide the election.
I love the Electoral College, I love FPTP voting, I hate popular votes. This is okay. We're gonna be okay. Everything is okay. Somebody please tell me it's going to be okay.
The world is more fucked up than it should be but it's also mostly better than it's ever been. There's no guarantee that either of those things will continue to be true though. Did that help?
If you're in a state that you know will vote exactly the way you would (by such a large margin that it can do it even if everyone thinking like you stays home), check what local candidates and propositions and such are on the ballot and whether there are any of those where your voice needs to be heard.
Of course, the answer might still be no - I've sat out elections in the past where I could see that my vote on every issue would just be running up the score on the side that had already won (and this did turn out to be correct). But it's worth checking just to be sure. There's more to elections than just congress and president.
It's going to be okay.
If you prepare now for the civil war, yeehaw!
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some polls say he's losing some key swing states...
but also, i once worked at a call center that conducted political polls... in my own experience, they're total bullshit and normal, average, representative of the population people are not participating in these polls at all....
It's going to be a very long election cycle
Always has been...
Denial
Anger
Bargaining
Depression <--- we are here
Acceptance
Wtf is a dabda (/s)
It’s fucking January.
The sex month
it sure beats Masturbating September...
Please, it's Self-love September
Someone help me develop a drinking problem. I'm gonna need it to get through the next year.
-
Step 1: Start Drinking
-
Step 2: Don't Stop
This sounds expensive. I'm poor.
Ignore other necessities and beg for drink money
due to the liquor laws in america, certain types of booze have very high quality standards....
namely Vodka, Scotch, and Bourbon...
(vodka must be made into nearly pure ethanol and then diluted, scotch must be aged 3 years in scotland... so it's always decent, and bourbon has a bunch of fun rules too... i don't really like bourbon though)
the health part always makes me stop my drinking problems though... i just can't handle it...
getting a little tipsy consistently is possible to maintain a functioning alcoholism though... be sure to stay extra hydrated and alcohol inhibits vitamin absorption... so... whatever
Damn, no wonder I have a drinking problem.
Can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning!
Ah that's where I went wrong, I got stuck on step 1, thanks!
"The key to avoiding a hangover is to never stop drinking" - Col. Tigh, Battlestar Galactica
Have you considered smoking? Alcohol gives me a headache. But there's many options on things to smoke - tobacco, weed, fentanyl, etc.. /s
I've tried it; it doesn't help.
Turn on Fox news and take a drink every time someone says something stupid. Two drinks if it's a debunked lie. See you in 2025!
Odds are slim they'll survive to 2025 drinking at that pace.
"Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden.”
I got an idea, let's attack Taylor Swift! That'll help with our female-voter gap!
Imagine if 14 year-old girls could vote, it would be a landslide
I think Swift's main demographic is actually in the bracket 16-25 so plenty of voters there. The younger teens are, generally, into more fresh/new acts and stuff with more of an edge. Swift has been around for a long time now.
Yeah it might skew even higher than that. I'd say up to mid 30s almost at this point.
Republicans have already blamed her for costing them an election (Tennessee, maybe?) simply by telling her followers/fans to go vote. Not to vote for any particular race or candidate, just to go vote.
There's still a lot of eligible non-voters. Trump activated a non-trivial portion, but there's a lot more available to whomever can harness that power. Taylor Swift might be able to do it.
Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn't have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
Arizona: Trump +3 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan: Trump +5 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Minnesota: Biden +3 same problem as New Mexico, it's an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Nevada: Trump +8 to +12
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Biden +8 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Pennsylvania: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin: Trump +5 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:
Trump wins, 322 to 216.
This is a change from the last time I posted this where Trump won, 278 to 260. Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania are all polling for Trump instead of Biden.
Previously, Biden needed to pick up +10.
Now he needs to pick up +54 which is a much, much, steeper ask...
These polls are useless too, without knowing who was surveyed (online, landlines, etc.). Also, polls this far from the election are just useless in general. Democrats are going to say they don't like Biden until it comes time to vote.
Most people remember the daily idiocy of the last time that smelly fatass was president. It's not a surprise. Democrats are going to come out and vote against Trump like they did before. They just don't care about answering polls to say they like Biden.
The same thing happened in 2020. Trump had a ton of rallies and Biden had none. Biden still kicked Trump's ass despite not being "popular".
The polling bias is more notable than ever in a world where no one under 40 answers their phones.
Eh most people under 40 aren't going to take a day off work to go vote either
Do they only poll via phone calls? I'm not a dinosaur, so Google Voice screens anybody not in contacts by asking their name. This defeats most robodialers, and having done a couple jobs which included political polls, you only get the call and poll script on your screen once the robodialer has confirmed it didn't reach a voicemail.
You'd get random campaigns based on what numbers were in the robodialer for the timezones it picked. You could be talking to some old guy who was lonely and wanted nothing more than a detailed talk about Ford trucks in between your questions about Ford's latest models, and the next call be questions such as, "if X candidate were to take a stronger position against giving free lunch to school kids, would the chance you vote for them increase, decrease, or stay the same?"
I did not last long at either job as it is soulkilling work
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Haley leads Joe Biden 1 on 1
Thank you to Republican primary voters for making sure our mediocre candidate can't lose, go collect your prize of... I don't know, bank statements showing how much money you've thrown at the orange shit gibbon over the years and some stupid looking hats?
It's far easier to break things than maintain or build upon them. Always has been the case and always will. Such is entropy.
I confess Biden wasn't even my third choice in the 2020 primaries. But I voted for him anyway, and I'll vote for him again. Because, truly: democracy, equality, justice, truth, and the planet itself is on the line.
Also interesting to note that the this same poll has Haley beating Biden by 5 points if Trump is not on the ballot and Haley is the Republican nominee .
However, put Biden and Haley on a larger ballot with RFK Jr and the other nobodies running on 3rd party tickets, and Biden ends up winning again.
There is also zero chance Trump doesn't run. Either he's the nominee or he runs third-party and splits the vote. His ego (and legal trouble) simply won't allow him to sit this one out.
If Trump is not the nominee, or if he is judicially removed from the ballot, then he will still run as a write-in candidate.
And even if he doesn't run a write-in campaign, plenty of his supporters will write him in anyway
And even if he would get struck by lightning and pass away prior to November, his supporters would likely just write in Don Jr or Vivek or someone similar.
Under no circumstances is Nikki Haley ever getting even 80% of Trump supporters to vote for her in November. And if she can't get that, then there is no way she can beat Biden. A Nikki Haley victory in 2024 is not plausible
Biden could also die before the election. He's no spring chicken. Then maybe we get Haley vs Harris? Or some other dems jump into the primary race.
or if he is judicially removed from the ballot, then he will still run as a write-in candidate.
He's being removed from the ballot in states because they consider him ineligible to be president. That's not something that gets solved by a write-in.
That doesn't change the fact that his supporters will write him in even if he is found dead on the shitter
Good for Joe Biden.
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