this post was submitted on 01 Jan 2024
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Obviously it's a process that is always brewing under capitalism but you know what I mean. Do you think we are close, like within 5 to 10 years close to a major declaration of war between the imperial core and the periphery or something of the sort? Would you argue it's already started?

I see Palestine liberating itself, I see solidarity with them along the people, I see the ripples that the Ukraine conflict has started, I see more and more revolutionary sentiment building. Could be an experience bias because now I'm more involved in real life so I see it more, but things just seem to be accelerating and I'm here for it. Much work needs to be done to capitalize and educate/funnel us all towards a progressive revolution and not a reactionary one, but I'm ready

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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 44 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (2 children)

Yeah. The problem with predicting timeframes is that all these gradual, quantitative changes result in qualitative changes (that is, sudden fractures) which make it difficult to give estimates. The gradual march of NATO's army eastward in their military offensive against Russia over the last three decades, conquering Eastern Europe as they went, led to the sudden faultline of Ukraine activating. That there might have been an event like this at some point, in some place, between Russia and NATO was perhaps predictable - but the time and place and result was not as predictable. Similarly, in Palestine, that there might have been some existential battle between the Zionists and the Palestinians might have been predicted, but the time and place was not so (regardless of how much Israel copes that they actually saw the attack coming), especially because Hamas didn't even tell their closest allies they were going to attack in order to preserve the surprise element as much as possible.

In geology, there's two dueling concepts of uniformitarianism and catastrophism. The first assumes that the natural world around us is formed by gradual, small-scale processes, like the erosion of a beach and the slow construction of a mountain range. The second assumes that instead, short, large and violent events are more important - a meteorite crashing into the Earth, or a supervolcano erupting, or a massive flood. While uniformitarianism pretty handily won the debate overall, it would be folly to say that occasional violent events haven't been extremely important. The meteorite that ended the dinosaurs fundamentally changed the Earth's biosphere, and was essentially totally disconnected from the Earth system. Even inside the Earth system, when Lake Agassiz in North America released its massive quantities of water into the ocean about 10,000 years ago, global sea levels rose relatively quickly by up to 10 feet and disrupted oceanic currents and possibly resulted in temporary cooling, with all the knock-on impacts that had on the Earth and humanity.

World events work similarly to geology, though obviously on a much smaller timeframe. The world, its nations and corporations chug on, day to day. Sudden events from both outside and within the system - sometimes predicted in advance - can have massive and fairly unpredictable impacts and lead to major changes. The United States may not have been able to take its position as the quasi-hegemon if not for the World Wars, and while a great European conflict was predictable beforehand, all the effects it would go on to have - the fall of the Russian Empire and the rise of the USSR; massive changes in the Middle East; the eventual end of colonialism; etc - were much, much less predictable. If you were in 1910 and decided to merely plot the gradual effects that you expected capitalism to have on the world and said "Well, according to my model, capitalism will end in 2142 due to the tendency of the rate of profit to fall and an inability for imperialists to continue governing the world. It seems that the British Empire's apex will continue for another few decades and perhaps steadily decline all the way to the 2100s, based on comparisons with the Roman Empire..." then you would be mighty shocked when just 10 years later, Europe was on the brink of a communist revolution.

So, for that reason, I find time estimates rather unhelpful. Like many others, I have talked about how the US probably has a few decades left as an empire - and that might very well be true - but this is assuming a gradual decline without sudden events. If you'd have told me just in 2020 that the US of three years from then would be unable to protect shipping routes through the Red Sea from Yemen despite having two/three aircraft carriers and various other naval assets throughout the region, I would have said that you're bonkers. If you'd have told me that Russia was almost singlehandedly taking on the combined might of NATO in a proxy war and not only winning, but winning very convincingly, I would have said "There's no way that they're actually fighting without nukes dropping, and how could Russia resist NATO anyway, given all their problems?" If you'd have told me pre-October 7th that Israel would very soon be in the worst crisis in its history due to mostly the efforts of Gaza, I would have been like "Well, that's a nice thought, but we can't really expect the population of a concentration camp to be able to resist their prison guards to that extent." God knows what sudden events will happen this year.

[–] TeezyZeezy@lemmygrad.ml 17 points 10 months ago

I definitely get and agree with what you're saying. There is, of course, no way to reliably predict any of this. Sometimes I just like to try to call the shots when I have a feeling something, erm... QUALITATIVE is about to happen, lol

[–] TeezyZeezy@lemmygrad.ml 14 points 10 months ago

That is brilliant and hope-filling.

[–] Krause@lemmygrad.ml 34 points 10 months ago (1 children)

i think historians in the future will consider the conflicts in syria or ukraine the start of WW3

[–] cayde6ml@lemmygrad.ml 23 points 10 months ago

I think it's possible, but I think this is more of a prelude than the actual war.

[–] SadArtemis@lemmygrad.ml 33 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (1 children)

I think a revolution of sorts is visibly underway, though it's not necessarily, strictly, a proletarian revolution (it does involve it in many regions, and it paves the way for it in other parts of the world).

It's a revolution of nations against the system of Anglo-European, white supremacist, imperialist empire and hegemony- a revolution that, in the face of both the unparalleled evil of the crackerverse, and the empire's decline- is seeing disenfranchised, exploited, and divided nations from across the global south and (parts of) eastern Europe- of all sorts, communists, liberals, Islamists, monarchies, even the proto-fascists like the Hindutvas- coming together for one beautiful common goal, to free the world (and primarily themselves) once and for all from the scourge of humanity that is western imperialism.

Whether world war will come out of that is another matter. I don't really dare say one way or another, TBH- I'd like to hope things can reach a point where the west can be properly contained and their present state institutions dissolved if need be (IMO it will be needed for the west to ever rejoin the rest of humanity). I'm not so optimistic as to say that's how things will go, though.

[–] cayde6ml@lemmygrad.ml 15 points 10 months ago

"Crackerverse" I fucking love that term.

I really love your overall comment though. I do have some lite criticism though. This might not mean much coming from me, and this is a problem I share blame for as well, and it's extremely hard to predict and plan for the future, but I feel that the genuine left isn't doing near as much as we should in the grand scheme of things. It's amazing that capitalism is so close to collapse, but I'm very worried that just because many people will be cheering for it, that we need to root out and exterminate the right-wingers, monarchists, fascists and other douchebags alongside the collapse, otherwise they will take advantage of the collapse, if they can't be persuaded otherwise.

I believe that the ultimate battle for the future of humanity is coming soon, and I am cautiously optimistic.

[–] DankZedong@lemmygrad.ml 32 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Maybe a war first and then a revolution. Or a revolution during the war.

If 2023 has shown us anything it is that the rest of the world can and will stand up against the West. And that The West isn't the unbeatable force the pretend to be. With this much tension happening in the world, with Palestine and its surrounding allies, China again saying reunification with Taiwan is inevitable, China's BRI in Africa and the rise of BRICS and of course Russia I do think we will see war between the west and others at some point soon.

Because with the rise of fascism in Europe and the US I don't think they will go out without a fight.

[–] cayde6ml@lemmygrad.ml 15 points 10 months ago (2 children)

I've said it before, and I don't mean to be a doomsayer or present myself as having foreknowledge (my grandma thinks I'm [psychic though) but I feel in my bones that something BIG is coming this year in 2024, for better and worse. A big "moment" that signals the forward trajectory of this planet, or a series of moments. I believe that at our current technological level and with the global world order on the edge of collapse, the ultimate battle for the future of humanity and life on Earth in general is fast approaching, or at least fast in the grand scheme of things.

I'm concerned and excited and pessimistic and hopeful.

[–] redtea@lemmygrad.ml 7 points 10 months ago (1 children)

I get the same sense of living in a twilight zone. It's like the world has taken a collective deep breath and we won't know what will happen until the out-breath. Maybe that won't be in 2024. But the longer the world holds in that breath, the more force it will be expelled with.

[–] cayde6ml@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 10 months ago

Beautiful way of putting it

[–] PoY@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 10 months ago

ive had similar feelings in years past.. big things happen all the time whether or not we hear about them or even understand their ramifications until much later on

[–] Munrock@lemmygrad.ml 31 points 10 months ago (1 children)

I think it's possible, but I don't think it's likely.

World War isn't in the Global South's interests. Multipolarity is giving them opportunity to prosper.

World War might be the last option left for preserving Western Hegemony, but the decision on their side won't be made in the interests of preserving Western Hegemony, it'll be made in the interests of the capitalist class that controls it. And for them, war is a gamble. They'll only gamble if they don't see any other way.

And tbh I think this is why Israel is going off-script. They know the USA's empire is shrinking, they know that the USA won't be able to afford propping up a puppet in West Asia for much longer, and they know how the USA treats allies that have outlived their usefulness. The Zionists are gambling because they know they don't get to keep their Zion if things continue to progress peacefully towards decolonization.

[–] QueerCommie@lemmygrad.ml 19 points 10 months ago

World War might be the last option left for preserving Western Hegemony,

It’s the only conceivable option, but it still couldn’t save capitalism.

[–] Jennie@lemmygrad.ml 28 points 10 months ago (2 children)

I don't think the kind of World War 3 most people envision with nukes flying everywhere is ever going to happen but I do think we're in the beginning stages of a new major world conflict and it's alarming.

[–] TeezyZeezy@lemmygrad.ml 12 points 10 months ago

Totally agree.

[–] bleepingblorp@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 10 months ago

I'm not as optimistic. Proxy war leads to conventional war leads to nuclear war.

[–] Mzuark@lemmygrad.ml 28 points 10 months ago

I don't know about revolution, but in the Middle East events are now unfolding that can't be undone. Yemen, Iran and Israel are going to have a direct conflict in the very near future. Taiwan is happening eventually, but China is smart enough to wait and Ukraine/Russia is literally just us exhausting ourselves by giving all this equipment to a losing cause. It's funny in an ironic way, when you think of how history is taught in the states I bet no one ever thought that the US would be the aggressor in WW3. But that's what's happening, the Biden admin isn't "sleepwalking" into a World War this is 100% the plan.

[–] QueerCommie@lemmygrad.ml 26 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (1 children)

I’m no fortune teller, but I’m certain decades will continue to happen in weeks. I just finished reading Socialism or Extinction and Ted Reese clearly shows how falling rate of profit is making the final crisis of capitalism highly likely in the coming years. The imperial core is incredibly weakened by its overgrowth of excess capital. They are getting increasingly desperate and the drive to war is actually deepening the crisis. There is no getting out of it for capitalism, and socialism is the only way out for the species. If we can keep getting more organized and spreading clear and consistent theory we can win. I highly recommend the book, I just wish there was a post Covid version. I’ve sent it to friends and family in the hope they’ll like it as much as I do. If people understand why socialism is the only real option they will choose it.

The core isn’t unified enough to wage war. It’s not unlikely there will actually be Inter-bourgeois conflict.

One more thing, SoE references multiple times that the Bolsheviks only had 8,000 members just months before the revolution. That is a comforting fact.

[–] TeezyZeezy@lemmygrad.ml 16 points 10 months ago (1 children)

It's not unlikely there will actually be inter-bourgeois conflict

That's kind of what I mean. Like others have said, I don't see nukes flying/world ending scenario anytime soon, but large redistribution of power and yes, bourgeois infighting which will create perfect conditions for a revolution.

Wow, that Bolshevik fact is seriously comforting.

[–] QueerCommie@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 10 months ago

Lots of people care but don’t have the time or energy right now. When more are immiserated they will be in the streets. Even if they actually don’t need us because of AI and such all that means is a far greater base for us to work with.

[–] ShimmeringKoi@hexbear.net 24 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Yeah. If nothing else, the fact that so many of the dumbest, angriest and most armed people in "my" country are convinced of it makes it seem like a self-fufilling prophecy

[–] axont@hexbear.net 11 points 10 months ago

None of those people know how to get organized nor do they want to. When they try something it always ends up looking like Ruby Ridge or a sudden mass shooting. They don't know what they want other than individual acts of spontaneous violence. The state already enforces white supremacy and terror upon the poor.

This is our advantage though. At least we know you have to get organized to do things.

[–] olgas_husband@lemmygrad.ml 21 points 10 months ago

big changes, most definitely.

socialists revolution, i don't think so, as far as i know the only ongoing revolutionary process is in the philipines, meanwhile most of the world pcs are having a hard time rebuilding a movement, for example recently the brazilian communist party had a split

[–] FightingGirlfriend@lemmygrad.ml 21 points 10 months ago (4 children)

We'll know by the end of the year. I'll spare you all the reports from my astrologer friends, but I'd say it's all going to hinge on the US elections this year, as well as the 50 other major elections worldwide. If the decrepit establishment of the US empire think that they could lose the election to a political outsider, I'd say we can expect a major false flag or a huge war to justify not surrendering their power. Probably against Iran but who knows.

These maniacs have it in their mind that they have to take all these nations down before 2030, when they reckon they'll be too weak to fight them.

Failing that, I think they'll fall back on their lessons from post-WWII. If enough nations are in ruins, then you can flood them with money, buy up all their companies, and have them utterly dependant on your exports. Hell, we can already see it happening with all these German companies and Taiwanese Semi-conductor industry.

[–] FightingGirlfriend@lemmygrad.ml 23 points 10 months ago (1 children)

I'm also thinking about Germany mulling madatory conscription, the constant headlines from European states that they need to get ready for another continental war. Isn'treal trying to start a major conflict with Hezbolla, Yemen and Iran, plus the constant Taiwan rattle-sabering.

My one hope is, in the universes consistent rule of irony, that the West with its already near total deindustrialisation and gig economy, that the beast is already far to decayed to pull any of this off. That and our rulers are dumber than a bag of rocks.

[–] QueerCommie@lemmygrad.ml 16 points 10 months ago

in the universes consistent rule of irony,

It’s called dialectics, the universality of contradiction. The accumulation of great masses of surplus capital leads to a crumbling economy.

[–] QueerCommie@lemmygrad.ml 18 points 10 months ago (1 children)

I agree in general, but I’d like to add that WWII was a new lease on life for capitalism. It was pushed to the brink of its limits of capital accumulation culminating in the Great Depression. There was a great mass of surplus capital that hindered production. The wars destroyed that surplus by decimating European industry. This essentially set back capitalism to a time when the profit margins were higher due to high portions of variable capital. The US got lucky in this scenario as it’s capital remained in tact, so it was able to export and become rich of the new imperial vassals it exported to. Imperialism is the export of capital to places where the rate of profit is higher.

I won’t pretend I’m an expert, I just recently read ‘socialism or extinction.’

[–] FightingGirlfriend@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Oy vey. Well lets hope that wont happen again, but I doubt that the US is going to really be personally be affected by by any conflict it starts. Beyond all the dead poor people they throw into whatever meat grinder they get going.

Also I might have to give that book a read.

[–] QueerCommie@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 10 months ago

I wouldn't bet on the empire having a chance. The drive to war is only harming capitalism at this point, though also a lot of real people. Definitely read it.

[–] ButtigiegMineralMap@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 10 months ago (1 children)

U.S. Elections will be weird with this whole Trump ballot fiasco. Will he be banned on more ballots? Will he be written in? Will delegates and superdelegates even respect Write-in votes? Will Biden finally fucking die before the election? So many questions

[–] QueerCommie@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 10 months ago (1 children)

He’s only being blocked in democrat states, so it won’t matter.

[–] ButtigiegMineralMap@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 10 months ago

Idk, Colorado has always been a swing/Republican State, and that’s where this began. I admit that most of the other states are Dem, but still the question remains, will (super)delegates concede to write-ins? I’m not as big of a history-buff as I would like to be, but isn’t that unprecedented(actual question, not rhetorical)? Having a write-in candidate being a majority or at least a sizeable percentage of the vote? Seems like it isn’t a very stable system of governance if they don’t recognize write-in votes as legitimate when they expressly allow it

[–] JK1348@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 10 months ago (1 children)

I want to know your astrologer friend, do they have a channel?

[–] FightingGirlfriend@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Fraid not, they're a swamp witch back home. But the Astrology Podcast can be okay. I just have to find some lefty astrologers online.

[–] JK1348@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 10 months ago

I would love to see more Marxist astrologist

I followed one in Twitter during the pandemic that's as amazing.

I would love to pick it up myself but I'm busy at the moment learning something else

[–] Ronin_5@lemmygrad.ml 20 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Capitalism will consume itself. As socialists, we have be ready so that when it does, society will be turning to socialism as the solution and not fascism.

[–] QueerCommie@lemmygrad.ml 17 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Fascism is still capitalism, it is just in extreme decay. The state does every possible thing to maintain capitalism without holding back to save face. It cannot last. If it wins it just means a more miserable road to extinction.

[–] Ronin_5@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 10 months ago

That is true, but I feel like there needs to be a distinction between capitalism and capitalism in decay. So I used the term fascism, as it helps get my intent across.

[–] jlyws123@lemmygrad.ml 18 points 10 months ago

The unjust world economic structure has been shaken and a world war is inevitable.

[–] mughaloid@lemmygrad.ml 14 points 10 months ago

In India we have casteism and hindutva fascism.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 13 points 10 months ago (1 children)

I would argue that the process has indeed started. We're seeing US being humiliated on every front, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the emperor has no clothes.

At the same time, China continues to go from strength to strength and BRICS is becoming a whole alternative economy.

I expect we'll see a lot of amazing things happening where the grip of the empire has been loosened. We're already seeing Africa starting to become decolonized, US being pushed out of the Middle East and from Latin America. These trends will only become stronger and reinforce themselves.

I do think that things in the west will keep getting worse before they start getting better. I completely agree that education on why the system is failing is and what to do about it are the key tasks for communists in the west right now.

Another important bit of education is to help deprogram people from hating existing socialist states like China. It's going to be crucially important to be able to point to these as successes of socialism to be learned from as opposed to be feared.

[–] JoeDaRedTrooperYT@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 10 months ago (1 children)

As well as mistakes. One of the big criticisms I have is China being too soft on the bourgeoisie and how LGBT ppl were treated in some socialist countries.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 10 months ago

For sure, and in general I think it's important to understand that whatever form socialism takes in any particular country is going to be rooted in its history, culture, social norms, and existing material conditions. Every socialist nation develops in its own way, so the things we need to look at are general transferable ideas that can be implemented in the local context.

[–] hglman@lemmy.ml 11 points 10 months ago

The forcing event will and already is climate change. At some point pood production will be dramatically affected and all the existing systems will snap. Hunger is the motivation that actually causes change from with in.

[–] deathtoreddit@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 10 months ago

Hmm, some new material for uncontrolled Blowback... on the other hand, though the Western hegemony may not die in a mushroom cloud, but in a prolonged struggle secession...

[–] JoeDaRedTrooperYT@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 10 months ago

Unlikely but possible