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There are over 143 million Russians and only 38 million Ukrainians. With similar demographics my point still stands Ukraine needs at least a 5 to 1 ratio or higher to bleed Russia dry of fighting age men.

I agree with you on support, but Russian society can absorb horrific losses before there is any danger of revolution. Perhaps the one thing that Putin is very good at is managing his rivals and keeping the oligarchy in line. He knows he has to win to keep them in line and will do so at any cost to Russia.

You mentioned the first Chechen war but not the second one. How did that war turn out?

WWI saw huge losses of over a million men. While Russian losses are high they are nowhere near that number today.

The Crimean war saw Russia take strategic losses while in direct conflict with the largest powers of that time. The loss of Crimea itself would be a strategic loss but nothing Ukraine can realistically do beyond that is at the same level. Nor is Ukraine a major power.

I’d agree with you on Afghanistan. It is probably the closest analog to Ukraine. The position of the Soviet Union was economically unviable and they were forced to pull out shortly before the USSR dissolved. Russia's current economy is in the same position. But Afghanistan was a ten year war. Can Ukraine hold on long enough with Western support to push modern Russia over that same edge? I don’t think it would take ten years to destabilize Russia, but I don’t know that Ukraine can keep this fight up or keep Western powers involved long enough for that to happen.

Well 100x is two orders of magnitude, so, it was technically correct.

Both sides learn. Sometime i ask myself if americans believe that the americans and their allies are the only smart people in the world. You have seen too much hollywood movies...

Even if Russia totally breaks Ukraine's military, we can just go back to the original plan America had before they realized that Ukraine actually held the line: armed insurgency. Think Iraqi insurgency against America with the tenacity of the Maripol defenders.

Can the EU make up for it? Even if they can, will they?

Yes and yes. Switching the economy just into 1st war gear would totally obliterate Russia economically, and the EU will because without committing to victory like that there'd be no way to stop Poland from putting boots on the ground (not to mention Russia winning which everyone knows would be a total disaster). Another scenario would be the EU extending Article 42 protections to Ukraine without Ukraine being a full member (where procedures must be followed) and setting an ultimatum: Remove all troops from Ukraine or we're going to do it for you. Oh and the UK would be included in that they may be a carillon of bellends but luckily their foreign office and military are sane. I don't think that's realistic as long as Ukraine can hold out while the EU is gearing up production, though.

See the strange thing about this is that in Russia's mind this is all about the US because they think, or at least Putin's KGB mind thinks, that we're taking orders from the Seppos. If the US is out of the picture and with it the old cold war fencing duel the overall stakes of conflict lower, which makes engagement more likely. Heck, it might even be the case that Russia then withdraws voluntarily because Putin can sell it as a win: "We have vanquished the US and freed Europe from its imperial grasp, the world is now multipolar". Don't worry about it making sense or not, nothing on Russian state TV makes any sense, it sounds good that's what counts.

Are there any elections coming up in EU support heavy countries where that support could flip like in USA? Can Putin wait that out?

Slovaks are up and sending weapons isn't terribly popular there, the current government is already stopping deliveries because, well, they want to be reelected. Reason though is as far as I understand mostly because they're broke, more of a "can we sit this one out, please" attitude. They're not, after all, Serbs (who aren't in the EU).

Hungary is another topic but with PiS gone in Poland (Tusk is again PM) they've lost their protection (possible Polish veto) so Orban is walking on very thin ice right now when it comes to getting suspended from the EU. He's not going to risk that, Hungary is too reliant on the EU for him to survive that politically and we've all witnessed how it went for the UK. Being smarter about it than the UK isn't hard but Hungary does not nearly have the resources and connections and wherewithal to deal with things like the UK could have used if they weren't see my previous insult.

I only play 5d chess.