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281

Can a socialist ex-marine fill Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia? (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 11 months ago by Salamendacious@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

67 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Zach Shrewsbury faces an improbable task to replace the conservative Democrat in the face of a Republican onslaught – but he won’t be put off

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[–] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 53 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (5 children)

The party can't find a candidate further to the right than Manchin, and Manchin isn't seeking re-election because he knows he can no longer win.

Moving to the right has failed. Even if Shrewsbury loses, and I'm so fucking delighted to say this, he's the best candidate you have. If he doesn't win, it's because centrist Democrats stayed home when they didn't get their first choice and didn't want to vote blue no matter who.

If he does win, centrists were lying about progressives not being able to win red states.

[–] rockSlayer@lemmy.world 36 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Centrists have always lied about progressives being able to win in red states. The key in WV (and most red states) is a heavy emphasis on worker power and advancing organized labor.

[–] blindbunny@lemmy.ml 14 points 11 months ago (1 children)

You forgot about gun rights. But nobody wants to talk about that... And I'll get down voted for mentioning it.

[–] rockSlayer@lemmy.world 11 points 11 months ago (1 children)

They would need to take a Midwestern stance on firearms most likely. Tbh a socialist would likely fit the role nicely. As the saying goes, "you get your guns back when you move far enough left"

[–] blindbunny@lemmy.ml 4 points 11 months ago (2 children)

May I ask you to expand on that? What stance do Midwesterners take on gun rights?

Also, oddly I didn't get downvoted.

[–] rockSlayer@lemmy.world 8 points 11 months ago (1 children)

The Midwest has a weird stance on guns in general. Even the most staunch liberals in the Midwest oppose "assault-style weapon" bans. The emphasis has been on raising the bar to ownership without heavy restrictions after reaching that bar.

From my experience, there's also a very healthy gun safety culture. I have some friends that are dumber than a box of rocks, and even they never touch their guns after any kind of drinking or drug use. The restrictions on using guns as a minor mixed with the very popular activity of hunting means anyone that has any genuine interest in guns has at least 5 years of training before they can even purchase a gun.

[–] blindbunny@lemmy.ml 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I agree with all of this.

To be clear though a minor has 5 years of training before they can purchase a firearm am I understanding that correctly?

[–] rockSlayer@lemmy.world 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

It's a bit of extrapolation, my bad. The Midwest (or at least my state) doesn't allow anyone under the age of 12 to go hunting with a firearm. At the age of 12, the kid must graduate a 6 week state-ran hunting/firearm safety course. After that, they must be within a certain distance of a legal guardian at all times if the gun is loaded. Because of the instilled safety culture, safety is also enforced by the guardian. They can purchase a gun at age 18.

[–] blindbunny@lemmy.ml 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

These are extremely fair rules. I was much younger when I started shooting and I wish I was raised in a more safety oriented gun culture. Thanks for sharing this. May I ask what state this is? I'm assuming Michigan.

[–] rockSlayer@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

Close, but no cigar! I live in Minnesota. From what I hear, our gun laws are very similar to Michigan. Iowa and Wisconsin aren't as strict, but the safety culture seem to cross state lines from what I've seen

[–] qprimed@lemmy.ml 5 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Also, oddly I didn't get downvoted.

its a legit question. I also want to see the the parent poster says, but I tend to agree

socialist rifle association is a thing and I personally know strongly left of center peeps that are protective of their gun rights for all the obvious reasons you might care to think of. makes sense in many ways.

[–] blindbunny@lemmy.ml 3 points 11 months ago

I think I'm just used to the other site and getting down voted for any mention of gun rights support.

I'm aware of SRA and dig what I've seen them do near Tucson. Maybe I should join.

[–] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Centrists have always lied about progressives being able to win in red states.

I hope he has direct funding from individual small donations. If he relies on party funding, they'll yank the rug out from under him like they did with Vallejo and then gleefully announce that progressives can't win.

[–] rockSlayer@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

I hope he goes to the DSA for funding. They're the best socialist org equipped to fund a campaign, CPUSA simply doesn't have the money.

[–] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

I just hope he doesn't rely on the Democratic Party. I've seen how that ends.

[–] OldWoodFrame@lemm.ee 9 points 11 months ago (1 children)

If he doesn't win, it's because centrist Democrats stayed home when they didn't get their first choice and didn't want to vote blue no matter who.

No, it means Trump voters refused to vote for him when enough of them were ok with voting for a centrist Democrat.

69% of West Virginia voted for Trump. You cannot win without at least some of them. We shall see if a self described Socialist can get enough of them but it doesn't look good.

[–] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 14 points 11 months ago (1 children)

No, it means Trump voters refused to vote for him when enough of them were ok with voting for a centrist Democrat.

Already addressed that. Manchin's not seeking re-election because he knows that centrist Democrats' only strategy of moving to the right has failed.

[–] OldWoodFrame@lemm.ee 5 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

But you claimed that Shrewsbury losing would be because centrist Democrats didn't come out to vote for him and that's just not (necessarily) the case. Any Democrat needs all Democrats to win in West Virginia, but they also need much more than that. That is why a centrist Democrat like Manchin had a chance to win multiple times in the state. That strategy isn't "failed," it's the only reason we're even talking about a Democratic Senator from West Virginia.

If there is an alternative strategy that can win West Virginia as a Socialist Democrat, it would truly be unprecedented, that would absolutely cause a big shift for political strategy in the party. But a Socialist Democrat losing in West Virginia doesn't prove anything, that's the obvious outcome everyone expects.

[–] Pipoca@lemmy.world 6 points 11 months ago

If he doesn't win, it's because centrist Democrats stayed home when they didn't get their first choice and didn't want to vote blue no matter who.

Why do you think that?

West Virginia used to vote Democrat, but has swung pretty hard right in recent years.

The last time the state voted Democrat in a presidential election was for Bill Clinton in 1996, who got 51.51% of the vote. Obama only got 35% of the vote in 2012, and neither Hillary nor Biden got over 30%.

Currently, Manchin is the only Democrat left in statewide office. Everyone else either died or retired, or they switched parties.

Why do you think that the only possible explanation for Shrewsbury losing is centrist Democrats not 'voting vote no matter who' instead of Republicans outnumbering Democrats in the state?

[–] Salamendacious@lemmy.world 5 points 11 months ago (2 children)

West Virginia has pretty equal numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans (36.5% & 36.8% respectively) so this will be a battle over turn out and convincing the remaining voters. We'll see where his numbers are in six months.

[–] Blackbeard@lemmy.world 8 points 11 months ago

Comparing party registration is a useless exercise. In states with open or semi-closed primaries unaffiliated/independent is always going to be a sizable bloc, and those voters almost always vote with one party or another (i.e. they're not truly independent swing voters who can be swayed). Just because WV has a huge chunk of independent voters doesn't mean the partisan lean of voters is anything close to even. West Virginia is an R+22 state, and the battle will be much less about turnout than it is about messaging and recapturing the attention of the working class.

[–] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

this will be a battle over turn out

And I fully intend to hold centrist Democrats responsible for their turnout or lack thereof. The party is as entitled to their votes now as it was when it was demanding progressives' votes for Manchin. And I'm not expecting the candidate to do a fucking thing to please centrists. They're not Republicans. That was enough when it was Manchin. Remember, progressives vote with the party 95% of the time!

[–] Salamendacious@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Bernie took w Virginia over Hillary, I think if he raises enough money and communicates his message well people will respond to him. My gut says that Jim Justice will get the Republican nomination and he will be a difficult candidate to beat. He's won governor races as a Democrat and a Republican. Trump likes justice and Trump won west Virginia handedly. The odds are stacked against Shrewsbury but I still think he has a good chance if he can establish his own story and not let justice paint him as some crazy Marxist.

[–] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Maybe. But the centrists will need to vote blue no matter who, like they've been screaming at any progressive who is less than pleased with people like Manchin.

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[–] Lauchs@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

It's a little silly to declare that no matter what the outcome, the test proves your case.

[–] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (7 children)

Really? Up until now, every time a centrist is protected by the party, we're told that it's because progressives can't win. Every time a centrist loses, it's because progressives stay home.

If the test seems silly or unfair now, it was silly and unfair when centrists were using it, and you had no complaints then.

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[–] PrincessLeiasCat@sh.itjust.works 24 points 11 months ago

That would be amazing. Wishing this guy nothing but the best.

[–] ZombiFrancis@sh.itjust.works 20 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I think if Shrewsbury gets people out to vote, he has a chance. WV has low voter turnout, maybe its electorate could mobilize for a socialist.

I highly highly doubt it, but sure, he is precisely the type of candidate that should be running instead of Manchins.

[–] hydrospanner@lemmy.world 19 points 11 months ago (8 children)

Yeah don't use the S-word, but lean hard into workers reform, pro-union, safety nets, etc.

Basically run on those ideals but don't use that term.

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[–] loopedcandle@lemmynsfw.com 18 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I think he's trying to be WV's John Fetterman. Good on him. I hope he can pull it off.

[–] Salamendacious@lemmy.world 10 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Let's be honest. He'll need to be a lot better than Fetterman. Pennsylvania is much bluer than west Virginia and Dr Oz was a pathetic candidate. I really hope Fetterman is laying a solid reelection foundation right now because his reelection run will probably be more difficult. Jim Justice is known statewide, he's wealthy, and has won the governor's mansion as a Democrat and as a Republican.

[–] jeffw@lemmy.world 5 points 11 months ago

I doubt PA will be more red in 6 years. It's always been a tight race, but besides Trump, it's generally been tight in the dems favor. When the GOP held onto Toomey in '16, it was because the dems put up such a shitty candidate (oddly enough, that's because Fetterman took the progressive vote and the most conservative dem won the primary that year)

[–] Perfide@reddthat.com 16 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

Not if he actually describes himself as a socialist.

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[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 16 points 11 months ago

If you can, donate to his campaign. I'm kicking him a five spot every week from here on out.

[–] nl4real@lemmy.world 13 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Glad to see him running, but an incredible longshot with how corrupt our state politics are.

[–] Salamendacious@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Are people you know talking about him right now?

[–] nl4real@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Nope.

[–] Salamendacious@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago

That tells me more than anything else. He needs to get his message out of he wants to have a chance.

[–] Cyberflunk@lemmy.world 7 points 11 months ago (1 children)

*former Marine

[–] agitatedpotato@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago (3 children)

They know exactly what they did with that title tbh

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[–] BigMacHole@lemm.ee 7 points 11 months ago

Why would Patriotic Republicans vote for an Ex Marine who isn't backed by Corporate Interests?

[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 6 points 11 months ago

Sure. He can definitely win.

The idea that we exist on a political spectrum complexly misrepresents the political reality we live in.

[–] autotldr@lemmings.world 4 points 11 months ago

This is the best summary I could come up with:

Charles Town, West Virginia, was where state authorities executed the abolitionist John Brown after he led an attack on a federal armory a few miles down the road in Harpers Ferry, a pivotal moment in the lead-up to the civil war.

In recent years he has used his power as a swing vote in Congress to stop several of Joe Biden’s legislative priorities – attracting the ire of progressives and prompting Shrewsbury to mount a primary challenge.

Political analysts do not expect voters to elect the Democratic candidate – whoever that turns out to be – and predict Manchin will be replaced by either Governor Jim Justice or Congressman Alex Mooney, the two leading Republicans in the Senate race.

In the years that followed, he guarded the perimeter at the US base in Guantánamo Bay, and was deployed to Japan, Malaysia and South Korea before eventually moving to Seattle and then returning to West Virginia, where he realized how bereft his home state was of the prosperity he saw elsewhere in the country and overseas.

Since 2020, Shrewsbury has helped towns dig out from flooding, door-knocked in the narrow Appalachian valleys – known as hollers – to find out what residents were looking for from the state legislature, and talked to mayors and city councils about the opportunities presented by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which incentivizes consumer usage of renewable energy, including home solar panels.

Despite the state’s conservative leanings, Sam Workman, the director of the Institute for Policy Research and Public Affairs at West Virginia University, believed Manchin may have had a path to victory had he decided to run.

The original article contains 1,291 words, the summary contains 272 words. Saved 79%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!

[–] dylanmorgan@slrpnk.net 2 points 11 months ago

God I hope so.

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