Can we please stop obsessing over the polls when we still have a full year of campaigning to get through? Let's at least hold off until Super Tuesday, okay?
this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2023
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You don't have to obsess over the polls, but polling data is valuable information for those who vote in primaries.
If a primary voter likes three candidates more or less equally, but one polls really bad and another really well, then that can help make an informed decision to select the candidate with the best chances to win the general.
Except they're not telling us the quality of the polls. I'm guessing a bunch of these are shitty polls.
"We polled five people at the Fuck Trump Convention if they would vote for Trump. Extrapolating this data, we can see that nobody in America will vote for Trump next year."
Polling in the US hasn't been super accurate the last few go rounds. That's likely due to the market being flooded with shitty low efficacy polls but it does make it hard to believe news that announce "polling says"
That's not necessarily true. The polls in 2022 were extremely accurate. The fact that the media created a "red wave" narrative despite the polling is a totally separate issue.
This polling won't help you vote in the primaries. In the primaries you vote for whomever you feel is the top candidate. Then in the general you vote for the best candidate left. This is just click bait.
Or the convictions come in.
It’ll be interesting to see how that changed things. Particularly in Georgia. The “party of states rights” wouldn’t dare break trump out of jail… would they?
Of course they would.
From Francis Wilhoit: “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”
https://crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/liberals-against-progressives/#comment-729288
Seriously, we are on the cusp of being beating over the metaphorical head with all the political nonsense for the next year...let's enjoy the small moments of peace we have.
Well, that does seem to be what this guy is saying. The polls indicate Trump would win the primary and is leading or equal with Biden, this guy says otherwise.
Right. And the only thing that needs to be said about such polls this far out is "talk to me again in six months." We're much too far out to be prognosticating election outcomes based on polling data from yesterday.
I think the polls, at this point, are more for the campaigns to make adjustments and the media to generate content.
"He's stronger than Biden." "He's weaker than his Republican opponents (none of whom could beat Biden)." "He's strong." "He's weak."
FFS, make up your mind. This is why these polls don't fucking mean shit.
Fascism requires that you be strong enough to defend against your foes, while the foes have the power to keep you down.
That's true, but this isn't Fascism. This is pollsters coming to wildly different conclusions, hence my frustration at both the disparate polls and polling this far out from the election.
Plus, Trump gets a defacto 30% of the GOP vote, because that's how many of them are his cultists. There is no fucking way he's weaker than his Republican challengers.
GOP pollster. Read the article. The guy is creating propaganda.
Who's promoting fascism here?? The ... news agencies on behalf of Democrats? Just because different dumb news polls turn up different doesn't magically equal the simultaneously strong/weak fascism trope. Stop using "fascism" as the response to everything. It doesn't even make sense here.
In between jan 6th and project 2025, you are claiming the GQP isn't fascist?
I think they're saying that the previous person, who quoted the enemy is both strong and weak thing about media reporting on Trump's polling, was not pointing it at the correct people, because a dispirate group of journalists/pollsters are portraying Trump as both strong and weak. Confused articles disagreeing with each other on the rocking boat that is polls a full year out does not a fascism make, is the point.
The article makes it pretty clear that the pollster himself is disagreeing with himself:
Luntz, who has provided polling and strategy for a number of high-profile Republicans over the years, suggested during a Tuesday interview on CNBC's Squawk Box that Trump's position in the general election polls was due to Biden being even weaker, arguing that candidates polling far behind Trump in GOP primary polls would do better against Biden.
GOP pollster. Read the article. It’s propaganda. (Not the article itself, but the pollster is generating propaganda.)
Thank you!
Fuck Trump and all, but these polls are asinine click bait
just fucking vote plz
Can we trust these polls? Feels like 2016 all over again
Lesson from today: If Trump is on the ballot next year, the GOP is looking at a wipeout of epic proportions up and down the ballot. Anyone remotely associated with him in non-blood-red states/districts (and even some red ones) will be fortunate to eek out a win. Republicans can’t win without moderates & independents, and his name is mud with them. Hatred for Trump nationally is much stronger than even peoples’ own economic self interest. Millions will vote against him and the candidates he endorses, even to their own detriment. Today is a harbinger of things to come if Republicans stay on this path.
Nixon fed the base beer. Reagan made it grain alcohol punch, and Bush Jr. broke out the moonshine. Trump is meth. His people will vote for him no matter what.
😂 I'm gonna copy pasta that 😁
Feel free. I've been repeating it since 2016...
Yeah, this "pollster" completely ignored all the surveys indicating a large anount of republicans are not even gonna vote if Trump's not on the ballot. It just sounds more like someone wanting to confidently declare a prediction for attention without actually analyzing the data for a proper understanding of public sentiment.
I'd go one step further, and include Wilson giving them bread. He segregated the federal government, refounded the KKK, and erected a bunch of statues of traitors that specifically asked not to have statues of them ever made. Not to mention a shitton of other stuff.
Thoughts and prayers 🙏 🌈
Not sure why this is even being shared. The story is more that this guy who has been wrong in the past is disagreeing with the current polling.
I keep hearing about these young voters who aren't backing Biden in articles I've read. Can anyone share some perspective on what might be the reasoning here?
Pollsters have no fucking idea whats going on and just send out regular feelers to a tiny fraction of americans to see how they would vote at that given time, often with loaded questions to help sway the numbers in which ever way they want the result to land.
Also younger voters have been shown to rarely respond to polls. Those that do are probably the strongest MAGA supporters that for some reason wear that as a badge of honer. So my assumption is these polls are deeply biased by who is actually responding.
Im 23, I dont have a land line, I don't answer unknown numbers, and I don't do online polls.
I am basically invisible from a polling perspective. I cant imagine its much different for others.
Edit: put 25 for some fucking reason im actually 23. I dont know why I put that wrong.
I have a landline and I picked up the phone last week for a poll and promptly hung up so polls to me are polling the weird Americans that would take phone surveys during dinner time
I'm not that young but I legitimately stopped responding to text polls because I'm not 100% sure a conservative organization wouldn't text out "poll questions" to start building a list of liberal citizens to fuck with.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Former President Donald Trump is the "weakest" major Republican candidate running in the 2024 presidential election, according to GOP pollster Frank Luntz.
The ex-president is also leading or even with President Joe Biden in most polls, despite much of his attention recently being focused on the avalanche of legal issues that he is facing, including 91 felony criminal counts and multiple civil lawsuits.
"I don't understand for the life of me why [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer and why [House Minority Leader] Hakeem Jeffries do not go to the White House and say, 'Sir, you've been a great president, you've done a good job for us, but it's time to move on," Luntz said.
Luntz incorrectly predicted that Republicans would sweep last year's midterm elections by historic margins, claiming that they would achieve "between 233-240 House seats" and win back the Senate.
In reality, Republicans performed far worse than most political observers predicted, winning back the House by a smaller-than-expected margin and remaining in the minority in the Senate while Democrats picked up a seat.
Many observers, including some Republicans, did attribute the Republican 2022 midterm failure to Trump's involvement, especially since high-profile Trump-backed GOP candidates including Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker lost races that tilted control of the Senate.
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