I am cautiously optimistic about this.
First, the reasons not to be:
- The Kennedy name might conceivably attract some confused Democratic votes.
- His spoiler candidacy will obviously be targeted at Biden supporters and intended to siphon them away.
But I'm still cautiously optimistic because:
- We already have a well-known guy with the last name "Kennedy" in the Senate: This absolute tool, a Louisiana Republican and all-around douchebag that Democrats universally despise. So name recognition effects may be blunted a bit.
- RFK's poll numbers in the Democratic primary as a hypothetical alternative to Biden have stayed consistently 45-50 points below Biden. Most Democrats aren't going to jump ship to a hopeless independent candidacy and cede the race to Trump.
- RFK is immensely popular... with deranged wingnuts who still believe the COVID vaccines have microchips in them and are the sign of the Beast. These people weren't gonna vote Biden in the first place, and there might be enough of them in the Republican party for RFK's candidacy to be a Trump spoiler instead.
I'm going to be paying really close attention to see which side he siphons from more, but like I said... I'm cautiously optimistic RFK will have a more damaging effect on Trump than on Biden.
If Trump goes after him hard, I'll take that as confirmation that Trump is worried about that.