this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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GenZedong
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How do you figure that? Wagner faced little to no resistance all the way up, they even had local police joining their convoy. Then, it took negotiations with Belarus to get them to stop. How does that show support for Putin's government?
To me, it sounds like Wagner didn't really want to shed Russian blood, they simply wanted guarantees of support in the form of supplies and ammunition. They apparently got what they wanted from their talks with the Belarusian President. However, that doesn't change the fact that many people outside of Moscow were willing to either stand by and let pass or stand with Wagner.
Literally everyone of any importance in Russia basically told the Wagnerites to listen to Putin and stand down. Even people in the street went up to them and asked them to come to their senses. The fact that this didn't get violent is a testament to both the maturity of the Russian society in general, and the confidence of the Russian government in being in complete control as well as their ability to remain calm and not react emotionally or rashly in a crisis.
This was literally the best possible outcome. It would have only played into the hands of Russia's enemies for anyone to try and stop the Wagnerites using force. That would have escalated into a total shitshow and would have cost Russia valuable equipment and manpower. It was vital for everyone to remain calm and do nothing that could escalate into real violence. The fry cook got nothing except for being allowed to go into exile and not be imprisoned or killed...for now.
The unity that this little temper tantrum showed exists in Russia really pours cold water on any hopes the West may have had for a real coup. The West will of course try to salvage whatever they can out of it, they will try to twist the narrative to claim that this supposedly shows that Putin is weak because he didn't crush the mutineers with force, because he showed leniency and restraint. But that little PR win will be short lived and is ultimately a poor consolation prize considering this basically confirmed that whatever hopes they may have had for their strategy of drawing out the war until just maybe some black swan event happens in Russia that will lead to the collapse of the war effort are essentially dead.
This was their best chance of trying to precipitate an internal fracture by exploiting a crisis created by what can only be described as the mental breakdown of a degenerate lowlife with an overinflated ego, all while Ukie psyops were working overtime playing up grievances and disseminating fakes inflating the appearance of serious internal conflicts, and they failed. It turned out that the overwhelming majority of Russians - including all government and military power structures, and even the majority of Wagner - didn't take the bait and the whole gambit fizzled out.
The fact that the Kremlin prevailed so quickly and decisively, and most importantly without loss of life, and minimal property damage and disruption to civilian life, has just massively increased the stability of the state. Another beneficial side effect is that a number of western assets will also have been burned and many fifth columnists have exposed themselves. The FSB will be busy for the next few weeks looking very closely into anyone who was a bit too enthusiastic about supporting the mutiny. There will be purges that much is sure.
And finally, this whole episode will lead to the general enthusiasm for the concept of PMCs being somewhat lessened which is always a good thing. Mercenaries are yet again proven to be unreliable scum. Russia will almost certainly incorporate them much more tightly and with much greater oversight and control into the official armed forces now to prevent other similar episodes occurring in the future, which is good for discipline and general morale.
The Kremlin didn't prevail though, Prigozhin backed down only after speaking to Lukashenko. And we don't know the terms that this was ended under, but it would be a safe assumption that it would involve less integration of PMC's (or at least Wagner) than what was already happening, as this was one of the main reasons they started their march north.
Do you seriously believe that Lukashenko is just some random third party here? This was a way to provide a way out for Prigozhin and diffuse the situation.
I'm certainly not saying Lukashenko isn't in allegiance with the Kremlin, however it's true to say that the Kremlin didn't negotiate down the coup. Lukashenko did.
Also it's most likely these terms were somewhat favourable to Wagner and don't involve its complete integration into Russia's military and directly under MoD control.
I'm really not sure what point you're trying to make here to be honest. Kremlin found a way to resolve the situation without bloodshed, and where Prigozhin was removed from wagner while preserving wagner as an effective organization. Wagner is in fact now signing contracts with the MoD, so yes it is directly under the control of the MoD going forward. Basically, Russia managed to resolve the situation in the best way possible.
I'll distill it down for you:
If that's what you genuinely believe then what else is there to tell you. I also love how you just made up a whole bunch of stuff like Prigozhin's troops going to Belarus. You could totally get a job at one of US propaganda rags writing nonsense all day.
Got to love how ambiguous this statement is. Are you saying it wouldn't have been better to not have an insurrection in the first place?
I'm not making things up, I'm saying there is an implication that Prigozhin's most loyal troops, at least some of the 5,000-8,000 people who were involved in the march, might be going with him to Belarus. I can't imagine they'll want to stay in Russia any more than Prigozhin after this. They won't be allowed to work with the MoD, but they've been given protection under the deal and they have to go somewhere. Following Prigozhin to Belarus seems most likely.
It's certainly less far fetched than you saying that all of Wagner will be integrated into the MoD, which directly contradicts Dmitry Peskov's statement outlining the deal. Only some of Wagner will be given the opportunity to sign contracts. Up to 20,000 will have the opportunity, but not all will sign.
>PMC contractors who refused to take part in the mutiny - and whole units did not - will be allowed to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, Peskov said.
You are literally making things up here. There is zero actual evidence to support your claim that any wagner troops are following Prigozhin anywhere. You just pulled this out of your ass based what you can and can't imagine, and trying to sell that as some fact here.
Meanwhile, read the link you yourself posted till you understand what it says.
I didn't present anything as fact, you're the one distorting things here. I simply pointed out that many thousands of Wagner troops won't be a part of the Russian military anymore, and suggested that the most likely thing they will do is continue following their current leader.
It seems like a recurring tactic of yours is to deflect people to other things, without actually arguing a single specific point yourself.
There is nothing likely about that statement. The fact that you believe an absurdity does not make it likely. The facts don't support your assertions. And I don't need to keep justifying myself to you here. The only recurring tactic here is you confidently asserting nonsensical things and then acting like they're obviously true.
What any reasonable person would do is suggest an alternative likelihood. What will happen to the 5,000+ Wagner troops that the MoD won't allow to sign contracts?
If the 5,000 troops aren't going to be allowed to sign contracts with the MoD then they obviously become civilians. One has to be living in an alternate reality to think that they're just going to follow Prigozhin around like some praetorian guard. The fact that you even consider this to be a likely scenario shows that you have absolutely no understanding of the situation in Russia.
Most of these troops were part of the Storm-Z forces, people who were taken out of prison and granted freedom in exchange for service.
It's about as likely as Prigozhin making it safely to Belarus. One way or another, many of Prigozhin's troops are probably going to follow him.
You certainly sound like you're an expert on the subject, so whatever you say there.
The other technique you always resort to is attacking the credibility of the person you're arguing with, rather than arguing any specific point. This suggests you know your reasoning is weak.
Just to recap, you've made a bunch of speculation that isn't grounded in any actual facts. Then when you got called out on doing that you started spewing more nonsense. Now you're claiming that it's actually my reasoning that's weak. What an utter 🤡 you are.
You're completely forgetting the part where you said all of Wagner would be integrated into the Russian military, in contradiction with official statements.
The organization will be integrated, and there will be no more wagner as an independent PMC. It's absolutely hilarious you're still here, it's like you just need to keep talking because deep down you realize how wrong you are and you think that if you just keep adding more comments you'll dig yourself out in some way. 😂
What's hilarious is that you deflect and throw shade rather than admitting your mistake.
Wagner is not signing contracts, some troops from within Wagner are being given the opportunity to sign contracts. Not all of these will sign.
It's ok to admit you didn't explain things properly, you know. Rather than digging further and hoping you'll either bury others in your piles or get deep enough that no one will bother to look for you anymore.
😂
Ahem.
Putin literally offered what I said some troops might do.
Yeah, that's different from your claim that there would be a wagner in Belarus. Anybody with a couple of brain cells to bang together understands that Belarus wouldn't want a rogue PMC any more than Russia would after what happened. It's frankly stunning that you can't understand that and still trying to pretend like you had a valid point. The fact that you're still commenting on this thread is kind of hilarious. Seems like it's living rent free in your head.
Where did I say there would be Wagner in Belarus?
How many brain cells do you need to bang together before you start seeing sense?
I just love how you have this compulsive need to reply. Read your comments when you're sober maybe.
I have a compulsive need to call out bullshit where I see it, and you just keep giving me compulsions.
If by call out you mean spew, then you're bang on.
Where have I said anything that was bullshit? You're the one who kept making statements that contradict official announcements, all in an effort to throw petty insults that don't even hit the mark. You miss on your points, you miss on your attacks.
whatever helps you sleep at night
Damn lol someone else thinks your replies are low effort. I'm gonna give you an upvote out of sympathy.
hey it's you https://www.flamewarriorsguide.com/warriorshtm/troller.htm
I'm big cat with jekyll and hyde characteristics.
I definitely exhibit jekyll and hyde characteristics :)
Luka was almost certainly acting on behalf of the Kremlin because for image purposes the Kremlin could not be seen to be the ones making the offer of leniency to traitors, they needed to be the bad cop to Lukashenko's good cop. In the interest of avoiding a dangerous escalation Luka was used as an ostensible (but not really) "third party" to give the leaders of the mutiny who had backed themselves into a corner a way to still get out of this with their lives so that they wouldn't fight to the death and take valuable rank and file soldiers with them.
We don't know what the terms were exactly, we'll have to wait and see, but from what has been openly stated at least there is no indication that any of the demands of the mutineers were conceded to, personnel changes were not even discussed (imo there was never a snowball's chance in hell of the government agreeing to that, can you imagine how bad it would be for discipline to allow some uppity mercs to dictate who the commanders of the armed forces are? it would be an enormous violation of the chain of command!), and the integration of Wagner into the official armed forces has only accelerated.
On the whole i think this was unavoidable at some point because the contradiction of giving so much power and prominence to a mercenary group was always going to create conflict, but the way it was handled was just about the optimal way to do it and Russia will come out of this stronger. There will be some who will say that Russia should have foreseen this and not allowed it to come this far in the first place, and maybe that is true, but maybe it was also good it happened the way it did because it offers an opportunity for a more thorough cleanse and a more decisive break with previous policy toward PMCs.
More consolidation under the official state power structures is a good thing for when communists take over again. Mercenaries with too much influence and autonomy would be a nasty problem to deal with. And at the very least the image of Wagner and especially that of certain personalities involved with it is irreversibly tarnished in the eyes of the Russian public, and again i can't say that that is bad, they were getting too full of themselves and starting to have a negative morale impact by denigrating the performance of the regular armed forces without whom they could never have even operated the way they did to begin with.
The thing is, only those that did not take part in the march are being given the option of signing contracts with the MoD. That means there are significantly fewer Wagner troops available for Russia - the rest will presumably be going to Belarus with Prigozhin. Also, it sounds like they're still going to be PMCs, just with different contracts.
You make some good points but I don't think a lack of an attack signals a lack of support. Wagner doesn't seem like a junior to be trifled with, even if it was only a portion of the unit that headed to Moscow.
It doesn't make much sense to me for e.g. police to go vigilante and try to stop Wagner on the way up. It would make sense for an order to organise a defence to be coordinated beyond 'everyone between Ukraine and Moscow needs to individually try to stop Wagner'. If this had turned really bloody within Russia, I imagine the plan would be to ensure a quick victory and to plan for a defense where that was possible.