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Can we please give the armed forces of Ukraine finally airplanes? The offensive is going nowhere if they are not supplied with an edge in combat gear.
Unfortunately it’s not that easy.
They have already got a large sum of F16’s, but it takes training of Ukrainian pilots before they can be used in combat.
From what I understand they should be ready to fly in early 2024. That still a long time to go - but you don’t want to lose pilots or planes because of inexperience with that type of airplane.
Nothing the West is willing to provide is going to change the course of the war alone. That ship has sailed, this is back to an attritional war with positional fighting.
The only thing the West can do now is provide LONG term commitments, written in law e.g. locked in funding for 5+ years of arms transfers.
Unfortunately, I don't know how good the odds are that will happen. I hope it does, but we'll just have to wait and see.
The ONLY other way for either Russia, or Ukraine, to win, is a new technological development that enables a significant change to the current battlefield dynamics.
This is a fairly simplified analysis, but it does align with the most current assessments provided by both the Ukrainian and Russian military leadership.
3-4 months until planned delivery of F16s
The planes aren't what's taking time. The F-16s are either being used for training, which is totally unnecessary as that training takes place in the US, and we have a few hundred of the things pretty much just sitting around. The training of the pilots is what's taking time. I suspect Putin knows he's about to lose air superiority, and this attack is a demonstration of that. He's using what little weapons he has left, while he still can.
Haven't you seen the pattern:
Let some time pass.
Rinse and repeat.