Ukraine will probably get the NATO membership as a sweetener after the war. Realistically the war will only end through negotiations where unavoidably land will be lost to Russia in exchange for security guarantees.
this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2023
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Yeah, I agree that's probably how this is going to play out; Ukraine cedes some territory to Russia and is allowed to join NATO, hopefully safeguarding it against further Russian imperialism in the future.
In the meantime, we should of course keep supporting Ukraine as much as we can to give them as strong of a position in these potential future negotiations as possible.
As long as Russia retains even a toehold in Ukraine, NATO'll say conflict is not resolved, so can't talk of membership. Even in the Vilnius meeting, NATO did not even promise to start negotiations as soon as the war is over, They just said "Ukraine will become a member of NATO" which is just showing a carrot at the end of a long stick to keep the donkey moving. They have no intention to end the war. Just prolong it or freeze the conflict. Prolonging the conflict will give Putin to regain some strength, so they'll just use Ukraine to bleed Russia continuously but slowly.
There is no minimizing how self-servng and cowardly NATO is being at the cost of Ukrainian lives.
Membership can come quickly: Finland became a member rather swiftly. I figure most members would want the war the end as soon as possible because it's a moneydrain. European members are not eager to prolong a war just outside their borders.
The situation is different for the US of course. I don't agree with you on Russia: A prolonged war is in the best interest of the US as it weakens Russia over time. Their current economy and sanctions don't allow a long-term "military operation". Furthermore China can't rely on a weak ally if shit hits the fan in Taiwan. Ukraine is also a prime example on how willing the US is to support allies in a long-term proxy war.
The war will end when Russia gives up. The US will keep Ukraine supplied until then. It's a lot like Afghanistan vs the soviets.
Didn’t Biden just say the reason we are giving them cluster bombs is because both we and they are running out of other ammunitions?
The only thing the US is running out of is "extra" munitions. Cluster bombs were about enabling effective counterattack.
Thanks, that makes sense.
I really hope they're not that idiot and it's while they wait for production to increase.
There is pretty much zero risk of russia getting any teritory from ukraine. Russia will break apart before that happens.
There's no chance NATO'll grant Ukraine membership. It is right next to Russia, and NATO is scared to upset Putin.
There's a good reason that Zelenskyy states often & publicly that they'll take back Crimea. It is because, imho, NATO would be happy for Putin to have Crimea as a face-saver. But the Ukrainians have lost too much and know that kicking Russia out of every inch of Ukraine is the only guarantee that they'll be safe from future special operations.
NATO likes a weakened Russia but still wants to appease Putin. May they're afraid of what'll happen if he gets deposed. Or maybe he has kompromat on the leaders.
Finland is also right next to Russia, in fact St Petersburg is only 100 miles from the border. And by "border", that now means "NATO border."
So maybe NATO doesn't really care what Putin thinks about its membership.
One of the reasons of not granting NATO membership was indeed in fear of russian retaliation. Russia took Crimea and invaded Donbas since then even without the membership promise. Putin is already upset so no reason not to bestow the membership on Ukraine.
Kicking out Russia is next to impossible as they've dug in. What Ukraine has in superior weaponry, Russia has in numbers. Time is bad for both parties, but worse for Ukraine, as Western fatigue will inevitably come.
"There's no chance NATO'll grant Ukraine membership. It is right next to Russia, and NATO is scared to upset Putin."
While I agree that the chances for Ukraina bring admitted is next to slim I definitively don't agree with your opinion on why it will not happen.
You do understand that Ukraine is literally the only democracy in Europe that shares borders with Russia and is not a member of NATO?
Also, don't forget that Ukraine has sihnificant oil & gas reserves in the East as well as contributing an enormous amount to the world's food supply. Having the chance to get those things in the hands of a far friendlier country, I think NATO will put a lot of effort into getting Ukraine solidly on our side.
It is not a member of NATO because Merkel (Putin's useful idiot or agent, take your pick) would not allow it.
While I agree that the chances for Ukraina bring admitted is next to slim
Why, in your opinion, is that?
Ukraine?
More like:
"Your grain."
That's what the Grand Soviet said to Stalin before they passed a bill giving him dictatorial powers of 100% totalitarianism.
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