Well, we know the ML and hexbears are against this.
this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2024
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I literally saw this as a hexbear thread first. Somehow this is America doing this, and the only possible reason they could have is that America put them up to it, and as a result China needs to be more aggressive because they're too passive and kind right now.
Hehe. That’s the spin they would use.
You're gonna need more support from people in China.
Syrian rebels has the advantage of the people supporting the overthrow of Assad, there's no widespread dissatisfaction with Xi, separatist movements would just get crushed (unless you had foreign intervention ahem USA Support), you need can't just secede and get your freedom, you have to literally overthow Xi and the central government in Beijing, doesn't seem that likely to me. Xi also has nukes which Assad didn't.
That's not the only way for them to win. They can also just take over a territory and perform gorilla warfare that costs China so much that they have to just give up. Is that likely to succeed? Probably not. It's a lot more likely than trying to overthrow the entire Chinese government though.
guerilla*
I heard Ukraine has some new ways to fight wars. What was it? Stapping a bomb to a drone then colliding with stuff. Sure DJI can spare a few for the Chinese military.
Why even send soldiers when they'll just do drone bombings everyday till the rebels give up. Its not like China have to invade like russia had to, they already control the area, they only need to hold it, defence is much easier to do. Unlike Syria, China has much more resources, its one of the world largest economy. I think they have a way of crushing dissent. The only way the rebels can have a chance of winnning is if the US is willing to intervene. So that's the question, does the US have the will to go up against China? Think about all the stuff that the US still manufacture in China. All the electronics, etc... I don't think the US will go that far, not yet.
That's not really how a gorilla war is won. You don't just have targets sitting around to strike. You hit their supply lines and just cause mayham, and get the fuck out before they can hit back. You hide within civilians so your troops can't be found. You force the enemy in over-retaliation, which causes them to create more enemies and commit more resources to strike.
You hide within civilians so your troops can’t be found.
CCP literally just racial profiled them and put them in camps for "re-education". Many of those separatists, along with many innocents that aren't involved in the separatist movement, are already in those camps being "re-educated" (aka: brainwashed). According to some people that have been in the Xinjiang/Tibet regions, there are soldiers everywhere with checkpoints, and thee soldiers often go through the phones of anyone who pass the checkpoint. And cameras are everywhere. Not exactly easy for guerrilla warfare. A mere suspicion of being a separatist can have you end up in a camp.
The Syrian way of doing this was putting you into torture prison if they didnt like you at the checkpoint. The Israeli way of having a dozen checkpoints a mile and total surveillance still fails to prevent people from resisting the occupation in the Westbank
For sure it will be difficult with such an authoritarian state. I'm not arguing that. I'm just saying it wouldn't be the same type of war as Ukraine.
Alternatively if China gets involved in Taiwan, it would also be one of the best times to try to secede.
Difference being, Chinese military isn't as pathetic as the russian's
Well… that’s not clear. And if they invaded Taiwan - an action that would cause catastrophic economic effects in basically every single major country in the world, because part of Taiwan’s final defense strategy is “we will melt our chip foundries to slag before we let the PRC have them” - they’ll make a staunch enemy of nearly EVERYONE. It wouldn’t be a case of “military aid”. It would be a case of “almost everyone helps Taiwan defend themselves from China”.
It's not just Taiwan, the US would stink the island before China could seize intact chip labs.
Again, they wouldn’t need to. Taiwan has openly stated that wrecking their own advanced industry such that it can’t be co-opted is a specific point of their strategic defense plans vis a vis the PRC.
The problem with the Chinese military is that they have not participated in recent conflicts.
Syria is quite a long ways from China. Makes me wonder how serious they are. Then again, such operations aren't a foreign concept in the middle east, so what do I know?