I think that article is mostly clickbait. So much speculation going on and the comparison to Afghanistan is such a stretch. There is no sign of war exhaustion in the west. People might lose interest in following the conflict because it slowed down but Russia is such a big enemy in the minds of people that sending more equipment can go on for decades before voices grow to stop it.

And the fear that any peace that Putin can celebrate as a victory would only be a temporary peace is still very imbedded into the mind of many Europeans.

[–] Chup@feddit.de 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The title is total clickbait but the article is more thinking of theoretical options of events to come. E.g. how the end(s) of the war could look like.

Petr Pavel, Czech president & former general, already stated that at the end of the year, the window of opportunity might be closed for Ukraine and Ukraine should try to gain as much ground as possible before the winter. Not because of the weather, but because of elections coming in Russia, the USA and Ukraine in 2024.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-has-window-of-opportunity-this-year-to-take-back-territory-from-russia-before-war-fatigue-says-czech-republics-president-12918975

Not even talking about the possible election outcomes and possible consequences for the war, already the election campaigns with their goals, promises, propaganda and unique selling points might have influence on the events and further planning. Just imagine Trump (or successor) starting a new mesh of lies and getting supported by Putin, which will get soaked up by their followers and complicate support by the USA - the largest military supporter of Ukraine so far.

[–] APassenger@lemmy.one 0 points 1 year ago

Trump can fuck off to jail. I'd like to see him tried for treason.

DeSantis has shown he's a non-starter.

At this point they're hoping for a dark horse pro-retreat candidate.

[–] atlasraven31@lemm.ee 0 points 1 year ago

The best case scenario for Putin would put him in an inevitable and unwinnable war with NATO.

[–] GiuseppeAndTheYeti@midwest.social 18 points 1 year ago (2 children)

This article has no other reasoning for negotiated concessions becoming the more likely outcome other than, "winter is coming". This is just a doom reader fluff piece.

Ukraine is losing less men in their counter offensive than when they were defending the front, are receiving more weaponry and ammunition than ever before, and have been training on western military hardware for months that is soon to hit the battlefield. Sure the winter is going to slow Ukrainian advance, but this isn't the 1940's. Artillery, air support, and mortars can all reach further than ever before with near pinpoint accuracy.

[–] Phantom_Engineer@lemmy.ml 3 points 1 year ago

Telegraph does like their doom reader fluff pieces.

[–] Can_you_change_your_username@kbin.social 2 points 1 year ago

Also Russia has no experience advantage in dealing with their winter vs. Ukraine. Russian winter was an issue for France and Germany in large part because they didn't understand what they were dealing with. It's Ukraine's home turf. They know what winter means for them and are prepared for it.

[–] linkhidalgogato@lemmy.ml 8 points 1 year ago

damn lots of libs here on some serious copium

[–] erin@lemmy.sidh.bzh 7 points 1 year ago

"Never sell the bear's skin before one has killed the beast."

[–] atlasraven31@lemm.ee 5 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Last I read, Ukraine was switching to new and better weapons and Russia was resorting to older tanks and pensioners. I've never heard of anyone winning a war with last centuries' weapons.

[–] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I love how it ends with a discussion of how evil emperor Xi will be gloating in his crystal palace as he plots his imperialist take over of the indo-pacfic....

The same Indo-Pacific that actual imperialists, like the UK, France, US, Holland, Portugal, Spain, and yes, even Japan, actually took over, dominated, colonized, genocided, war crimed, and broke. The same region that is still trying to recover from the long military occupations and the continuous imperialism of the North Atlantic that still to this day makes it nearly impossible for its inhabitants to govern themselves, develop their nations, and reestablish their cultures after suffering massive and extended disruption.

But, it's Xi that's the imperialist for daring to say the US and other North Atlantians shouldn't be occupying, infiltrating, extracting, and spoiling the region, that war ships constantly patrolling the Indo-Pacific isn't merely inappropriate but actually must stop for the region to be able to develop itself independently.

[–] ninjan@lemmy.mildgrim.com -5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I'm with you until that last sentence. Letting China dominate the region for untold years is not a solution. I'm not saying the US or the "North Atlantians" are angles, no one is. But I strongly believe the correct choice of action is always going to be to maintain peace if at all possible. And currently it is by deterring China from taking Taiwan and growing their sphere of influence in violent ways.

[–] freagle@lemmygrad.ml -2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

LOL. Maintaining peace? Like the East Turkistan project of training terrorists? Like collective punishment through sanctions? Like organizing coups, funding violent right-wing movements, assassinating political leaders? These are literally things the US has done in just the last 5 years.

The North Atlantians are literally global belligerents. They have been for 500 years, non stop. They have killed hundreds of millions of people to fuel and maintain their expansion and dominance.

The world needs to contain the North Atlantic and stop their reign of terror. Not the other way around.

[–] ninjan@lemmy.mildgrim.com -4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Not arguing against that. But guaranteeing the freedom of Taiwan is a good thing. And for that to be effective/credible you must have a military presence. Very little is black and white.

[–] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

No, guaranteeing the freedom of Taiwan is not a good thing. You clearly have no idea of the history and politics at work.

Imagine the Confederacy, supported by France and England, managed to flee to Galveston Island off the coast of Texas. Imagine there were still Native American tribes there. Imagine the Confederates, mostly of Scottish, English, and French origin, killed most of the native people living on the island and set about building a Confederate society there that they could use to eventually attack the Union again. Imagine the Union wants to go after and get final surrender from the Confederacy, but the English and the French being their war boats in to intervene, negotiate with the Confederacy, arm them, offer them protection, and then spend decades building them up as a legitimate alternative to the Union, building their economy, arming and training them, and propagandizing them and the whole world.

That's Taiwan. Will get incorporated into mainland China. It has to. It's a security threat otherwise, because it's only reason for existence as a separate entity is literally for war. And the existential belligerent enemies of China are using Taiwan to advance their belligerence. Worse, the belligerent North Atlantians are willing to send every person on Taiwan into a meat grinder if it means weakening China and advancing North Atlantic goals.

Your position is built entirely on propaganda, false beliefs, and ignorance.

[–] ATQ@lemm.ee -4 points 1 year ago (2 children)

This is a lot of words and still you completely botch the analogy. Instead, you might suppose that the Confederacy had prevailed in their rebellion and that the democratically elected President Lincoln and the remaining Northern army had fled.

In reality, the government of Taiwan is the real “China”. Mainland Taiwan is populated by angry traitors.

Your position is built entirely on propaganda, false beliefs, and ignorance.

😂🤣😂 Classic. I’d link you to the Wikipedia article for your own education, but I’m sure that’s blocked for you.

[–] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Holy shit you're full of propaganda. Dude, I am a white settler colonist born and raised in America. Read some fucking Chinese history. The Kuomintang lost the civil war. It doesn't matter who you agree with or who you think the traitors are. The civil war was fought and won. And if you want to figure out "who the baddies were" just look at who the Europeans supported. Because the Europeans clearly demonstrated over 200 years that their interests are diametrically opposed to the Chinese people.

Who did the Europeans support?

[–] ksynwa@lemmy.ml 3 points 1 year ago

In reality, the government of Taiwan is the real “China”. Mainland Taiwan is populated by angry traitors.

On what basis are you claiming this?

[–] tallwookie@lemmy.world 0 points 1 year ago

the ukrainian war is as much a war for freedom from russian influence (for ukraine) as it is a proxy war against russia (for america/the west).

[–] Varyk@sh.itjust.works -2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Pppffff in what world is resisting an invasion by a much larger country with a larger military for over a year, a defeat? Even if Ukraine settles, they won this war.

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