politics

I'd rather vote for a literal corpse than vote GOP at this point.

I suspect that the debate was an "emperor has no clothes on" moment for Democratic politicians. Everyone already knew that Biden is old but no one who thought that was a big problem wanted to be the first one to say so. (Why risk being sidelined for disloyalty to the party in the case where you speak out but then no one else does?) The debate was just the tipping point that made age an issue the politicians were willing to talk about, but voters don't have the problem with being disloyal that politicians do so they had already taken Biden's age into account in a way that politicians publicly hadn't.

With that said, these national polls are fun for people who watch the election like a sporting event but they're a poor way to actually predict victory. How many electoral college votes each candidate will have is independent from his support in much of the country, where only a catastrophic event could possibly change a state's electoral outcome. Meanwhile in swing states the small difference in polls like this appears to be magnified in Trump's favor.

This is not good news.

Reminder:

• Biden was TEN POINTS ahead of where he is now back in 2020.

• Biden ASKED for this debate because he was already trailing in the polls and not where he needs to be. At best things remain the same, which is to say poor. At worst, they are worse.

• 2020 was decided by 40,000 undecided low-info apathetic voters in 3 battleground states. If those people remain apathetic and polls remain this close, Biden will lose.

• His own campaign staff is now reportedly saying they see no viable path to victory.

Further key points raised in this poll/article:

Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.

That said, politicians tend to be good political weathervanes, with their own high-quality polling, and several of the Democratic House members who have advocated for Biden to leave the race are from competitive swing districts.

Third parties pull younger voters, Biden doing better with those most likely to vote

When third parties are factored in, Trump and Biden are statistically tied, with Trump at 43% and Biden 42%.

It’s worth noting that NPR’s national newscast mentioned that, with 3rd party candidates, and since Biden is trailing significantly in key swing states, he would need to do be doing better in a national poll if he were to be doing well. Right now the odds are still in Trump’s favor.

If they're polling "likely voters" then it really shouldn't change. The people most likely to vote are usually also the most engaged, therefore they've already decided. I think most "swings" in the polls are just due to sampling. It's the unlikely or sort of "fair weather" voters that are going to make or break things. Also, gerrymandering and vote suppression.

Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.

And 60% polled said trump was going to win....

But I'm sure people are going to say this poll is good for Biden.

I see every headline references "polls" now. That's bad.

Yeah, that's about what I expected. No one cares that Biden is a low-energy gaff machine, because he wouldn't've ever been president. Biden had the opportunity to rise above expectations, and he failed. But that just means he performed as expected, and no one is going to think less of him for it.

Suppose the "best case" scenario for Biden materializes. He hangs on, remains the nominee, and pulls an upset against Trump in November.

Even in this scenario, I'd argue that his legacy is irrevocably tarnished. His decision in 2022/2023 to run would still be a terrible decision, like a poker player betting the whole pot on a horrible hand and winning by dumb luck. His staff would still be complicit in lying to the world. It would be the shabbiest victory imaginable... and all that before the question of how he lasts another four years in office.

This is the best summary I could come up with:

The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages.

“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character.

A Democratic presidential candidate typically needs a wider margin in national polls for that to translate to an Electoral College victory because of the nature of swing states.

That said, politicians tend to be good political weathervanes, with their own high-quality polling, and several of the Democratic House members who have advocated for Biden to leave the race are from competitive swing districts.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulled 8%, tied for the lowest support for him since Marist started including him in the survey in April.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the most likely successor if Biden were to decide against continuing his campaign, also gets 50% compared to 49% for Trump.

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