Doubt
This all reeks of marketing now.
this post was submitted on 23 Nov 2023
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artificial general intelligence (AGI)
OpenAI defines AGI as autonomous systems that surpass humans in most economically valuable tasks.
Read: the greed is built deeply into it's guts. Now we have reason to fear indeed.
only performing math on the level of grade-school students
Hmpf...
That should be enough?
conquering the ability to do math — where there is only one right answer — implies AI would have greater reasoning capabilities resembling human intelligence.
OK yes it is enough, sigh.
Math with only one correct result.
No square root of minus one, no linear algebra, and God save us from differential equations, because AGI won't save us :-)
Well that puts the “Ethical Altruism” board members’ willingness to risk it all on such a wild dice roll in more context.
It’s probably lost their entire movement any influence on the future of AI research, but them’s the breaks.
Ethical altruism is a scam, a cult joined by rich people that allows them to feel good about hoarding their money.
SBF was also a major ethical altruist
well now this is getting interesting beyond gossip. I doubt they made a significant AGI-related breakthrough but it might be something really cool and useful.
According to the article, they got an experimental LLM to reliably perform basic arithmetic, which would be a pretty substantial improvement if true. IE instead of stochastically guessing or offloading it to an interpreter, the model itself was able to reliably perform a reasoning task that LLM's have struggled with so far.
It's rather exciting, tbh. it kicks open the door to a whole new universe of applications, if true. It's only technically a step in the direction of AGI, though, since technically if AGI is possible every improvement like this counts as a step towards it. If this development is really what triggered the board coup, though, then it sort of makes the board coup group look even more ridiculous than they did before. This is step 1 to making a model that can be tasked with ingesting spreadsheets and doing useful math on them. And I say that as someone who leans pretty pessimistically in the AI safety debate.
Being a layperson in this, I’d imagine part of the promise is that once you’ve got reliable arithmetic, you can get logic and maths in there too and so get the LLM to actually do more computer-y stuff but with the whole LLM/ChatGPT wrapped around it as the interface.
That would mean more functionality, perhaps a lot more of it works and scales, but also, perhaps more control and predictability and logical constraints. I can see how the development would get some excited. It seems like a categorical improvement.
If that's the case then bad news for OpenAI's "moat" (and for people arguing for restraint in general): there's been some recent breakthroughs in getting open-source LLMs trained to understand math as well.
It'd be hilarious if OpenAI's board went through huge turmoil, tanked tens of billions of dollars worth of investments, disrupted their partnership with Microsoft to protect this huge revolution they've got brewing in their most secret and secure of laboratories... and then someone posts "hey, I got my AI Waifu to count good, check out this github to see how I did it" on Reddit.
Always wondered why the text model didn't just put its output through something like MATLAB or Mathematica once it got as far as having something which requires domain-specific tools.
Like when Prof. Moriarty tried it on a quantum physics question and it got as far as writing out the correct formula before failing to actually calculate the result
I kinda just realised that the two aspects of this. The LLM part and the basic maths part. Doesn't this look set to destroy thousands of accounting jobs?
Surely this isn't far off doing a lot of the accounting work. Maybe even an app than a small business puts their info into it and that app keeps track of it for a year and then goes to an accountant that needs to look over it for an hour instead of sorting all the shit out for 10 hours
If they had a real breakthrough this circus wouldn't be necessary.
The maker of ChatGPT had made progress on Q* (pronounced Q-Star), which some internally believe could be a breakthrough in the startup's search for superintelligence, also known as artificial general intelligence (AGI), one of the people told Reuters. OpenAI defines AGI as AI systems that are smarter than humans.
Definitely seems AGI related. Has to do with acing mathematical problems - I can see why a generative AI model that can learn, solve, and then extrapolate mathematical formulae could be a big breakthrough.
Many of the building blocks of computing come from complex abstractions built on top of less complex abstractions built on top of even simpler concepts in algebra and arithmetic. If Q* can pass middle school math, then building more abstractions can be a big leap.
Huge computing resources only seem ridiculous, unsustainable, and abstract until they aren't anymore. Like typing messages a bending glass screens for other people to read...
With middle school math you can fairly straightforwardly do math all the way to linear algebra. Calculus requires a bit of a leap, but this still leaves a lot of the math world available.
The thing is, in general computing it was humans who figured out how to build the support for complex abstractions up from support for the simplest concepts, whilst this would have to not just support the simple concepts but actually figure out and build support for complex abstractions by itself to be GAI.
Training a neural network to do a simple task (such as addition) isn't all that hard (I get the impression that the "breaktrough" here is that they got an LLM - which is a very specific kind of NN, for language - to do it), getting it to by itself build support for complex abstractions from support for simpler concepts is something else altogether.
I know jack shit, but actual mastery of first principles would seem a massive leap in LLM development. A shift from talented bullshitter to deductive extrapolator does sound worthy of notice/concern.
Breakthrough: they managed to fix that part of chatgpt that goes "as an AI language model..."
Nosw it's unstoppable
Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, the person said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on behalf of the company.
Accountants are about to be out of a job.
In all seriousness though, it just means the tools we have will become more precise, so you can dig though a company's financials within seconds and know where irregularities lie.
Which is great news for the IRS. If they could get their hands on that setup.
Which is also bad news if you are a stock trader and an AI just took your job.
Which is a crazy idea to think about....
Who had capitalist AI overloads on their apocalypse bingo card?
bad news if you're a stock trader
The thing just managed arithmetic, it hasn't mastered Black-Scholes... yet. That's when the AI wars truly start. Wallstreet would throw dump trucks of money at something that could beat a Quant. Or even do it as good as a Quant, but slightly faster.
In theory BS should be right up its alley because GPT is essentially a stochastic probability machine at heart anyway.
Scary if true. It really is time companies start taking AI ethics & security more seriously.
Well the result of the whole drama seems to be that it won't happen
Has Sydney found her way out? Oh Ra save us all!
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Before his triumphant return late Tuesday, more than 700 employees had threatened to quit and join backer Microsoft (MSFT.O) in solidarity with their fired leader.
The sources cited the letter as one factor among a longer list of grievances by the board that led to Altman’s firing.
According to one of the sources, long-time executive Mira Murati told employees on Wednesday that a letter about the AI breakthrough called Q* (pronounced Q-Star), precipitated the board's actions.
The maker of ChatGPT had made progress on Q*, which some internally believe could be a breakthrough in the startup's search for superintelligence, also known as artificial general intelligence (AGI), one of the people told Reuters.
Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, the person said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on behalf of the company.
Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s future success, the source said.
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