this post was submitted on 15 Oct 2023
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Poland election: first exit poll puts Law and Justice in lead but opposition coalition possible – follow live (www.theguardian.com)
submitted 11 months ago by albert180@feddit.de to c/europe@feddit.de
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[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 60 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (7 children)

good news:

  1. Looks like opposition gets safe majority, but not supermajority (neither 3/5 required for rejecting presidential veto and some other things or 2/3 required for changing constitution, finalizing some international agreements and some other things). Seems like PiS won't be able to get majority in any way imaginable
  2. The pro-russian bitches party, konfederacja, polled around 9% but in exit polls they scored nice 6.2%. It would be even better (and funnier) if they got less than 5%, which is electoral threshold, but i don't hold my breath for this one, they are already sorely disappointed after they got high on their own supply of propaganda where they found one poll with 13.4% support for them. They're kinda like AfD, in terms of better known euro parties
  3. Electoral participation seems to be record high at almost 73%. This seems to contribute to lower PiS score
  4. Parallel to elections there was kinda "referendum" with weaselly worded broad and imprecise questions meant to stir shit re: immigrants. However participation in this one is less than 40% and so it's not binding

bad news:

none. i'm drinking tonight

[–] ProcurementCat@feddit.de 16 points 11 months ago (2 children)

You can't imagine how happy I am about this. As a German government dude whose work is directly influenced by how competent and problem-solving foreign governments and ministries are, this will be a game changer.

Expect a lot more German-Polish cooperation for the next few years (until Germany gets their incompetent idiots again)

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

whoa whoa there, not so fast. first thing is forming the new government, then they'll spend a year or so unfucking up what pis fucked up and uprooting their people from some seats in public institutions, and then it's not a given that pis loses next election. but it's an improvement

[–] ProcurementCat@feddit.de 6 points 11 months ago

Yeah, sadly, I fully expect PiS to win next time again. Because no matter what the next government does (whoever it may be), it won't be paradise and just enough voters will most likely want to punish them for not making their lives perfect - and that's how the idiots are back in charge.

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 2 points 11 months ago

one thing that i'm gonna give to them: PiS kickstarted sorely needed modernization of polish army. turns out that's the problem that responds pretty well to pouring money at it. who could have guessed?

i hope this continues, even if limited in scale

[–] sznowicki@lemmy.world 11 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Konfederacja is not like afd. PiS is like AfD. Konfederacja is like a child of FDP with NPD

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 1 points 11 months ago

Nah i wouldn't say so. Konfa is more like AfD, PiS is more like CSU that got high on power and let intrusive thoughts win

PiS - Fidesz is also reasonable comparison

[–] albert180@feddit.de 8 points 11 months ago

Have fun, and thanks for the summary :)

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 7 points 11 months ago (2 children)

i voted today, ask me anything

[–] albert180@feddit.de 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

What did you vote and why?

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 13 points 11 months ago (1 children)

i've voted for our tiny (8.6% in exit polls) social democrat party Razem every time since they were founded

[–] sznowicki@lemmy.world 9 points 11 months ago

Hello my fellow Razemek ;)

[–] linucs@lemmy.ml 4 points 11 months ago (3 children)

What are you drinking? I really hope for you people in Poland and for all of us Europeans that the exit polls results will be confirmed by actual results.

Where are you following the results? And at what time should we expect final(ish) results?

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 4 points 11 months ago

expect late polls monday evening and final, official results somewhere around tuesday or maybe even wednesday

official results will be here: lower house: https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/pl/sejm/wynik/pl upper house: https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/pl/senat/wynik/pl

as for now everyone seems to be taking exit polls from ipsos, this is fine might be paywalled https://www.rp.pl/wybory/art39269471-wybory-2023-badanie-exit-poll-pis-wygrywa-wybory-opozycja-ma-wiekszosc-w-sejmie this is fine, even that it's owned by ringer axel springer now https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wybory-2023-opozycja-ma-szanse-przejac-wladze-znamy-mozliwy-podzial-mandatow/m1j15wm,79cfc278 guardian is fine, bbc is fine, everyone is reporting the same thing anyway from same sources

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 3 points 11 months ago

looking at partial election results something extremely funny is about to happen. check again tomorrow

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 3 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

ipsos late poll is out:

PiS 36,6% (198) KO 31,0% (161) TD 13,5% (57) Lewica 8,6% (30) Konfederacja 6,4% (14)

most likely coalition is KO + TD + Lewica with 248 seats, 231 needed for majority, 277 needed to reject presidential veto, 308 to change constitution

official results are expected tuesday evening or so

https://nitter.net/MarcinPalade <- this dude is a statistician, he posts results every time elections happen, rumors, exit polls, late polls, whatever you want, he has it

[–] linucs@lemmy.ml 3 points 11 months ago

Thanks man, have a great day!

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 4 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

schadenfreude delivery:

These are PiS high command's cheerful faces at yesterday's post-election conference. Technically they won elections as they got largest share of votes, but they won't be able to form majority government

[–] DarkThoughts@kbin.social 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

So, Elightened Centrism coalition coming?

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 5 points 11 months ago (1 children)

looks like KO + TD + Lewica, so socdems, centrist liberals, centrist-ish christian democrats and agrarians, overall proeuropean

[–] devfuuu@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago (2 children)

So, for an outsider, is this similar as current, more or less righ wing? Will Poland go back on some problems regarding lgbt..+ community or will persecution continue?

[–] Hubi@feddit.de 6 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

PiS are right-wing populists. The proposed coalition would be liberal/center left. So way less radical right-wing stuff and more support for LGBT rights.

[–] devfuuu@lemmy.world 1 points 11 months ago

thanks. That does sound good.

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 5 points 11 months ago

right wing populist are out of govt, better rule of law, judiciary, cooperation with EU, maybe even lgbt rights or abortion rights are in <- don't hold your breath for the last one because that one new christian democrat party is part of that coalition and it's unknown how will they behave

[–] dumdum666@kbin.social 3 points 11 months ago

Drink one for me :)

[–] Hubi@feddit.de 38 points 11 months ago (3 children)

How could Germany do this?

[–] albert180@feddit.de 10 points 11 months ago

πŸ˜‚πŸ‘

[–] hh93@lemm.ee 7 points 11 months ago

As a German I feel it's about time that "blame Germany" isn't enough anymore to win an election in Poland.

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 5 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

ironically german minority didn't seem to get MP this time, and they used to have two and later one every electoral cycle

edit: based on exit polls, there's still possibility that they do get it

[–] NanoooK@sh.itjust.works 16 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Just get rid of PiS please!

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

this seems to be done deal

[–] variaatio@sopuli.xyz 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Lot of people don't seem to understand how multiparty parliamentary coalition democracies work.

PiS was still biggest "oh dear". Doesn't matter, what matters is who can pass the confidence vote in Parliament and based on current estimates, PiS can't.

Oh since you seem to be Polish, who is likely to be put up as PM candidate by the new coalition to the Parliament to vote. I would assume Donald Tusk? Then again I know pretty much nothing of Polish politics.

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 2 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

coalition PM will be most likely Donald Tusk, but before this happens, it's likely that president Duda will customarily ask PiS, as biggest party, to propose their own PM, who would be Morawiecki, which proposal will be rejected. they can delay new government appointment this way by up to a month

this time there's coalition but each of these parties is actually also a coalition in a trenchcoat, because this way they avoid 8% threshold and instead have 5% one, so instead of 3 parties in coalition there's like 8 to 10 depending on how you count

[–] lulztard@feddit.de 16 points 11 months ago

Good to see their facism to die down the slightest of bits. Hopefully it keeps that way, but considering that Tusk sees no problems with Hungary, I doubt it. Just less rabid facism. But we'll see if he keeps going after women's rights, minorities' rights, Rule of Law and whatnot.

[–] DarkThoughts@kbin.social 14 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Not great, not terrible.
I think PiS still got way too many votes though.

[–] what_is_a_name@lemmy.world 9 points 11 months ago

Like in other places. It’s all about disinformation and control of the media. Polish national TV has not mentioned any opposition leader by name in years - and you can imagine how they report on what is happening in the country and the World. It sways people. As we very well know from everywhere.

[–] AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space 12 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Also, the weirdo Putinists appear to be underperforming, at least in the exit polls. Hopefully this isn’t just the shy-Tory effect of extremist voters lying about whom they voted for.

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 7 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

two election cycles ago they overperformed in exit polls compared to actual results and got under electoral threshold (4.76%, 5% threshold, polls at like 5.5%). their cope was major laughingstock for a few months

they are known for oversized online presence and habit of picking up highest results from shittiest polling company they can find and blasting it all over as internal propaganda. well they got high on their own supply and today many of party members, some of them who expected getting MP seat but not anymore, got big sad and didn't participated in party meeting scheduled after conclusion of voting

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 2 points 11 months ago

if you're looking for shy Tory effect, that works for PiS historically

[–] illi@lemm.ee 9 points 11 months ago

Hope exit polls will reflect the truth and you guys don't pull a Slovakia in these elections. My anxiety was never higher than the last week and would love to see good guys win for once.

[–] PhlubbaDubba@lemm.ee 9 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Come onnnnnn no shield for Hungary!

[–] thanksforallthefish@literature.cafe 8 points 11 months ago (2 children)

They have Slovakia as their new shield unfortunately

[–] PhlubbaDubba@lemm.ee 4 points 11 months ago

I'd say that's not so likely given Slovakia's actively claimed as "Rightful Magyar Clay" by Fidesz' ultranationalists

[–] hh93@lemm.ee 2 points 11 months ago

Wouldn't be surprised if Italy also steps in to stop sanctions against antidemocratic nationalists and populists in the future

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 2 points 11 months ago

i had some mean mojitos