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Even though he abandoned his effort in '24? That seems highly unlikely. It seems even less likely that he'd win in an open primary at this point.
he openly said he would only seek a single term when he went for the first one
I don't remember that, but if that was the plan, why did he start campaigning for a second one then? Was the pan all along bow out so close to election day that we couldn't have a primary election and just put Harris as the only D option?
If I recall, he decided to run for reelection because the alternative was Trump.
Giving up the incumbent advantage would have been extremely detrimental to the effort to prevent a second Trump Administration. I believe there are articles from that time about him making this decision.
Hindsight is 20/20 so I'm not interested in hearing about how it was a bad calculation or whatever. The rate of Biden's mental decay after that only increased.
No sane political operator would have held a Democratic primary given the circumstances at the time.
The alternative was always going to be Trump. Biden was never a popular president and they should have held the primaries when they were suppose to. Biden surrounded himself sycophants who told him he could win.
Biden's visible mental decline started way before the election. He has a history of angry outbursts, which when directed at conservatives was "fun" to watch for some people, but it only reminded me of how my conservative family members deal with disagreements. He was never a good pick, just a better pick over Trump. Not having a primary, even a shame primary, deenergized Harris's voter base. The people feel like they're being talked down to by the DNC and their right. This is the same shit that got Trump voted in in the first place, but more of it.
Not OP, but Occam's Razor applies here. Ever had a job you only planned to be at for a short time, but got comfortable?
I don't think Occam’s Razor needs to apply to world leaders.
Hanlon's Corollary to Occam's Razor can be applied, though. -Not that there's any meaningful difference between incompetence and malice when it comes to politics, though.
Hanlon's razor is shit, and it does not hold true in a modern capitalist society.
I mean, no? Lol. I was mostly being sardonic about how the entrenched centrist gerontocracy will never willingly give up power, and how after 2 consecutive cycles without a real, open, and full primary the likelihood of the Democrats not pulling some shady shit to coronate their chosen entrenched centrist gerontocrat is... A worrisome concern.
You don't think 2020 was a real, open, and full primary? You may not like the results, but everyone had their chance. It was also far from given that Biden would win. He ended up winning because he was widely viewed as the most electable option to beat Trump.
During the primaries is when covid hit, chaos ensued, the primaries were cut short, right in the tails of (all perfectly legal) fuckery by the centrists and Warren. I'm not saying that's some conspiracy shit about covid or that it was planned or anything, just that it was crazy, chaotic, no one knew what was going on. There was a plague on. What I am saying is that with 8 years of no real, full primaries I do not think the entrenched powers that be within the Democratic party are going to relinquish the amount of control they gained by cutting primaries short. The Democrats have always had a problem with primaries, and letting the people actually pick the candidates. That's why they love their superdelegates so much, it gives the party the power to overrule the people. Limiting the primaries further (again, after giving people 8 years to get used to it, even if it wasn't planned or intentional) is just an extension of party control over the candidate. Primaries are not elections, there's no requirement that the private corporations that call themselves political parties give us a choice as to the candidate they run, and I see no reason why they would not limit that as much as possible to protect their interests. There is a balancing act within the party: how much control and power can we hold while not pissing off the base so much that they abandon us?
With the tactic of 'vote for us or watch your loved ones die or end up in camps' combined with taking advantage of situations like the aftermath of a chaotic and unavoidably cut short primary season, the answer is "quite a lot"