this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2024
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I am so so so expecting a nuclear exchange in or around the middle east witin 12 months - possibly after a "dirty nuke" attempt somewhere.
I am clutching at straws to even excuse this out of my top 3 worst case black swans.
only positive news is that nuclear winter will sure fix up that global warming thing real good.
There won't be an exchange; only Israel has nukes; it'll just be genocide in a different location
more than a few actors may (likely?) have very low yield devices. only takes a few to panic people and governments into stupid actions.
I mean Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons but they do have a nuclear program and it's very easy to go from there to nukes. Correct me if I'm wrong but AFAIK the principle behind nukes is pretty simple and it's modern geopolitics that makes them hard to get.
Simple and easy are not the same thing. Sure, enriching uranium is simple, you just centrifuge it so that the heavier, less stable isotopes separate from the bulk. Simple.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zippe-type_centrifuge
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet
I think the concern is that some group will launch a dirty bomb at Israel, Israel will retaliate with nukes, and then the best case scenario is 'only' thousands dying. Oh, and did I mention that a dirty bomb can make a pretty large area uninhabitable for decades?
I should invest in a radsuit.
You need to invest in Vault-Tec!