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Do you guys think this matters to his voters/supporters?
Some undecideds, sure. It only takes ten thousand voters in a couple swing states to change the outcome.
I mean, that could have been the difference in the 2016 election.
Remember when Clinton lost the election because the FBI didn't find anything on her assistant's laptop?
I mean she could have spent a weekend in Michigan. That was an unforced error.
She could have addressed her relationship with Goldman Sachs, and all the other banks that fucked over the entirety of the American people during the housing crisis that she earned millions upon millions giving "speeches" to.
She could have made an olive branch to the progressive caucus.
She could have not said "Sit down and shut up" to BLM activists.
There are a lot of things she could have done.
She could also not have stolen the fucking nomination from Sanders
Its fine though. The Supreme Court said they can rig their own primaries. /s
That's all true, but she still would have won without the dramatic search of Huma Abadeen's laptop.
I dont think that moved anyone. Like I really dont. The laptop thing was only interesting to Trump die-hards.
Maybe, but it happened right before the election. I observed noticeable shift in attitude. That's not good evidence, I know, but Clinton's polls which had been steady, took a 3% dip at the time and stayed down through election day.
People talked about the polls being off compared to the election, but the election matched the post-Comey polls pretty well. It's only the polls that mixed pre-Comey data that were too high for Clinton.
If you are interested in doing a more detailed analysis of this, I can supply you with some boiler plate code. 538 has pretty detailed polling data that's free to download. I'm going to be getting into it later in June for my monthly polling update.
I was considering calculating Trumps polling error differential from 2016 and seeing how it changed to 2020. I did a map of his differential polling error for 2020 for my update two weeks ago.
I'm also considering of taking the differential polling result for just swing states, applying it to current polling, and mapping out a series of 'pathways' to 270 for each candidate, highlighting where the pressure points are.
I think a trying to model the impact of a single news story could be pretty interesting.
There's some evidence to suggest he'll lose significant support: https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/48654-would-donald-trump-conviction-move-his-voters-evidence-from-past-present-bill-clinton-polls
But hard to know for sure.
I'm making a called shot of a drop into the 40's for July's polling.
He wont' drop below 25%, ever. That's his core. They may never support another candidate again.
However, dropping to high 30's low 40's only puts Trump back to par with Biden. Hardly a W, but at lease Biden would be back in the running.
Don't do that. Don't give me hope.
I mean it in a "There are still people who think gamestop is going to be a billion dollar stock" manner.
See: https://lemmy.world/c/gamestopstock
Cult/ Cargo cult level "They will never support another candidate again" is what I mean. They'll write him in. They'll have wild conspiracy theories. Not need to push. It will happen it on its own.
I would guess its around 25-30% of Republican voters. Its the conspiracy theory mind-set cutting backwards against those that seed it. There is no undoing this.
If Donald could please just die and they continue writing in his name for all future votes that would be great. They are the most ignorant and racist people within a party wholly committed to cultivating ignorant and racist voters.
Thats what I'm conjecturing. This is the cohort that thought JFK was going to show up to some event or something a few months ago.
A few months ago? Jesus Christ, I remember that dumb shit from the numerology crew and I had kinda lost track of them for a couple of years. This country would be so much better if they would throw their ballots in the trash. Here's hoping.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-qanon-believers-think-jfk-170839245.html
I don't think you need to worry about them throwing their ballots away as long as we can get through this gate.
It emboldens them because he already painted himself the victim, the outsider. He literally called it a witch hunt.