this post was submitted on 22 Jul 2022
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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 8 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Ukrainian army was at its peak when the war started. It's been significantly reduced in capacity since, and the weapons that the west sends come nowhere close to replacing what was lost. If Ukraine couldn't win with its original force, why would anybody expect it to win with a hodgepodge of western weapons and a decimated army. Even western publications are starting to grudgingly accept that there is no path towards Ukraine winning this war.

What's actually happening is that Ukraine continues to lose territory. The longer this war goes on the more territory Ukraine will lose, and end up in an increasingly worse bargaining position.

[–] Ninmi@sopuli.xyz -2 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (3 children)

All the expert opinions I've seen have reduced the situation in the east to a stalemate and possible Ukrainian regains in the south. Also, with how much I hear about Ukrainians being very disorganized at the start and with the further lack of any weapons apart from their own, it's odd to claim the Ukrainian army was at its peak. The Russians seemed to have simply failed miserably trying to take over the entire country quickly.

[–] basiliscos@lemmy.ml 7 points 2 years ago (11 children)

How much of territories Ukrain returned back to its control? Ukrain has a few tactical wins, like sinking down russian ship(s) and repell Russians from an island. But what are strategical gains since April?

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[–] thervingi@lemmy.ml 7 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Which experts are you reading? Western experts in the media are too biased in favour of the Ukrainian side to make accurate predictions.They have been wrong too many times to trust them.

[–] Ninmi@sopuli.xyz 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I've been absent. Also, I'm going to half ignore your request for non-western sources by concentrating on the Finnish ones with very brief translations or explanations. I was not able to find the main source I was looking for, but this will do for now.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12540078 Finnish major general and former chief of intelligence, Pekka Toveri: "Russia dominates by numbers, but Ukraine's western arsenal is more modern and neither have the resources to solve the situation."

https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12526593 Toveri: Essentially the same as above, but with various different additional comments.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12314941/64-3-94534 Senior researcher at the Finnish National Defence University, Jukka Viitaniemi on the chances of Ukraine getting back southern regions: "Yes, in light of recent events, considering the weapons and aid they've received. I would say it's entirely possible and even probable. I would give it around a 50-70% chance, I can't say with a 100% that this would happen."

On the chances of taking back Crimea: "In optimal conditions, yes."

https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12521889 Swedish Military University docent Ilmari Käihkö: "Most observers agree that both sides will run out of troops over summer."

https://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/a/b94134db-060b-41ba-8d40-a70d8db559f1 Essentially the same as above, but with a fleshed out interview.

https://www.verkkouutiset.fi/a/asiantuntija-hehkuttaa-himars-jarjestelmaa-ukraina-voi-kaantaa-edun-itselleen/#48cc421d Finnish Military University, Military Professor Marko Palokangas: A lot of praise for the effectiveness of HIMARS.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/07/russia-ukraine-war-update-what-we-know-on-day-134-of-the-invasion I've excluded Ukrainian and Russian sources as I mostly ignore them, but it's worth mentioning they've described the HIMAR systems as "game changers".

https://nitter.it/MarkHertling/status/1551668596803358724#m HIMARS and MLRS differences and why they matter from a former US army officer.

[–] thervingi@lemmy.ml 3 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

Most of these are government or almost-government sources. I am very skeptical about such sources given the enourmous pro-Ukrainian bias.

[–] Ninmi@sopuli.xyz -1 points 2 years ago

If you mean YLE, then you need not worry. They're not any different to any other news outlet in Finland except there site is less cancerous and they seem to write about opposing views a little more than others.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 4 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Show me a single actual expert, as in a person with military or logistics experience, saying there's going to be some kind of a stalemate. Ukrainians were organized and trained to NATO standard at the start. If you think they were disorganized at the start, I can guarantee you they're far less organized today.

The Russians never made any claims about taking over the country quickly. This was a narrative created by the west that had no basis in reality. Feel free to show me a single statement from Russia claiming anything of the sort being the goal.

It's also pretty clear that Russia was prepared for a protracted conflict given that they had all the supplies and logistics figured out ahead of time. They wouldn't have been able to sustain the pace of war otherwise.

What's actually happening is that Ukraine built up layered defences on the contact line at Donbas over the past 8 years of the civil war. Russians along with DPR and LPR are now systematically taking those defences apart. And we're now seeing the pace of the war accelerating as these defences are being broken through.

[–] nxlemmy@lemmy.ml 2 points 2 years ago (5 children)

The Russians never made any claims about taking over the country quickly. This was a narrative created by the west that had no basis in reality. Feel free to show me a single statement from Russia claiming anything of the sort being the goal.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-state-news-published-an-article-saying-russia-defeated-ukraine-2022-2

It’s also pretty clear that Russia was prepared for a protracted conflict given that they had all the supplies and logistics figured out ahead of time https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1575291/russia-ukraine-war-putin-troops-soldiers-abandoned-food-supplies

you're arguing with ppl who are clearly taking hopium in regards to how much Ukraine can sustain or how well Ukraine is doing but you're also making weird claims that makes me think you're dabbling in hopium for how well Russia is doing.

Also the "civil war" you keep bringing up is kinda weird since Russia would obviously send in people to stir trouble so they can claim they must save Ukrainians like Russia and the US did\do in the Middle East, Latin America, etc all the time.

the truth is none of us know wtf is actually going down but its clear all sides have people suffering and the worlds fuel and food supply is getting fucked with so no one everyone is suffering (except China is prolly getting a ton of super cheap fuel from Russia and learning what not to do when they try to take Taiwan)

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[–] Ferk@lemmy.ml -1 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

https://globalnews.ca/news/8710682/ukraine-russia-war-stalemate/

"The ineffectiveness of the campaign is so clear, and the ferociousness of the Ukrainian defence is so obvious … (that) it’s created an equalizer where neither side can move much from where they are now.”

“The damage and devastation to Ukrainian cities is likely to increase even in a period of stalemate,”

Frederick W. Kagan. senior fellow and director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C. former professor of military history at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. Married to Kimberly Kagan, the president of the Institute for the Study of War.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 0 points 2 years ago

This article is all the way back from March, show me anybody claiming anything of the sort today.