this post was submitted on 02 Feb 2024
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Sure, but what real-world problem does a trustless solve? I thought this was all very interesting years ago but now that we've had blockchain for years it seems it's only good for illegal or morally questionable transactions.
See I think more nuanced takes like this are good. I'm not familiar with the Chinese banking issue that you are describing, but it sounds like deposit insurance (like the FDIC) might be a better solution than cryptocurrency, and it's definitely better understood. Since the real world value of cryptocurrencies are so volatile they are a questionable store of value, and taking a risk on a poorly regulated bank might be better than taking a risk on storing your money in a volatile and unregulated security like cryptocurrency. Honestly it's hard to know which is the better risk. So it could be better or it could be worse.
I agree with your point about transferring money internationally, and even within the US transferring money used to be a real pain. So I'm still interested to see if cryptocurrency can be a better medium of exchange or medium of transfer than traditional ways, or at least give traditional systems incentive to improve. But again the volatility is a concern so for most people the best move is probably to get in and out of the crypto market as quickly as possible or else risk getting a vastly different amount of money out of it than you put in. Admittedly it could appreciate, but when I'm transferring money to someone I don't want that to simultaneously be an investment. The few times I have used Bitcoin to purchase something the whole process has taken hours, and there's no guarantee there won't be price swings — a lot could happen in those hours.
I appreciate the brutal honesty about cryptocurrency not being for the average Joe. It's not that long since many cryptocurrency boosters were hoping it would replace fiat currency, but now that I think about it I haven't heard as much about that recently. In its current state it is really not for the average Joe.
Legal money transfers are not a use case. Crypto is simply much more expensive to maintain. All these mining rigs and all that electricity must be paid for.
If it seemed cheaper, then either:
Under the spoiler is something I wrote recently to explain how crypto is not like stocks.
spoiler
Let’s look at how stocks get their value.A company sells shares to get funding. Say, you want to make microwave dinners. You need to hire people, an industrial kitchen, packaging and packaging machines, ingredients, and probably a whole lot more. The company takes in revenue from selling the dinners, which pay for the running costs. Anything above that may be reinvested or turns into profit. The profit is paid to the stock-owners to pay them for their investment.
Now the question is: What is the value of a stock?
Imagine you take out a loan. That gives you money right now, in the present. You pay back the loan with the money that you get from your stocks; your share in the profit. Now imagine that the company goes out of business (and the value of the stock becomes $0) right as you are done paying back the loan + interest. Then that loan was the present value of the stock.
In theory, the value of a share is the present value of the future money that you get paid. Of course, one cannot know how much that is, so this is useless for actual investing. Still, the market price of a share should be the best guess of people with money. If the stock is trading higher than someone’s guess, they sell. If it’s lower, they buy. So the market cap should reflect the future profits.
But what’s the value of a crypto-coin like bitcoin?
Let’s start by thinking only about a coin being used to transfer money. And to make it easier, let’s say that coins are only exchanged for money once a day.
Say people want to transfer 10 million USD each day. The senders buy coins for 10 million USD. They don’t care how many coins that gets them, only that the coins represent 10 million USD. If there are 2 million coins being sold on the market, then each coin must transport 5 USD and that will be the market value.
New coins are constantly being “mined” to pay for the upkeep of the system. Let’s say that’s 100,000 coins per day.
The intended receivers of the 10 million USD sell their coins to get the money. The miners also sell their coins to pay their bills. So the next day you have 2 million + 100,000 coins on the market. The senders again want to transport 10 million USD, so they buy the 2,100,000 coins on the market. The market value of a coin is now ~4.76 USD. Adding more coins lowered the value of the coins. That is inflation. The “missing” money goes to the miners to keep the system running. That’s not a problem for senders and receivers. Transferring money costs money, however you do it. (That crypto is an extremely expensive way to do this, is one underlying reason why it has no adoption as a payment system in the normal economy.)
So far, you wouldn’t expect anyone to store or “hodl” coins. The value is just going down. But obviously, this is only true as long as the amount of USD to be transferred stays constant. If the system is more widely adopted and more money is transferred (outpacing the inflationary effect of the newly mined coins), then each coin has to transport more USD and the “value” goes up.
Now, if you believe that adoption continues to grow, it becomes a reasonable strategy to stash some coins to sell them later at a higher “value”. Maybe the problem is already obvious, but let’s continue to take it slow.
So, let’s say, it’s a bit later. There are 15 million coins and they are to transfer 100 million USD. The market price of a coin is now $6.67. (Let’s also say that there are no more coins being mined and the upkeep is paid some other way.) Now we bring in some venture capitalists. One day, they buy coins for an additional $50 million. Now the coins trade at $10 per coin. 15 million coins bought for $100 million + $50 million, right?
The VCs now have 5 million coins. But note where the money went. It went to the transfer receivers when they sold the 15 million coins for $10 each. They got a windfall profit. That’s how it goes in crypto. All the money that people “invested” by buying coins is gone. It was either used to pay miners/for the system upkeep, or early adopters took it and ran. It’s all gone. That’s the big difference to shares.
If the VCs sell their coins again, they lose. Because when there is only 100 million USD in the market for 15 million coins, they would only get 6.67 USD per coin. The money that they spent is gone. If they want to make a profit, new money has to come from somewhere. There are only 2 ways to achieve this.
One is continuing adoption. If more money were to be transferred, with the same number of coins, the price goes up. They can siphon off some of that money by selling into that market. But that lowers the price again, so that only yields a profit if adoption increases enough.
The other is that someone else also removes coins from the market. If there are fewer coins for the same (or a decreasing!) amount of money being transferred, then the market price will also go up. (In this scenario, too, they would be siphoning off money that other people are trying to transfer. The cost of transferring money would be increased for no very good reason; not a great feature in a payment system.) But note that this, too, lowers the price again. That only yields a profit, if “hodlers” sequester the coins sold by the VCs for a higher price than the VCs paid.
I’m not saying this is a Ponzi scheme because everyone has heard that already.
So that’s it. If you want to know the effect of 50k bitcoin on price, you need to look at the trading volume (minus wash trades): How many bitcoin are actually “in use”? You also need to know how many of these coins will be promptly removed from the market by “hodlers”.
Various currencies are moving away from the proof-of-work model, FWIW. Ethereum was mentioned in this comment chain as one of them.
Which doesn't solve the economic problem. (Good for the environment, though)
Ethereum has proof of stake. That means someone has to deposit Ethereum, tying it up. It could be exchanged for money and invested in stocks or bonds, yielding a return. This is only economically feasible if the stake yields the same return as a comparable investment. This profit has to come from the users.
A competing payment system, based on sensible, modern technology also needs computers and the internet but not a stake. It must be cheaper.
The stake is supposed to keep people honest, because it can be taken if fraud is detected. Normally, fraud is dealt with by putting the perpetrators in jail. Being known by name is proof of stake.
Users have to pay extra just so that some kingpins in the back can remain anonymous. Do you want to for that?
It also doesn't solve the other deal-breaker (in the spoiler). Whenever you transfer money through crypto, you risk that some "investor" siphons off some of it.
It will not be so volatile if it's primary means of transaction for everyone(obviously not yet). Value of thoose cryptos are just like the values of normal money in different countries.
For example, if you can buy an apple for 10 shitcoins, instead of buying it in USD, then the value is not volatile. The problem arises when the apple is 5 USD and you have to transfer the shitcoin amount which is equal to the exchange rate of 5USD at that time.
This is true, but it's hard to see why we would ever move from fiat currency to cryptocurrency as the primary means of exchange. Currently cryptocurrency's advantages are modest and its disadvantages are substantial, and I haven't seen a lot of movement toward fixing that balance. I'd like to give traditional finance channels some competition to reduce fees, lock-in, and inconvenience, but cryptocurrency is going to have to get a lot better for average people if it's going to be a real alternative.
How would using blockchain fix the liquidity of a bank?
There's a case to be made for a currency that facilitates illegal transactions, or transactions that corporations object to. Just because something is legal in your country doesn't mean it might not be unjustly restricted. Or could just be unjustly illegal in your country or another country. The problem of course is that distributed currency also facilitates things that should be illegal.
But WikiLeaks is a good example - their legacy is a little mixed now, but when they first came on the scene they were doing work which was a valuable service to the public. If you wanted to donate money to support wikileaks you couldn't because the credit card processors shut them off. Blockchain lets you get around that.
Likewise it's the combination of distance and direct - I can give $5 in cash to my local leaking consortium, but I can't give $5 to the leaking consortium on the other side of the world without relying on the knowledge and consent of third parties.
I agree there's something to be said for this — If you have a above-board business that credit card companies don't want to service because they think it makes them look bad, that should not shut you out of electronic payments yet that's basically where we are at least in the US.
This is a little hard to balance with the fact that the same things that let you circumvent gatekeepers like credit card companies also make it attractive for genuinely immoral things, but that's a trade-off. Every currency can be used for immoral things and just because cryptocurrency might make it a little easier doesn't mean it's inherently immoral.
You totally can give cash anywhere in the world. You post it as a letter
This was common before electronic transfer
Mailing someone cash means you need to know their address, you have to wait however long for the mail to arrive, you can't prove they received the cash, it's possible the cash was stolen en route and anyone who might wish you harm like an adversary government can observe the transaction.
With crypto you face similar problems. You need an address, waiting is shortr, rugpulls and other scams are one of the biggest use cases so getting crypto stolen seems common. You might be able to verify that crypto was revceved but as with any trustless paymet solutions the issue is that getting the item you ordered is the part where trust is needed the most. Good luck asking back money when you get an empty box.
You're right about ordering goods and not having a recourse if they're not delivered. Of course in the case of supporting an organization that will be less of a consideration.
In the case of needing to know an address it's much different to give out an arbitrary string of numbers as an address than information which represents your physical location.
No disagreement that there are myriad examples of problematic uses for crypto. My first comment was in response to the question about what are valid use cases. It seems clear there are some, even if it's not as universal as some true believers claim.
I was hoping it would help me save on international transfer fees when I was an overseas postdoc, but it would have actually cost more between the exchange fees and my time setting up all the exchanges in various countries, meanwhile also introducing risk in me being robbed of said money and screwing something up and introducing myself to some sort of tax liability. Needless to say, I continued to just pay for the bank transfers
That's really the thing, isn't it? In my experience cryptocurrency fees are quite high. I bet there's a way to find a lower fee but then I'd have to do a ton of research and hope it's accurate. I'd rather just pay a bank that requires me to do no research.
It cannot be cheaper, other than by avoiding taxes and regulation.
Consider sending money from US Dollar to Euro:
Sane way: An intermediary (IE a bank) handles this. You give them USD and they give the receiver Euros. This involves some service costs and 2 bank transfers.
Because people exchange money in both ways, the banks need not run out of either Euro or USD. In the background there is the currency market, on which the proper exchange rate is haggled out, which takes care of imbalances in cash flow.
Crypto way: You give a crypto exchange (an intermediary) USD and they give you crypto. This already involves 2 transfers and service costs. One of those 2 transfers is a crypto transfer, which is much more expensive (IE uses more resources) than a bank transfer.
This is already more expensive and then you have to do the same thing again to cash out.
And then we are still not done. Say there is an imbalance in that more people transfer money from USD to Euro than vice versa. That means that crypto becomes more expensive in USD and cheaper in Euro. There's more demand in terms of USD and more supply for Euro, right?.
That creates an arbitrage opportunity. You can exchange USD for Euro, and then buy crypto for Euro to sell for USD. This closes the circle and puts everything back to the initial state. But to do that, we still have to exchange the real currencies. So now the markets bake the cost of exchanging currency into the crypto prices. At a guess, for some currencies (probably not so much Euro/USD), that would have a significant effect. I'm thinking smaller, poorer countries that send many migrant workers, who send money back home. These workers would not only end up paying the insane overhead of the crypto system, but also, still, most of the normal, direct exchange costs (if they relied on crypto).
Also, the unbanked.
Also, privacy and anonymity (to an extent).
Also, complete predictability in the system (its at least domain constrained).
There's no privacy, it's an open ledger, only anonymity
It's a bad way of hiding money if you're about to be investigated for crime
Monero seems to be holding up in terms of privacy.
Can the unbanked still benefits from crypto these days though? How can you cash your crypto without doing KYC? Even localbitcoin got folded due to increased regulation. If you can pass KYC, then you're probably not the unbanked. Less and less business accept crypto these days, it's hard purchase daily necessities without cashing out your crypto (except probably in venezuela).
I mean thats really what I'm talking about. Africa, Central and South America, I know they benefit substantially from technology, because local banks can be so unreliable.
An older article, but relevant:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/oluwaseunadeyanju/2021/09/14/bitcoin-opportunity-africa-adoption-rate-is-highest-globally/
Thanks for your input, dingdong.
Good thing laws are always just and everyone agrees that following every law is the most important thing a human being can aspire to do in their lifetime.
^^/s
Seriously though, I'm someone that uses credit for 90% of my purchases, but I also enjoy consuming cannabis and I'm well aware how horrible it would be if it wasn't possible to make "illegal or morally questionable transactions."
Trusting Humans is literally a security flaw. Any system with trust you can find examples with fraud and abuse from those who held power by holding that trust.
We trusted bankers to invest our money, and some short sold the housing market with that money
I could go on, but trust really is a security issue. Decentralization has its efficiency issues, but saying "Bitcoin uses as much power as the 90th largest nation" is peanuts when you consider the energy inequality that America spends and compare what Bitcoin delivers with that energy versus how much energy centralized banks need to deliver a system that's easier to fraud
Exactly, and using Bitcoin does not solve that because you still have to transact with humans. If you buy something with Bitcoin and the seller never sends you anything, you're out of luck. Your money is gone.
If you use a regulated financial system you have some options. If you paid with credit card you can charge back and dispute the charge. Your money in the bank is backed by insurance that is guaranteed by the government.
Bitcoin only cuts out the middleman. Every other issue of trust with the recipient still exists, and those are the problems regulation solves, and the reason fraudsters love Bitcoin so much.
Amen, exactly.
Ah yes Bitcoin, famously free of fraud and abuse.
More seriously, every system can be used for fraud. The question is whether the solution is actually better overall. We could prevent all wire fraud by returning to a cash-only economy. But that would be hugely inconvenient and therefore create a huge drag on the economy compared to a world where we can do electronic transfers even though electronic transfers open us up to wire fraud. Returning to cash-only is not worth the increase in security, and it opens us up to other issues (e.g., bank runs and someone stealing all the money under my mattress).
And while power use is a problem with Proof of Work coins, it's not my biggest concern about cryptocurrency because Proof of Stake can fix that issue. It's a shame that the biggest coin now is PoW but hopefully that will change. The bigger issue is "is cryptocurrency better than traditional currency?" So far it hasn't proven to be better except in extremely limited circumstances. And a lot of the ways cryptocurrency is better will go away if governments start regulating it like other forms of finance. Having your money in cryptocurrency won't protect you from the police and courts.
Okay? You could do that with cryptocurrency if traders started accepting cryptocurrency for shorts. The only reason you can't do that today is traders won't accept cryptocurrency for shorts, and that's basically security through obscurity.
Sure, drugs and fraud surround Bitcoin, but drugs, fraud, and banking imperialism surround the petrodollar
I didn't say cryptocurrency was any better or worse for fraud and abuse than regular currencies. Honestly I have no idea which one is better or worse for fraud and abuse. I'm just saying it's not clear that the particular way that cryptocurrency is more secure than regular banking is actually beneficial.
Bingo. Capitalism has thus far rejected the blockchain, which is generally evidence that it doesn't solve an important problem either efficiently, safely or cheaply.
Capitalism rejects solutions to climate change as well
To be fair, there are plenty of other reasons capitalism might have rejected blockchain: market failure, interference by government, etc.
I'm not saying that to defend cryptocurrency, by the way, but rather to point out that capitalism isn't perfect at allocating resources in every situation.
capitalism is generally terrible at allocating ressources. It will always win to externalize costs, and if the people footing the bill cannot participate in the market, like for instance future generations, the result is always a self destructive system.
They put money in Bitcoin, but not the tech behind it. To them it's just stocks to be manipulated in order to get a profit.
I don't know why this is surprising. Capitalism is an economic system where the goal is profit. So, why would capital do anything other than seek profit? Nearly all technological advances have occurred through government or institutional investments, then capital flocks to it when someone finds a way to profit from it.
Thinking block chain is a solution to anything is naive. It does nothing to change the underlying system, or the incentives that drive our economy. Like any system, the interconnections between the things that make up the system, and the goal of the system must change otherwise everything will just settle back to the status quo.
For example: media streaming is becoming cable tv again. Nothing fundamentally changed about the system of delivering media, or the goal of the system which is to drive profit. Thus, we are moving quickly back to the same model of paying for media (renting it really) and watching ads to increase the revenue of the provider
Right?
Also, look at its price. It dipped, and came right back.
If anything, the financial consensus around this is exactly the opposite of what was being presented.