this post was submitted on 11 Apr 2023
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GenZedong
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Taiwan is not Ukraine, if China seriously decides to move in they will take the island. So I'm not entirely sure what our plan even is if that happens.
Most likely they'll leave the severely weakened ROC troops bear the brunt while Tsai and her clique attempt to escape to Japan and subsequently somewhere else afterwards to establish a 'government in exile'.
Strangely enough the DPP had consistently weakened them compared to the old KMT which at one point posed a credible threat to re-invade during the cultural revolution era...
Honestly I doubt they will have the chance to flee. I feel China would take precautions to prevent their "government" to escape again and continue this charade. They can have fighters over Taiwan in what? Under 30 minutes? If China goes all in on this then I hope the go ALL in and just shoot down anything Tiawan put into the air or sea.
Not to mention intelligence/counterintelligence
Unless they escape preemptively. I.e. bolsonaro, Poroshenko, Merkel
It's hard to make sense of. But there are still two main options, socialism or barbarism. And we know the US isn't going to willingly turn socialist.