this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2023
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Collapse
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Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.
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I've had a very similar experience. I can't remember a summer where we've hit 30C this frequently. One of our provinces lit up with tornado warnings like a Christmas tree last week, including places that were initially only supposed to get small thunderstorms.
I'm also very concerned about the upcoming weather systems. Scientists are now predicting that this el Nino is likely to last into next year, which could spell a lot of trouble for some people.
In some areas, we can look at previous moisture data and make a pretty decent guess that they will receive more or less precipitation than they would in a normal year. Other areas fluctuate a lot more in that regard. Anyone in those fluctuating areas should pay close attention to the weather during this winter. A warmer winter in those areas could mean less snow, but it could also mean that they will have to deal with heavy ice storms.
With all of these new record-breaking temperatures, long term weather prediction is coming into uncharted territory. A large amount of our weather is controlled by these sea temperatures.
From what I read on the US NOAA, there is also great uncertainty this year in terms of tropical storms. Tropical storms thrive and feed on heat and humidity. Normally an el Nino would mean that the Pacific ocean heat would create winds with enough force to shear through developing tropical storms. This year, it's a waiting game to see which winds will be stronger. This affects Canada too, as our eastern parts can also see these bad storms.