Death to NATO

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For posting news about NATO's wars in Ukraine, Serbia, Kosovo, and The Middle East, including anywhere else NATO is currently engaged in hostile actions. As well as anything that relates to it.

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I have seen a few mentions of these recent Pentagon leaks about Ukraine's "spring counter-offensive" in the comments here so i gather that there are some comrades that have an interest for this sort of thing. From what i can tell this article does a good job summing up the most relevant big picture information that can be learned from these documents.

Warning: the author has thrown in a queerphobic "joke" for absolutely no reason which is very annoying and detracts from an otherwise professional piece.

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  • Armed civilians without giving them a uniform. Breach of Geneva Conventions
  • Ukrainian special forces command said Russian artillerymen will no longer be taken prisoner and will "all be killed for being complicit in criminal orders". Killing surrendering soldiers is a war crime. Collective punishment is also one. Edit: they have since taken that statement back. I have not.
  • Did not activate air raid sirens to warn civilian populations of artillery and air strikes. People have already died because of this; Russia gave warnings as per protocol which Ukraine did not relay in time.
  • As per the discovery of biological labs near the border with Russia, there is a very serious possibility Zelensky is guilty of producing biological weapons. The labs have been confirmed by the US gov, but no proof yet that they were meant for biological warfare.
  • Forcing battles to happen in civilian zones, thus exposing them to danger and preventing their protection.
  • Possibility of using child soldiers, as the Ukrainian army is now training children to use AKs, during wartime.
  • Ukrainian forces were (accidentally) caught using Red Cross vans to transport soldiers and materiel. The symbol of the cross itself can only be used by the organisation and is protected under the Geneva Conventions; it can only be used by medical units who must then be treated like civilians.

Feel free to contribute. (the list above only reflects crimes Zelensky himself can be responsible for, to the best of our knowledge based on information that comes out of Ukraine. This list is also not legal advice, as only a trial will be able to determine which crimes have been committed and who is responsible for them).

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I'm surprised there haven't been posts about it (or at least I haven't seen them on all the usual suspect communities). My guess is that people are hesitant to call it out in case the story turns out to be true, but I have no such qualms.

How it started

It started when Kyiv Independent quoted a "Western source" that the DPRK has sent 10.000 troops to Russia,. The Western media then ran with the story and said Ukrainian intelligence believes DPRK soldiers are sent to Russia. Once Zelenskyy started talking about it that was good enough for Western media to accept it as fact. I can't find the article now, but I distinctly remember a headline saying "Zelenskyy confirms North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia", they must have changed the headline because of how it sounds. I need to remember to take more screenshots.

At the same time as this story was "breaking", the Western media ran a parallel story about how the DPRK soldiers have already fled their positions. Of course, no videos or pictures of these "deserting soldiers" were ever posted or shared. The Western audience believes these things because they want to believe them to be true.

Racist undertones

Ukraine+Western media are saying that Russia is going to use the DPRK troops to form a Buryat battalion. Buryat people are a distinct ethnicities within the Russian Federation. Ukrainian intelligence services have no doubt chosen the name "Buryat battalion" because in low quality videos and photos Western audiences are not expected to know the difference between a Buryat soldier and a Korean soldier. They are also claiming the Koreans are receiving Russian passports, documents, etc. so if they ever come across the bodies of dead Buryat soldiers they can just claim those are actually DPRK soldiers.

How it's going

The latest "evidence" posted of these supposed DPRK soldiers "fighting for" Russia is two videos without a date or location, but purportedly from Russia's far east. In both videos you can hear Korean being spoken. In one video they are outside training, and in the other they are receiving Russian uniforms.

The Western media can't even get their story straight though. First they reported that South Korea's intelligence has said 12000 DPRK soldiers are fighting for Ukraine but then they revised their story to say 1500 DPRK troops are fighting for Russia. If you look at the CNN url, you will see that it still says "12000 troops", although the title and the body of the article have changed.

Why are they saying this?

It is obvious that Zelenskyy & Co. are trying to present this as an escalation and evidence that this is becoming a "world war". The fact that Ukraine has been supported by countries from around the world is irrelevant. They claim 1500 DPRK citizens getting Russian uniforms is a big problem, yet when some 20.000+ mercenaries from the West received Ukrainian uniforms that was actually wholesome big chungus move.

Regardless of the reality, most people in the West now think that DPRK soldiers are actually fighting Ukraine on the ground, despite the fact that "NATO has not confirmed that thousands of North Korean troops are preparing to join the war, Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Thursday."

But what if the Western media turns out to be right, and there are DPRK soldiers fighting in Ukraine?

I'm happy to say that this story is bullshit because what are 1500 soldiers going to do for Russia? Russia supposedly has some 400k soldiers in Ukraine right now. According to Ukraine+Western media, Russia suffers 1000-1200 casualties a day, so DPRK just sent them a day's worth of fighting force.

But even if that were true (and it isn't), it's not a big deal. Where was the outrage six months ago when Macron said he is considering sending French troops to Ukraine? People don't seem to understand that nobody is stopping individual countries like Poland, Estonia, Latvia, etc. to send troops to Ukraine. It won't trigger Article 5 and it won't drag NATO into war. But no country wants to do it, and no country will do it in response to 1500 supposed DPRK troops being sent there.

If DPRK troops are indeed in Russia and Ukraine, then they are there probably for training, education or to oversee the transfer and use of the artillery ammunition they had sent to Russia earlier. NATO has thousands of its own personnel working in Ukraine, in addition to all the spooks and spies.

The media loves this story because now it's Ukraine "alone" versus Russia, Iran, China and North Korea. It feeds into their underdog story, which only works if they completely ignore all the assistance Ukraine received from the West from the start of this war.

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This is to show Russia's SMO wasn't unprovoked because Ukraine kept shelling citizens in Donetsk.

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spoiler

Russia has recaptured half of the territory it lost to Ukraine in Kursk, a region central to Volodymyr Zelensky’s plan to defeat Vladimir Putin.

A senior Russian commander from Chechnya said that an estimated 50,000 troops were pushing back Ukrainian forces, who either had to flee or “end up in the cauldron”.

“Approximately half of the territory that was occupied by the enemy has already been liberated,” said Major General Apty Alaudinov.

Well-connected Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers have been reporting since Saturday that Moscow’s troops have punched through sectors of Ukraine’s front lines in Kursk.

Mr Zelensky has insisted that the situation has stabilised but the US-based Institute for the Study of War, which holds staunchly pro-Ukraine views, said that it has seen “visual evidence” that Russia has recaptured 46 per cent of its territory in Kursk.

According to some commentators, seasonal rain has turned the ground to mud in the Kursk region, handing Russia an advantage because its forces use more tracked vehicles than Ukrainian troops do.

Boris Rozhin, a pro-Kremlin blogger, posted a video of Ukrainian soldiers pulling an armoured car out of a rain-soaked patch of forest next to a water-logged, mud-coated track.

“Ukrainian forces are doing a lot of whining about how they have a lot of wheeled vehicles, while Russian forces are betting on tracked vehicles,” he said.

The muddy season in Russia and Ukraine is called “rasputitsa” and is renowned for bogging down vehicles on tracks and fields, making travel slow-going.

Emil Kastehelmi, an open-source research analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group, also said that the terrain that Ukrainian forces were trying to defend in Kursk favoured the attacker.

“The area is mostly dominated by large open fields with a limited natural cover,” he said, describing Ukraine’s western flank. “Especially without proper fortifications, defending it can be difficult.”

By Mr Kastehelmi’s reckoning, Ukraine has lost at least a third of the territory that it had once held in the Kursk region.

Ukraine launched its daring incursion into Russia in August. Catching Russian soldiers by surprise, Ukrainian forces quickly captured a region around the town of Sudzha measuring roughly 450sq miles, half the size of Dorset.

The invasion boosted morale among Ukrainian civilians but some analysts warned that instead of drawing Russian forces away from the front line, it had weakened Ukraine’s defences.

Last month, George Beebe, the director of grand strategy at the US-based Quincy Institute, said the Kursk operation was already looking like a “blunder”.

He said: “There seems to be a great deal of scepticism about what this incursion is going to accomplish.”

Regardless, Mr Zelensky has made holding on to Ukraine’s Kursk salient central to his ‘Victory Plan’, which he presented to Sir Keir Starmer last week.

But Russian forces have accelerated their attacks along the front line in Donbas since Ukraine invaded Kursk, and on Tuesday pro-Russia officials in occupied Donetsk said that they had now captured two-thirds of Toretsk, a key front-line town with a pre-war population of 34,000 people.

In the northern section of the front line in east Ukraine, Ukrainian officials have also ordered the evacuation of civilians from the city of Kupyansk on the banks of the Oskil river because of Russian advances.

Oleg Sinegubov, the head of the Kharkiv region , said: “The military situation is deteriorating and we cannot ensure the heating season, the provision of electricity, and humanitarian assistance. The enemy is shelling critical infrastructure.”

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From @rnintel on Telegram: "Russia's counteroffensive in the Kursk region: Russia has recaptured 519.8 sqkm of area. Ukraine still holds 559.3 sqkm"

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"If, as I believe, the United States is defeated, NATO will disintegrate and Europe will be left free." - Emmanuel Todd in an interview with Corriere di Bologna

I don't think NATO will disintegrate if Russia wins, although it will be weakened and has already shown itself to be weak/ineffective, a paper tiger. EU has already made plans for an EU army with little interest at its inception, although now I think more countries will be for it.

Emmanuel Todd thinks Russia has maximalist goals in Ukraine, I disagree with him there too, although eventual liberation of Odessa might be in the cards. If they cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea completely, that will just be grounds for another war once Ukraine recovers.

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Another summary of the latest developments on the Donbass front, accumulating reports of the grisly but inevitable slow motion collapse of the Kiev regime forces, along with a slew of panicky articles that have been coming out recently from the western media.

And for those interested in diving into some more detail, here is an additional analysis of the broader Russian operations so far from a military technical perspective with some historical comparisons and some informed predictions:

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/october-the-great-offensive-is-inevitable

I don't necessarily think that these predictions will come true, or at least not in this time frame, but it is an interesting possibility to consider. And as usual: a reminder to tread with caution when it comes to these right-leaning sources. They're competent enough with military analysis, but don't go there expecting good political takes or progressive social views.

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https://archive.ph/4ICfu

As Zelenskyy sheltered from Russia’s invasion in bunkers and evaded Russian assassins, Stoltenberg wasn’t able to speak to him for two days. When they finally talked, “that phone call was quite difficult”... ...Part of it, Stoltenberg recalls, was the fear Zelenskyy would soon be “caught or killed”.

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spoilerFor six gruelling days earlier this month a small team of experienced Ukrainian soldiers managed to withstand Russia’s relentless assault on their position on the eastern front.

All aged under 40 and with two years of fighting experience, the six men held their ground despite a barrage of rockets and killed over 100 Russian soldiers, said their commander in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

“When they rotated out, they were trembling. They hadn’t slept or rested,” their commander said near the frontline south-east of Pokrovsk, a city Russia is seeking to occupy. “But those guys did their job and held the line.”

The troops who replaced them were less successful. Of the eight soldiers rotated in, only two had previous combat experience. All six new conscripts — most over the age of 40 — were killed or wounded within a week, forcing the unit to retreat.

Outmanned and outgunned since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s troops have valiantly defended their territory from Russian bombardments, ground assaults and dirty tactics such as employing chemical weapons, which the US has said amount to war crimes.

Kyiv’s forces inflicted huge losses on the Russian army this year and proved they were still capable of seizing the initiative when they invaded Russia’s southern Kursk region.

But despite these achievements, Ukraine’s troops and their commanders are growing concerned over manpower problems, particularly the quality of new recruits and the speed at which they are injured or killed in combat.

The Ukrainian infantry is most acutely affected: its troops are grappling with exhaustion and flagging morale, leading some to abandon their positions and allow Russia to capture more land, according to frontline commanders.

Along the front in Donetsk, four commanders, a deputy commander and nearly a dozen soldiers from four Ukrainian brigades told the Financial Times that the new conscripts lack basic combat skills, motivation and often abandon their positions when they come under fire.

The commanders estimated that 50 to 70 per cent of new infantry troops were killed or wounded within days of starting their first rotation.

“When the new guys get to the position, a lot of them run away at the first shell explosion,” said a deputy commander in Ukraine’s 72nd mechanised brigade fighting near the eastern city of Vuhledar, a key bulwark that the Russians are attempting to flank.

This situation poses a significant challenge for Ukraine as it fights on the new front in Kursk while at the same time trying to fend off Moscow’s forces in its east. Kyiv is also pressing western partners for more assistance to help it turn the tide of the war.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to the US this week to try to get the Biden administration behind his “victory plan” and force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table sooner rather than later. But to strike a deal with the Russian president that would not amount to capitulation by Kyiv, Zelenskyy needs greater western support, including unprecedented security guarantees, to help his struggling troops on the frontline.

“We are in desperate need of strong soldiers,” said a commander who goes by the nom de guerre “Lawyer” because he had worked as an attorney before the war.

Senior Ukrainian officials said a recent mobilisation drive had allowed Ukraine to draft about 30,000 soldiers a month since May, when a new conscription law came into force. That is on par with the number of troops Russia has been able to recruit by offering large bonuses and generous salaries.

But commanders on the ground and military analysts have warned that the newly drafted troops are not highly motivated, are psychologically and physically unprepared — and are being killed at an alarming rate as a result.

One commander, whose unit is defending positions around Kurakhove, where Russian forces have made gains in recent weeks, said that “some guys freeze [because] they are too afraid to shoot the enemy, and then they are the ones who leave in body bags or severely wounded”.

After difficult combat stints, many new conscripts go Awol, commanders said. Some return so shell-shocked and exhausted that they are checked into psychiatric wards.

Several bungled rotations in recent months have led to Russia making easier gains than expected towards Pokrovsk.

“We are most vulnerable during rotations,” said the deputy commander. “That’s when Russia is able to advance . . . The infantry is crucial to our defence.”

Seasoned soldiers “are being killed off too quickly”, said another commander on the eastern front, only to be replaced by mostly older men without experience and in worse physical shape.

Age is a key concern — the average person in Ukraine’s military is 45. Of about 30 infantry troops in a unit, said the deputy commander of the 72nd brigade, on average half were in their mid-40s, only five were under 30 and the rest were 50 or older.

“As infantry, you need to run, you need to be strong, you need to carry heavy equipment,” he added. “It’s hard to do that if you aren’t young.”

But the problems start long before the recruits reach the battlefield, the commanders and analysts said.

A former Ukrainian officer who operates the analytical group Frontelligence Insight blamed “long-standing systemic problems that were left unaddressed for years”. Largely composed of mobilised former civilians, the Ukrainian army is led by officers and generals who started their career in Soviet times and had “never been in combat”, he said.

Commanders lay part of the blame on military recruiters: “It would be wise to pay more attention to each person’s characteristics and background to see where the guys best fit instead of sending everyone to the infantry,” said Mykhailo Temper, a battery commander in the 21st battalion of Ukraine’s Separate Presidential Brigade.

“You literally see all layers of society represented [in the infantry],” he added. “Not everyone is fit for the front.”

Temper, who is also the founder of a freeze-dried food company popular among outdoor adventurers and soldiers, said entrepreneurs like himself were often best equipped to serve in commander and officer roles, while some of his best trench fighters were former miners and factory workers.

Convicts released to serve in the army are also appreciated for their dedication and ability to adapt to the conflict zone, according to several commanders.

But every commander emphasised what they felt was inadequate military training for the new wave of draftees.

Temper said “trainers themselves don’t have real battle experience so they aren’t teaching what the newbies need to know to fight and, more importantly, to stay alive”.

Instead, conscripts were still receiving “Soviet-style” training, where “the army just passes everyone with good marks and sends them to the front”, said the deputy commander. New troops rarely practised with live rounds because of ammunition shortages, he added.

“Some of them don’t even know how to hold their rifles. They peel more potatoes than they shoot bullets,” he said, adding that he had bought paintball equipment to replace rifles and live rounds so that new recruits could get more practice without wasting precious ammunition.

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky said this month that he had ordered improvements to the quality of training for new recruits by selecting “motivated instructors with combat experience” and raised the possibility of setting up an instructor school.

But the commander of an artillery unit said the deaths of tens of thousands of experienced soldiers over the course of the war were taking a toll: “If there are not enough people to fight, there are not enough people to teach.”

The commanders all said they tried to rotate troops every three to six days, depending on the intensity and dynamics of the fighting. But sometimes those stints can last for two weeks, especially when Russian drones spot the rotation and attack soldiers when they are at their most vulnerable.

Because Ukraine has no law on demobilisation, the soldiers are rarely allowed to leave the war zone to rest or visit family.

“Skif”, commander of a drone reconnaissance unit, first signed a contract when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. He said that signing up for the army or being conscripted “is a one-way ticket” to the war.

The deputy commander echoed this, saying that he and his troops have not been reconstituted since the full-scale invasion.

“No rehabilitation time, no relief,” he said. “I see our guys when they leave the frontline . . . they are suffering burnout.”

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So much for Pokrovsk being "insignificant". This is coming from UA media. UA media is starting to post stories like this more frequently, Western media is all like "Ha! Is that all you got Russia?! It's barely a scratch on Ukraine! Go on, attack again, double dog dare you!"

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Ignore the source, sucks that these kinds of articles are written by conservatives in the West, when this kind of grappling with reality should be par for the course for all media.

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When the dust settles, will the West’s media coverage get a passing grade, or will we find, at times, we allowed our sympathy for the Ukrainian cause to overlook matters we shouldn’t?

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As usual with this source i will give a content warning that this is a right wing source and if you step outside of their solid geopolitical analysis you may see them say some very cringe reactionary things.

The piece itself is ok, as usual a decent summary of recent events. I could see nothing particularly objectionable, except perhaps for a couple of somewhat unserious terms that a Marxist wouldn't use, such as "totalitarian".

Also, i don't vouch in any way for the comment section, i generally don't read those but it's probably a mix of ok and very very awful, so enter at your own peril. I hope this is enough to address the recent criticism that was expressed here about sharing content from problematic sources.

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From other reporting we know that Zelenski's 'victory plan' demands include:

  • to allow unrestricted long range missile strikes into Russia
  • to invite Ukraine in the borders of 1991 to join NATO at a nearby date
  • to immediately negotiate and accept Ukraine's membership in the the European Union
  • to permanently supply advanced heavy weapons to Ukraine
  • to provide additional hundreds of billions of dollars for 'reconstruction' without any restrictions attached to it
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"Before the offensive, I received intelligence that the Russians were going to assault Ocheretyne, where we had no troops at the positions," the officer says. "I passed this information on to my commanders straight away, but the commander of the brigade stationed there [the 115th Separate Mechanised Brigade – ed.] responded: ‘We have forces there, they’re all there.’

Next morning the Russians started to walk into [Ocheretyne], moving through what were officially minefields – but in fact there were no mines there. After we surrendered Novobakhmutivka, Ocheretyne and Soloviovo, the front started to collapse at the rate we’re seeing now."

"When the Russians captured Ocheretyne, there was no stable contact line as such," Vitalii the drone crew member adds. "No one knew where the front was. Soldiers in the villages of Sokil, Yevhenivka and Voskhod were walking around with guns in their hands, asking each other for passwords to figure out if they were dealing with one of us or the enemy."

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"The first problem on the Pokrovsk front is personnel numbers, the second is their level of training, and the third is the skills of the unit command. And then we run into the defence-related issues – tactics, measures, and so on." This, a soldier from the 47th Brigade tells Ukrainska Pravda, is the order of priority of the reasons for the Russians’ super-fast advance.

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"The backbone of the brigades was lost during the battles near Avdiivka, and the replenishments that arrived later left a lot to be desired," says a source from the 68th, explaining the shortage of motivated people. "The mobilisation failed. Let's be honest – each subsequent replenishment was less motivated and trained. So they could not reliably hold the defence.

In Semenivka we had about 90% experienced people in the unit and 10% newcomers. Now we have about the same ratio, but the other way round. And the average age of the newcomers can even be 55+, not 45+."

...

Bunkers and connected trench lines were indeed built on the Pokrovsk front – but there’s a catch. Many of these fortifications are unsuitable for serious defence. They’re frequently located in the middle of fields, which makes them visible to the enemy and difficult for the defence forces’ personnel, ammunition and supplies to reach.

"When [Ukrainian MP Mariana] Bezuhla posts photos of empty trenches and asks why nobody was defending them, I know exactly why. Because it’s stupid to sit in a hole in the middle of a bare field. Sooner or later an FPV drone will fly right into your face," Vitalii tells Ukrainska Pravda angrily.

"On the Pokrovsk front, trenches and dugouts had been made right in the middle of fields, making logistics impossible. They dug anti-tank ditches that led directly from enemy positions to our rear positions, and it’s impossible to monitor them. These fortifications help the enemy advance more than they help us defend.

To occupy the dugout strongpoints on the Pokrovsk front I’d need to deploy an entire platoon, which I just don’t have.

It's one thing not to have a good observation post. It's quite another to leave positions in front of you that you’re unable to occupy, while the Russians have four alternatives with overlaps that allow them to move to the rear of your positions. I think the individual responsible for these fortifications should face criminal charges."

From Ukrainska Pravda no less.

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