Wow what an analysis. This event could have repercussions! They could be different depending on who views them and what their beliefs are!
this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2024
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"I have no idea what's actually going on because there is no recent precedent for this, but I still need to file 15 column inches anyway or I don't get paid."
Undecided voters are largely a myth. When it comes to Donald Trump there is no one who hasn't decided what they think of him, all the people who would be dumb enough to be undecided this late in the game are already Trump supporters
If "undecided" means, "I'm going to vote, but I could vote for either Trump or [Democratic candidate]," you're completely right. Those two sides of this election are so completely different that it's comical to imagine someone who is a committed voter who still hasn't made up their mind.
When "undecided" means "I haven't decided whether I will vote at all," that's still definitely a thing. Based on Harris' recent appearances, she's going to motivate a lot more people to vote for her than against her. I have a really hard time thinking that someone who wasn't already committed to voting for Trump would only now be moved to vote for him because of Harris.
It's primarily this. Also people who hate both Trump and Biden (now Harris). They might say they are are "undecided" about casting a vote for an alternate candidate as a form of protest.
Yea, the sad American truth is that there are misogynists and racists everywhere.
Everywhere in the Republican party for sure
Biden led by 57 points with Black voters, while Harris held a 64-point advantage in the NBC News poll. Among dissatisfied Republicans, Trump’s lead went from 46 points against Biden to 47 points against Harris.
It’s hard to believe there are people who would vote for a rapist president and against a woman president, but could not be bothered to vote for a rapist president and against a woman vice president. It’s a weird line to draw.
Then again, these people are not exactly known for being reasonable.
46 to 47 is basically a wash. 46 was basically Joe's Ceiling; he is a known quantity. Harris has head room for no other reason than most people know barely anything about her so there is an opportunity to grow her standing.
Great disadvantage about catering very specifically to a rabid minority fanbase: while you're not going to lose supporters very easily, you're probably not going to make very big gains either, no matter what happens. Any improvements the democrats make to eat up those middle ground voters could be devistating
That's the game...did enough of them die off after Hilary's run to make a difference.
Kamala at least makes this race exciting again. I can't tell you how ecstatic I am to hear a leader use full complex sentences and not stumble over big words.
I'm just a foreigner watching in horror from the sidelines, but Harris really does seem like a decent choice – but it's hard for me to say if that's just because the other option is essentially Great Value Cthulhu
Great Value Cthulhu is great btw.
The thing that's going to hurt her maybe is her kind of inconsistent record as a prosecutor. However, that's being spun into progressive before it was cool, so I think she'll be ok there.
The other line of attack that might have some teeth is her dating the San Francisco mayor while he was estranged from his wife (for a decade), but the timeline of her promotions make that kind of a non issue.
The only thing I'm really worried about is how Racist the US is. That might cost us this election, but if that's how we go out, so be it. I'd rather lose with a worthy candidate than lose because we ran the stunt double from Weekend at Bernie's.
I mean, we just had a black president less than 10 years ago, Black Lives Matter was a thing across the country, and Hillary Clinton still won the popular vote, I think she actually has a good shot at it, assuming she/Democrats don't muck it up (which is still a real possibility).
Yeah I can't help but wonder if having a black woman as candidate might be too much for some "liberals"
Honestly, I hadn't really had much hope of Harris as the nominee, I haven't really cared for her performance as VP for the past 4 years, but I think the one major benefit of her entering the race now, is that it draws a much clearer distinction between Republicans and Democrats for more casual voters. It's no longer just two old white guys going against each other ("I can't tell the difference between them"). For most low-level casual voters , that's all they're probably paying attention to, the optics, if they haven't already made a decision at this point, it's because they haven't been paying attention to policy and/or because they're bored listening to old, white politicians talk.
Having Harris in the race though, really draws more contrast between the two candidates in terms of age, race, and gender, it becomes more about which of these two should represent America, and I think may actually work more in Democrats' favor, but it's still early on and it's too early to tell how it plays out.