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As according to pro-Russia trolls here on Lemmy, Ukraine is losing the war, I wonder how much damage they would do to the Russian fleet, if they were actually winning
Not trying to defend Russia, but the concept of a Pyrrhic Victory has existed for quite some time.
Yeah and it’s been Russian military strategy for nearly as long. Idk if Russia will win, but as it is now both countries will struggle under the weight of the loss of population and resources and immense debt that they’re incurring. For Ukraine it’s obviously worth it, but for Russia, I struggle to see how it’s worth it because even victory will come with an angry edge province and political instability.
You are correct in my opinion. It seems whoever orchestrated that thought it would be the second Crimea, forgot Ukraine had 8 years to prepare (even with a shared soviet corruption problems and cheap traitors) and completely ignored the historical case of their resistance in and post WW2. One magazine even published a postponned article summarizing the achievements of russian warriors, and there were public persons speculating about taking Kiyv in three days. Even if you ignore them normalizing of such an act at all, they were sniffing their farts while planning it and thinking it'd go alright.
Mostly because I think Russian high command was telling Putin whatever he wanted to hear. "Yeah boss, sure, we'll just steamroll into Kyiv, nobody will dare fight back against us..." Keep in mind Russia had tried this EXACT same "rush and decapitate" strategy in Georgia in 2008.
even victory will come with an angry edge province and political instability.
Victory would mean Russia has killed most of the Ukrainians who would fight back.
Ukraine has oil reserves that Russia has eyes on. There's the solution to your equation.
I mean atm, Russia is on the offensive and has gotten some actual results. They conquered Marinka, a 10k population village(before war), which defined the line of conflict, and Avdiivka, a major fortress town that has been holding through the entire war, since 2014, is being threatened with encirclement. Zaluzhnyi even said that they might be forced to abandon it within the next couple months. This would be a significant win for the russians if it happens, much more important than Bakhmut.
The Russians have lost several times now than the population of Avdivka trying to take it. Ukraine shifted to an attritional fight to preserve combat power until they could dismantle Russian fires capabilities which they've been doing quite effectively. If they want to win the war with all their objectives, this is exactly how Ukraine does it. Killing Russians is the best way to get them to leave. Never forget that
I agree with what you are saying but you have to realize that this is partially copium. The Americans had great kill ratio in Vietnam but they still lost.
What happened in the past is in the past. Atm Russia has the initiative and seemingly the will and means to continue. Ukraine's means largely depend on the West.
In EU you have the typical bureaucracy and relactancy of reducing the peace dividends by investing in military equipment production. And thats on top of Hungary sabotaging everything and other major economic issues, like agricultural ukranian products and their effect in EU.
In the US, the republicans are blocking everything and Trump is ahead in the polls.
So it is only natural that with all this uncertainty, Ukraine is reluctant in risking an offensive. If the war ends now, Russia has still gained territory, even if it suffered losses, setbacks and failed to achieve its minimum stated goals(securing Donbass). Though at least they have a landbridge to Crimea so thats something.
Russia spent 10 years in Afghanistan and had 50k reported casualties with 15k reported fatalities. It is regarded as an absolute failure and a shameful loss by Russians.
Russia has been attacking Ukraine for 10 years(2014-present) and has had over 350k casualties with over 40k dead including contractors with the majority happening in less than 2 years.
For context, America was in Afghanistan for 20 years and had under 30k casualties and around 7k dead including allies and contractors. We consider it a failure holistically. America was in Vietnam for 20 years and had under 60k deaths and it was an absolute and shameful failure.
Only a Russian troll could consider the war to be anything but a failure for Russia that has weakened itself as a country and a military in jist under 2 years. Russia will fail as a country because of this pointless war of aggression.
Even if they do somehow force Ukraine to surrender - they've spent so much political capital, military power, actual capital, and human lives on this that they'll be recovering from their "victory" for decades.
Everyone who says Ukraine is losing is a troll.
Tell me you're not a victim of propaganda.
Russia can eat my entire ass, but we can't really predict how this conflict will play out. Russia is inept, but they have millions of bodies to essentially Zerg rush into this conflict... and that strategy worked for them in WW2
Russians live in a world of ‘alternate facts’
Ahh. So they are conservatives.
Where do you think they got the idea from?
Let's be honest, much of the world does. This one is just found out.
Yeah, remember when everyone said Ukraine was going to be able to take back Crimea once they got Western weapons?
Where are those people admitting they were wrong after the weapons were delivered and Ukraine made no meaningful gains?
Well, those people are talking about things that they think will happen in the future. It's not surprising that armchair analysts predicts things wrong.
To compare that to a Kremlin appointed governer lying about things that already happened is pretty disingenuous.
There is no truth like a Russian denial.
Why are people surprised that Russia lies? That is the only thing they do that your can count on.
Ukraine underreports their losses too. But they cannot really be blamed. It's important to keep spirits high. It's sort of the same logics Russia uses.
I'm just glad the west support Ukraine as strongly as we do. Gives them actual chances to win this (to Russias annoyance)
Who is surprised?
Why are people surprised that Russia lies?
This isn't unique to Russia or even to this conflict. Information Warfare is a big part of the media campaign to support/undermine the war effort. This isn't new. One classic example - particularly relevant given the geography - is the Battle of the Somme where overly optimistic western news reporting covered up a horrific slaughter of allied forces.
News reports like this are just another angle on the informational campaign, intended to boost western support for the war and present Russian forces as exceptionally weak and prone to failure. During the Iraq Invasion in 2003, we played the same game with "Baghdad Bob" memes, while we glossed over how precarious and unsustainable our charge into the center of Iraq had left the US military. During the "Green Revolution" of 2014, we got to hear all about how weak and fragile the various Middle Eastern governments were, right up until rebellious groups were brutally suppressed and slaughtered from Tunis to Cairo to Damascus to Sana'a to Tehren. I still see Bashar Al-Asad "Who Must Go" memes in circulation, hailing back to that era of heedless hyper-optimism. Nevermind all the shit coming out of Israel's latest incursion into Gaza.
We're going to see "Russia is lying! They're all about to lose! Zelensky will be getting an all-over tan on the beaches of Crimea by next year!" headlines for years to come. That's just the nature of modern media.
The first casualty of war is truth
Winston Churchill ,or someone, maybe
Certain special irony if that's a misquote.
Well you see, comrade, the Ukrainian missile explosion killed one crew member.
The remaining missing servicemen are investigating the minor malfunction of the ship getting too hot from the explosion of the Russian cargo. It is only workplace accident, da?
only one dead because the pieces they found all put together weighed less than a single moblik.
the vaporized, I mean, missing crewmembers are being reported as AWOL and their families will receive no compensation for their traitor kin.
go team ditchmeat!
they deserted to low earth orbit
Blyat!