this post was submitted on 13 Jul 2023
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https://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/arms/cluster031803.htm
This a report from 2003 regarding all US cluster munitions. It's largely based on US Pentagon reports. The specific munitions the US is sending to Ukraine are the 155mm DPICM M483A1 & M864 artillery projectiles (2nd bullet point on the list). The 14% dud rate it reports is from a 2000 study, which admits the munitions are old which is what caused a higher-than-expected dud rate when used in the field.
So yes, assuming a linear half-life, the dud rate of these munitions is probably closer to 30% now (which, by the way, is the number the US uses to accuse Russia for its use of cluster munition and their high dud rate).
They aren't even pretending in their projections anymore...