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If a movement doesn't understand the difference between picking one's battles and acquiescense it's cause is already long lost.
The rate at which the trump admin is willing to turn Resistance Fighters into Martyr Paste is unsustainable for everyone except the trump admin. Antagonizing that administration now, during one of it's many fits of impotent self-importance, is going to end in more dead civilians than if you'd just waited a few days for it's idiot attention span to burn out. It's not a war of attrition based on the competing political wills of two populaces any more, its an abhorent massacre overseen by a psycho. The name of the game is no longer 'Defeat or Drive Out', its 'Survive'.
The Houthis possess over plan B: flatten all Saudi oil reserves and refineries and collapse the global economy.
Ultimately it is the Houthis holding the cards here. Though most Americans do not seem to know it.
Fucking lmao.
As contentious statements go, "The average american does not posess even an abstract understanding of the political and economic realities present in the mid. east" is one I wouldn't even consider objecting to.
Sure but claiming that America, a net energy exporter would have cards held over them because of Saudi oil is a bit silly. America wouldn't be as "touched" by this as you both seem to claim.
The fall of the saudi oil fields would lead to the weakening of opec, and thus the already precarious nature of the petro dollar, a cornerstone of american financial hegemony, would be scooted just that much closer to the edge of collapse. But it is gross understatement to say the politics of this region cannot be accurately summarized in a lemmy comment.
I don't disagree that there's a lot riding on that house of cards, but as you pointed out the stakeholders in keeping that up are nearly every global state. Do the Houthis really hold any cards when they're under that microscope?
I imagine attacking a target that could literally collapse the world economy would be slightly harder than flying drones at a very expensive boat.
Edit: The petrodollar is all but phased out by Saudi Arabia. I don't think that current US financial interests are anywhere near as coupled to those oil fields (compared to just a few years ago).
But... they're attacking said world-collapsable superpower precisely by flying drones at boats. But US geopolitical ties to the House of Saud really are too complex to summarize in a lemmy comment!
So that said, a summary in a lemmy comment: The regional power of the US is very much tied to the stability of Saudi power in the region, which is itself tied to approx. three thousand years of political infighting, outfighting and just general fighting. Its complicated, but our bases alone in the region are dependent on keeping the Saudis in power, and are a huge US consideration.
Idk what realizable power the houtis have, I haven't actually been arguing for them being in what you may call a "good position" since the start of this. All I think is that grabbing the attention of an unstable lunatic is probably a bad idea when he's the head of an operation that can casually warcrime hundreds of your people when not even really trying. Focusing that attention on yourself when you're the aggressors is... only going to end badly, and I wish they acted like they knew that.
There's been more than enough death already without pouring fuel onto the funeral pyres, and as much as I'd like to stop the killing on the "killing" side, that's proving really hard.
Isn't Martyr Paste the stuff that brought down the WTC? If they keep making more and more of it, it's inevitably going to end up on their faces.
9/11 was a fantastic success for fascists, there's never been so much sweeping support for surveillance and racism. No reason to stop killing the geese that bleed the golden paste...
It’s going to be wall-to-wall shocked pikachu in American media when the most incompetent bunch of military leaders the US has ever had makes a mistake and one of their aircraft carriers gets sunk.
I'm reasonably sure that the level of leadership that's running carriers is still mostly competent.
Of course, President Musk might decide to go down there and take personal charge of the carrier group. That might be fun.
No doubt, but for how long is the question. And “There are too many ships together, I want them separated them so that we can control more area. We need one near Crimea, I heard from a friend. Disable all the electric plane lifts as well, we’ll have only the best gas powered lifts from now on. Also, put a destroyer near my beautiful golf course in Scotland so they know I mean business.”
American media has been largely portentious of the loss of a major strategic asser whilst under Trump's care, but you do make a good point...
Let's hope that doesn't happen because oh boy, the consequences would be significant.
Don't touch the boats - Japan learned that the hard way
Also I love HLC he comes up with the best bits.
I won't pretend I know what, if anything, is going on in the Houthi leadership's heads, but I doubt it's that simple. As a government without much international recognition, there's a good chance they can't just afford to look weak, for example. I guess we'll have to wait and see.