this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2024
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bitcoin reserves are auditted as held with full confidence any instant. Gold reserves depend on confidence of last auditor last time it was done, and it would be national security to lie that the reserves are still there.
a 51% attack has a small chance to undo a spend that was done just in last hour
IOUs are not as good as money, IOUs based on a "trust me bro its still there asset" is not as good as IOU based on bitcoin, and an IOU based on fractional reserve inflatable currency is far worse than asset based IOU.
Trying to sell gold coins to pawn shop or gold dealer gets a bad price relative to IOU trading. Global bitcoin exchanges often have the best prices, but nations you'd want to escape will tend to have problems that put a premium on bitcoin because of its escape advantages over gold. The argument that you need to convince bakers in your new country to accept bitcoin is not real. But its easier than gold, tulips, or other currency, or land deed in civil war country. Replace baker with someone on craigslist, and its still easier.
You're arguing here that paying with Bitcoin is bad for the payer because value is certain to go up. That means it's good for the buyer/receiver, which makes it easier if you need something physical/consumable from your "wealth".
Bank panics/failures are frequent enough that the system relies on bailouts for them. Deposit insurance is something customers pay as a hidden fee, but often taxpayer bailouts supplement the failures. Settlement "failure" happens often too. "Trust me I'm solvent bro" is a bad system that has and will regularly fail.
USD has no relevance to value of bitcoin. Mad max with internet access can trade for go juice or guns and bullets. Gold would tend to have very low value because Fort Knox is indefensible. Preparing for global mad max is different than preparing for local chaos. Communal leadership skills you can use to convince building fortifications and somehow secure food access is needed for communal survival. Wealth onto you would come from an ability to impose hierarchical tributary power system.
It can alter or reverse transfers as long as it's going on.
That would be better actually, because there might be a real thing somewhere which the writer of the IOU will give the bearer upon demand. Bitcoin is "Thanks for the $97,430.23 bro trust me bro someone will give you that much or more for that ledger entry in money, goods, or services bro I swear bro because it's scarce bro".
Yeah, today it is easier, because it's bolstered by drug dealers, nerds, and speculators who do their day-to-day living mostly in USD. But in 30 years? I'm not psychic, but I'm guessing that drug dealers will switch to more privacy-focused systems, (tech) nerds will switch to more technologically interesting systems, speculators will find other things to speculate on, and the...right-libertarian nerds might keep the network humming along at a much lower valuation if they don't all collapse in existential horror at the price drop.
"Certain" is an overstatement, but yeah, you can't really use a deflationary money, because it makes more sense to hold it. Money, as a medium of exchange, needs to be stable, erring on the side of inflation. Bitcoin is bad at being money.
That's the theory, but aside from being no way to create an economy, it doesn't follow IRL does it? People aren't exactly clamoring for my Bitcoin. My inflationary dollars are far more in demand.
And yet even the ASICs I can buy with Bitcoin, like the beer I once bought with Bitcoin, all describe their prices foremost in USD. Because that's mostly what it's actually bought with, and sold for.
You know, blockchains are neat and by virtue of that Bitcoin is neat. But there's nothing particularly good about it, and it's rife with flaws. Its principles are flawed, and it's not backed up by anything but hopes and dreams. It's a fun thing to gamble with, but there are more interesting blockchains, and no blockchains are mature enough to be really anything more than just fun to mess with.
You accept $20 because you are confident it is worth $20 tomorrow. You put it in a bank hoping the interest will cover inflationary depreciation, and hoping the bank will give it back when you ask for it. Btc does not have that 2nd risk, but you can still accept it as payment and sell it on an exchange shortly after, if you trust bank IOUs more.
You can't buy beer with gold or amazon stock, though can with bitcoin, even if cash is easier. Investments are a separate market, and they all have the buyer's hope of higher future value.