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Where is the speculative analysis around "alien" tech in geopolitics? (lemmygrad.ml)

submitted 4 weeks ago by freagle@lemmygrad.ml to c/asklemmy@lemmy.ml

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I am looking for anyone writing about the various theories and "revelations" regarding extraterrestrial and cryptoterrestrial technologies and their implication in geopolitics.

Specifically, I am looking for analyses that seek to identify conditions that might be true if we assume one or more actors of various classes (states, militaries, intelligence communities, alliances, non-state actors, "aliens" themselves) has possession of non-contiguous technologies. Having identified some of these conditions, I would hope the analysis then goes on to compare historical and current conditions to see if there is evidence to support or contradict such possession.

An example might be an analysis that shows a state, like the USA, with possession of such non-contiguous technology, if they were able to make it battle ready, might under invest in traditional warfare production like what we see today.

Another example might be how a state like the USA might use limited conflicts to gather intelligence on capabilities from other states that could reveal those states' level of non-contiguous tech readiness, and then analyze how the Ukraine war might fit those conditions or predict how the prosecution of a hot conflict with China in Taiwan or Korea might look under these conditions.

Does anyone know of any writers doing this sort of work?

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[–] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 4 weeks ago (2 children)

I am not talking about speculative fiction and what could happen. I am talking about taking your hypothesis - that alien contact has not happened at all - and attempting to build a steel-person argument against it.

This is how we got the cryptoterrestrial hypothesis: 1 assume UAPs are alien ships, 2 assume our understanding of physics is accurate, 3 assume that aliens wouldn't fly all this way for nothing, what could be a possible explanation for 1 and 2? This the cryptoterrestrial hypothesis is born and now we can setup experiments to gather sufficient evidence to close out that hypothesis.

I am looking for something similar with regard to the theories of alien contact resulting in an arms race. The best way to defeat any ridiculous hypothesis is to steel-person it.

[–] davel@lemmy.ml 2 points 4 weeks ago (1 children)

y tho. I guess I’m sorry you’re in some awkward position that makes such an exercise worthwhile. Is it Thanksgiving with family? 😬

[–] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 4 weeks ago

It's an intellectual pursuit like analyzing the situation in Ukraine or analyzing decisions before the FTC or analyzing a football league

[–] Xiisadaddy@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 4 weeks ago (1 children)

Why would you assume our understanding of physics is accurate? It very clearly isn't. Thats why we rely on general relativity and quantum mechanics, and dont have a unified theory. Our theories work in most cases but break down in some areas thats pretty well known. No scientist worth their salt would ever claim we have a 100% understanding of physics. Hell not even 90% id wager. We dont know what we dont know. There could be entire fundamental laws and forces we are entirely unaware of, and in fact many people think there are.

[–] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 4 weeks ago (1 children)

It's a thought experiment to analyze specific variables. Whatever we assume as given for this experiment is not what we're trying to understand. If we assume our understanding of physics is accurate for this thought experiment, it allows us to focus on the behavioral variables in the geopolitical, military, economic, and economic dimensions. I am not interested in a thought experiment that identifies what are the possible areas of new physics that could be implied from this thought experiment, all though a deeper analysis might indicate that specific new physics might result in specific behaviors of states and we need to itemize them as additional thought experiments.

Remember that this is a thought experiment. I am using the word "assume" like we're doing geometry in math class. Assume the triangle XYZ has one angle of 60 degrees. Why would you assume that? Because it's useful when doing an analytical exercise.

In the larger context, I don't assume our physics is accurate, but I'm not interested in speculating on the ways in which it's inaccurate for this thought experiment.

[–] Xiisadaddy@lemmygrad.ml 0 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

if your not interested in incorporating material reality into you analysis then your gonna come to false conclusions.

[–] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 0 points 3 weeks ago

It's clear that you don't understand the value of speculative analysis and thought experiments. That's OK. Just stop engaging.