this post was submitted on 22 Oct 2024
575 points (96.9% liked)

World News

38977 readers
3492 users here now

A community for discussing events around the World

Rules:

Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.


Lemmy World Partners

News !news@lemmy.world

Politics !politics@lemmy.world

World Politics !globalpolitics@lemmy.world


Recommendations

For Firefox users, there is media bias / propaganda / fact check plugin.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/media-bias-fact-check/

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc -3 points 1 week ago (3 children)

What a silly thing to say.

You realise extinction requires no living specimens to exist right?

Some number of humans will prevail even if the only thing left to eat is slime mold.

Climate change is a big deal. The future is very bleak. People with the power to mitigate the damage are doing the opposite.

Claiming that human extinction is possible or likely about as helpful as suggesting that ancient aliens have the solution.

[–] YeetPics@mander.xyz 7 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Claiming that human extinction is possible

What a silly thing to say, indeed. Of course it's possible.

Oh yes, silly me. Anything is possible.

Let's all bemoan the possibility that a nearby supernova destroys all life on planet earth next week, rather than confronting the nuance of the problems we face and developing constructive solutions.

[–] LengAwaits@lemmy.world 4 points 1 week ago (1 children)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-47540-7

Don't miss this bit:

The bounds are subject to important limitations. Most importantly, they only apply to extinction risks that have either remained constant or declined over human history. Our 200 kyr track record of survival cannot rule out much higher extinction probabilities from modern sources such as nuclear weapons or anthropogenic climate change.

[–] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc -4 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Oh sweetheart.

Did you google "human extinction science" and link the first result without reading it?

The part you quoted just says modern extinction risks are out of scope for this study.

It does not say that extinction is probable or likely.

[–] healthetank@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

Our 200 kyr track record of survival **cannot rule out much higher extinction probabilities **

I'm not sure if you're being disingenuous or you're just not very bright.

"much higher extinction probabilities" doesn't really mean anything.

The probabilities referred to in this paper are very low. Less than 1 in 14,000 in an extraordinarily conservative estimate, 87,000 is probably a more useful number. So each year you roll that 14,000 sided dice with 1 chance of becoming extinct that year.

This is where it says that:

Using the fact that humans have survived at least 200 kyr, we can infer that the annual probability of human extinction from natural causes is less than 1 in 87,000 with modest confidence (0.1 relative likelihood) and less than 1 in 14,000 with near certainty (10−6 relative likelihood). These are the most conservative bounds. Estimates based on older fossils such as the ones found in Morocco dated to 315 kya result in annual extinction probabilities of less than 1 in 137,000 or 1 in 23,000 (for relative likelihood of 0.1 and 10−6, respectively). Using the track record of survival for the entire lineage of Homo, the annual probability of extinction from natural causes falls below 1 in 870,000 (relative likelihood of 0.1). We also conclude that these data are unlikely to be biased by observer selection effects, especially given that the bounds are consistent with mammalian extinction rates, the temporal range of other hominin species, and the frequency of potential catastrophes and mass extinctions.

So, a "much higher probability" might be 2 in 87,000 for example. Much higher than 1 in 87,000 but still not very likely. More to the point, the paper is saying it doesn't consider those factors, they're out of scope, the methodology used in the paper is incapable of assessing the likelihood of nuclear annihilation.

Honestly, if this paper is the best argument you have that human extinction is likely then you really have nothing.

[–] LengAwaits@lemmy.world 1 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

Look, I know it's not something anyone wants to confront, but I'm not sending it out of malice, or to attack you. There's no need to be condescending.

I simply want to be realistic about the world we live in. From my point of view it is better to be concerned about the possibility of human extinction and act as though it is a potential outcome, rather than to pretend that our species has wholly conquered the laws of nature and is indestructible.

[–] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc 1 points 1 week ago (1 children)

It's impossible not to sound condescending when talking to someone who's just making stuff up and claiming that it's a plausible assertion.

You're not being realistic, you're being dramatic.

Human extinction is not a realistic nor likely outcome to the problems humanity presently faces.

Even in the worst projections for climate change, some areas of the globe will still be able to support life.

[–] LengAwaits@lemmy.world 1 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Alright. I'm sorry to have annoyed you. I was just hoping for a discussion.

We have a difference of opinion and that's alright. My concerns surrounding the Holocene extinction event triggering total ecosystem collapse need not be yours.

I'm a human behind a screen, just like you. It's free to be kind to people, even when you disagree with them.

[–] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc 2 points 1 week ago (1 children)

You haven't annoyed me. I'm sorry if my manner offends you.

No one in this thread has been able to demonstrate that human extinction is likely.

[–] LengAwaits@lemmy.world 1 points 1 week ago

That's totally fair, and to clarify my own stance: I don't think it's likely, or even possible that the human population will drop to 0 in my lifetime, let alone in the next few hundred years.

I'm primarily concerned about a compounding of factors that lead toward an increasingly higher probability of that outcome. I'm thus unwilling to take a "we don't have to worry about human extinction because it's statistically unlikely" stance. I'm also not attempting to assert that that's your stance, either. I don't know enough about what you believe to make any assertions about that at this point.

I really appreciate your reply, and I'm not trying to be snarky, here. I came to Lemmy, initially, looking for higher levels of discourse than are available on Reddit, and I get a little high-and-mighty about that. So I also apologize if I'm coming off as an ass.

[–] Vandals_handle@lemmy.world 1 points 1 week ago

Interesting thought. What is the nutritional profile for slime mold, can humans survive eating just slime mold?