politics
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If Trump wins I don't think they'll immediately replace him. Keep in mind Trump is easy to influence. He'll agree to anything if you butter him up a bit so a lot of damage can be done under the guise of "Trump did it".
Only when he rants out of line or does something that can't be sanewashed will he be removed. In terms of ideal timing (for Republicans) right after the midterms works best. Trump usually causes problems for the midterms, but assuming he can shuffle past, after the midterms would be best. It would give Vance the incumbency advantage and still allow him to run for two terms.
Of course Vance doesn't have the charisma for that, so it's unlikely to actually happen.