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IIRC, Manchin previously announced that he isn't going to run again.
If he weren't fairly close to Republican positions, he probably wouldn't even be in office now; during the time that he was in politics, West Virginia shifted from being a very blue state to being a very red state. I'd argue that that's mostly a function of party realignment than changes inside West Virginia, but it doesn't matter much from the standpoint of a politician's electoral viability, as the brand still has an impact.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Manchin
Hmm. Apparently -- hadn't heard of this until reading this -- he's also no longer a Democrat, re-registered as an independent. The brand probably became too much of a political liability.
EDIT: And it's not just that all West Virginia's federal representatives except him are Republican. Here's the current state Senate and House composition, to give an idea, red showing Republican and blue Democrat. Not easy to be elected as a Democrat in West Virginia in 2024.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_Legislature
EDIT2: Yeah, he announced back in 2023 that he's not seeking re-election.