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I'm checking silver bullets, Nate silvers blog.
538 isn't what it used to be. It had Biden winning when he was polling At 38%. You shouldn't rely on it.
He campaign has absolutely been a bummer and she's not winning this election at the moment. Lemmy has repeatedly gaslit itself into a delusional state around what is happening in reality and it seems to be happening again in regards to Kamala Harris performance. Gaslighting yourself at your own peril.
Lemmy is an echo chamber with mods who editorially filter the views they want to see. If you are relying on it for confirmation of your world view, you are in for a deep and upsetting shock. The perfect example of this was Biden, his performance, and his ability to win. Another even more recent example of this was Walzs performance in the debate (the question of if he won).
On polling, where we can actually have a conversation. Within the MOE is losing for a democratic candidate. Harris needs overwhelming numbers to account for existing and upcoming structural issues to the election. She doesn't have those, and her trajectory isn't up (like it was drying and immediately after the convention). It's going down, and that's terrible if you want to keep Trump out of office. It's because she's making the classic mistake Democrats always seem to make which is to start on the left but shift to the center.
Harris topped out in growing her support about 2 weeks after the convention and with every step to the right, she backslides further. If she continues the strategy she employed from the convention to now, she will 💯 lose this election.
I guess we're just going to have to disagree in this one.
I'm not sure what you take issue with but thats your business.