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This isn't how people work I think. Instead you will have people who have been primed by prior experience that their ignorance worked out. EG people who by dint of age and health only ever had <1/10th of 1% of dying from covid didn't get vaccinated and had covid 3 times and are fine LEARNED that vaccinating isn't important.
If there is a 50% mortality event they will have learned that their shit works long enough to catch it and die while listening to their facebook groups tell them they just need to take some vitamin C. They'll keep telling each other its all a scam, just normal flue, someone will chime in that they've already had it months prior to this being even possible. They'll shit talk until they die in their houses.
The stupid “I did it and I’m fine” line of thinking makes for a really convincing argument for a lot of people. It’s messed up.