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An egg came first, but it came from something genetically extremely close to a modern chicken (you can't hatch a chicken from anything that is not a chicken egg and there's no compelling evidence that one suddenly mutated itself in all the right ways to become a chicken before laying that egg).
Anyway, on the actual topic, yeah, I think I agree with everything you've mentioned here. I think it would take YouTube doing something profoundly stupid to give enough of an opening that any alternative (which may not necessarily even wind up being PeerTube -- people may end up going to even something like PornHub instead (and I think all the others like DailyMotion are (mostly?) dead now)) to get a chance. I don't see companies like Nebula ever going the route of opening up like YouTube .