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https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/media-bias-fact-check/
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My guess: unresolved national tensions and probable separatism seeds + weakness of the state in the last year (Prigo's march, Krokus, buryatian demonstrations against jailing a known activist) + 24\7 stream of hatred on TV + jealousy of more autonomous and supported regions. That's not like there wasn't any violence here, but recently it became more apparent with Mahachkala's airport being crowded by a mob of locals to 'meet' people who arrived from Israel. This place becomes more dangerous and as you pointed out Moskow would likely ignore it. And it's too random for a false flag, I believe.
If I'm to guess based off your username, you probably have a lot better understanding of the Caucasus than I do. Thank you for your views.
Having just done a little research, I see Dagestan is high majority Muslim too, I can see that also adding some stress between them and the Orthodoxy common in the rest of Russia/it's government. And give separatists a lever to push on.
That operation was a real ballroom blitz, I tell ya.
Yes, the Soviet union collapsed under a lot of internal pressure and strive. And when the Soviet army was overextended and the government could no longer control their Empire. Losing in Afghanistan showed internal forces that the bear was not unbeatable.
I think it is safe to say that the Russian empire is getting more than a bloody nose in Ukraine.
So in this case there will be plenty of parties that have a bone to pick with the Russian empire and see the Russian army is ... well ... Busy.