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The feedback loop spoiler idea only works if there are literally no material goals, only an idealist goal to move towards progressivism. This isn't how reality works.
Not supporting genocide is a large material goal, and the Israel/Palestine conflict wasn't at the worst it's ever been in 2020, but it is in 2024. The material goals changed. In 2020 the biggest issue I was aware of was stopping fascism in America. Now that doesn't even come close to stopping the ramped up genocide, that happened as a direct result of the endorsement of Israel by the Biden administration.
I would vote for a Democratic candidate that wants to end the genocide. Sure, they can still be a corporate boot-licking liberal. Biden was in 2020 and I still voted for him because the material outcome I wanted was satisfied.
It is not satisfied in 2024. The Palestinian genocide is far more important now, as it's happening literally faster than any time in history. You claim that leftists have some idealist goal to just move Democrats to the left, so a refusal to engage with these leftists is the only option Democrats have, but this ignores a massive difference between socialists and fascists, socialists are materialists and fascists are idealists.
It's a disingenuous portrayal of how leftists actually think. I suspect you're conflating socialist thought with fascist thought either because you're a liberal or because you're unfamiliar with socialist theory. Either way, it's worth getting more educated, the extreme left does not function the same way the extreme right does, and you seem to think it does.
A shift to the left for the Democratic Party means adopting progressive policies, ie material goals. It is not about an idealist movement to progressivism.
Moving away from supporting Israel is a policy which would go against seventy years of US policy for either Republicans or Democrats. Biden's initial response was inline with standing US policy. So for starters, the fact Biden has moved as far to the left on this issue as he has in response to the Uncommitted Movement is phenomenal. I think we still have further to go, but it's a good sign so far.
No, like any voting block progressives want Democrats to enact progressive policies, which would be a shift to the left. Opposing Israel's genocide would be one such policy. My point is that Democrats will respond to progressives voting for them by shifting to the left. They will not shift to the left or in any direction on the political spectrum because of third party voter turn out, as they are not incentivized to do so.
Socialism and fascism are not constrained by concepts like materialism and idealism. Both socialism and fascism hold ideals about what they envision for society. These ideals vary wildly between those two groups and I would argue that a fascist's idea of an ideal is nightmarish to say the least. A socialist ideal would be equality. In the workplace sure, but in general as well. A fascist ideal would be harkening to an imagined past or believing in a pretend purity of a bloodline or a system of nonsensical skull measurements. Both socialism and fascism have materialistic goals as well. Socialists would like to see corporations owned collectively by workers as opposed to share holders or a single individual. Fascists want to see workers of minority groups discriminated against and ousted from the workforce by employers, forced to live on the street by landlords, and then sent to die in death camps for homeless people by the federal government.
I recommend Ken Rudin's Political Junky.
https://www.krpoliticaljunkie.com/
Also, Vaush.
https://www.youtube.com/@Vaush
Recommendations aside, I would say in terms of how typical mainstream political parties work, the strategy for all voting blocks is the same. If a voting block wants to drive a typical mainstream political party in their direction on the political spectrum all they need to do is vote for that party. The political party will see that the voting block is voting for them and enact policies that reflect the voting block's political ideology.
Exactly like you said, it's not about an idealist movement towards progressivism, that's exactly why the feedback loop isn't an issue. When certain material goals are met, progressives are satisfied. It's not an endless pit of progressive ideals, it's about actual changes we want to see in Democrat policy. Once those changes are made, we vote Democrat to reinforce good behavior.
A shift to the left means adopting progressive policies. There is more than one progressive policy. As Democrats shift to the left they will adopt some progressive policies. It would take multiple elections for the Democratic Party, currently a center right party, to move to even center left on the political spectrum, let alone left on the political spectrum. Although there are a finite number of progressive policies, it would still take multiple elections for the Democrats to adopt them all.
Democrats will not respond to a feedback loop that involves progressives not voting for them now, to get a more progressive Democratic Party later. Especially when this loop would take multiple elections to adopt all progressive policies. Democrats want to win elections. The Democratic Party is not going to spend even one election cycle, let alone multiple elections cycles, chasing progressive voters who didn't vote blue because those progressive voters didn't get everything they wanted.
The Democratic Party caters to mainstream voters and people who vote for them. Since progressives aren't the former they are going to want to be the latter. Progressives repeatedly turning out for the Democratic Party will cause them to shift to the left, ie adopt progressive policies.
Democrats won't respond to a bunch of uncommitted voters beyond just lip service. The genocide will continue, fiscal conservative austerity politics will continue. The best we'll get is a return to the world of 2015. That's the absolute best case with another Biden term, and even that is unlikely.
I know the genocide isn't a big deal for you or other moderate libs, and you're more concerned with getting America back to its status quo than doing anything that might actually help Palestinians in the future.
The Democratic party caters to power. They want to stay in power. If enough people vote green who previously voted Democrat, they know there's something that moved them that way, and they'll know that some of those voters can be recaptured. You have an incredibly naive and rosey view of bourgoise democracy.
It's not easier to pull a Trump cultist who has been voting Republican for 40 years, over a person who voted Democrat in 2020 and Green in 2024. It's quite easy to reason out, and even if you don't understand this simple fact, Democrats in 2028 will at least, because it's essentially their full time job to maintain power.