this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2024
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Ukraine

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Officials are set to ask Russia's Federation Council and the State Duma "to implement measures to protect Transnistria in the face of increased pressure from Moldova," local media reported the resolution as saying.

The cogress said the Moldovan government had unleashed "economic war" on the region, blocking crucial imports and seeking to turn it into a "ghetto".

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[–] tal@lemmy.today 11 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)

I feel like this would work better if Russia had already conquered Ukraine up to and including Odesa.

Russia cannot move forces through Ukraine. That's a hot war, and Ukraine will shoot at them.

I don't think that Russia can fly through Romanian airspace, even with civilian flights, as the EU closed their airspace.

Maybe Russia could fly forces and military cargo into Transnistria in on another country's civilian aircraft. I don't know how much control Moldova has over Transnistria's airports.

EDIT: Apparently the transit issue already came up. Transnistria apparently has three airports:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_in_Transnistria

All three are listed as inactive.

For Tiraspol Airport:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiraspol_Airport

Until 1989, it was used as a military airfield of the Soviet Air Forces. In 1991, work began on converting the airfield into a commercial airport, which would be the largest in Transnistria. These works were suspended due to the lack of funding and the political unsettledness of the status of Transnistria, which did not allow the customs and border services of the Republic of Moldova to be located at the airport and, consequently, to fly outside the country.

On May 10, 2016, Transnistrian President Shevchuk confirmed the intention to transform the Tiraspol airfield into a civilian airport, but indicated that "neither Moldova nor Ukraine are ready to give the appropriate permissions to transit through their territory or turn around through their territory."[10]

So, basically, it sounds like Ukraine or Moldova need to be onboard for civilian flights to be flying through. They already said no, and even if they did, Moldovan customs officers would get to be at the airport and control (which apparently Transnistria refused).

[–] tal@lemmy.today 4 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

Also, for completeness, Moldova does apparently have one small port that ships can sail to:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Giurgiule%C8%99ti

The Port of Giurgiulești (Romanian: Portul Giurgiulești), officially the Giurgiulești International Free Port (Romanian: Portul Internațional Liber Giurgiulești, PILG), is a port on the Danube River at its confluence with the Prut and the only port in Moldova.[1][2]

It is Moldova's only port accessible to seagoing vessels, situated at km 133 (nautical mile 72) of the River Danube in the south of Moldova.[3] It operates both a grain and an oil terminal as well as a passenger terminal.[4]

But that's got some issues that I think would prevent Russia from using it to put forces into Moldova:

  • It's on the other side of Moldova from Transnistria. The port is not in the Transnistrian portion of Moldova. I.e. Moldova can say no to ships and can presumably search cargo and control passengers at customs.

  • Reaching it requires sailing up the Danube. One bank is Romania, and the other bank is Ukraine. I don't think that there are any rights that ships have to sail there; it's not international waters. I don't believe that innocent passage applies to reaching ports on a river. And I'm pretty sure that Romania and Ukraine both have a healthy disinterest in Russia moving forces into Transnistria.

Based on this (Table 1, Page 8), goods going to Moldova via sea apparently normally go through Odesa in Ukraine:

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/766431468139805224/pdf/347710PAPER0Tr101OFFICIAL0USE0ONLY1.pdf

I am pretty confident that Ukraine is not going to be onboard with Russia moving military forces through Odesa to Transnistria.