this post was submitted on 02 Mar 2024
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I don’t see how the US could possibly be the one precenting a diplomatic solution in Ukraine? Russia continues to presue maximum war aims, including having officially amexed whole regions into the the Russian Federation that has not at any point in the conflict been held by Russia, and maintaining that any peace not only mandates that Ukraine can not at any point in the future join any defensive alliance or pact but also that Ukraine stops holding elections in favor of its leaders being appointed solely by Moscow.
The territory thing is important because the Ukrainian constitution specifically requires that any change in the nations borders be approved by a public referendum in which all citizens can vote. Given that current polling shows about 2 to 4 percent support for such a referendum, such a deal is unlikely to be approved anytime soon.
Militarily, it is important to note that the Russian government is not and has never been the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union’s was an alliance of dozens of nations where the majority of its military production were in nations like Ukraine, Germany, and Poland. Russia has large reserves of Soviet equipment in fields that it has been rebuilding, but a limited ability to produce fully new equipment. Hence why for instance they are buying up large portions of the North Korean ammunition stockpiles to make up for a lack of domestic supply.
On the other hand, Ukraine’s production is in the other hundred and ninty some odd nations that make up the gobal economy. Supporting it has made up a relatively small percentage of that economy, which is why in 2023 for instance the US provided over twice as many old tanks to Romania alone than it did to Ukraine. More importantly, the US can build thouse new tanks without starting by pulling a rusted shell out of a field first.
Given that at the current rate of Russian advancement it will take them decades to get back to where they were a few years ago, and over a century to fully concur all of Ukraine, the general strategy has been to let the dictator burn though his stockpiles and foreign exchange reserves while training the Ukrainians on stuff like tanks and air defense that entered production after the fall of Soviet Union.
That number seems a bit unbelievably low to me.
If such a deal could be reached and Russia would get the Donbass and some other areas they already have now, why would 96-98% Ukrainians really not want that if it finally brings this terrible war to an end? After all those regions like the Donbass were already nothing but war-torn cesspools (think MH17!) where most of their remaining inhabitants actually prefer to be under the Russian regime for whatever reason. I don't think a normal Ukrainian that just wants to live without war will actually care whether they get these regions back. There's nothing left standing there anyway.
Personally if I were a Ukrainian from Kiev I would definitely not want to risk dying over some distant area full of rebel farmers. Just give them to Putin and see how they like being under his regime (I imagine, not very much). I would just want to live my life again and I wouldn't care about my country's borders being a little smaller. It's just some lines on a map. A matter of 'national pride' is not worth dying over. And life in Ukraine is basically at a standstill. People can't plan for the future, build a career, buy a home etc. That can't continue forever.
The question of course is whether Putin would actually stop forever or if it would just offer him a respite to build up his forces again for round 2. I would assume it would be most likely. But of course, so could Ukraine. Besides, Putin is getting old. We never thought that after Beria and Cruchev someone like Gorbachev would come but he did. Someone else could stand up after Putin and peace might well last.
But anyway, if they want this to continue, so be it. I just think it's unlikely Russia will ever be completely beaten back even if NATO did get involved (and it won't because it would lead to terrible escalation) and who wants another 10 years of war? Yes, Russia was wrong for attacking Ukraine and has committed terrible war crimes but at this point I think a compromise should be reached to stop further loss of life. Ukraine has fought very well to push them back but whatever little Russia has now is not important enough to die over IMO. Lately the victories have been very hard-fought with very nasty losses. Even if the war ended with the current status quo, Ukraine should be really proud of what they have achieved. They would have beaten back the lion.
PS: This might sound harsh sure but I really don't see what they have to gain by fighting to the bitter end to get that Donbass back.
How is this perspective different during an invasion of a hostile, genocidal force than simply copping to cowardice and collaboration?