this post was submitted on 11 Feb 2024
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Showerthoughts
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Am I weird because I would do the exact opposite. the fact that it landed like this time and time again tells me either the croupier has a biased throwing technique or the wheel is broken atm.
No you're not wrong. There's a reverse fallacy called the ludic fallacy: an unwarranted belief that the rules of the game describe how the game actually works.
"Given a fair table, if red comes up 99 times in a row, what are the relative odds of getting red vs. black?"
Mathematician, falling for the ludic fallacy: 1:1
Realist: You're wrong. The table isn't fair. Red is more likely.
However, people tend to underestimate how likely long runs are at a fair table.
Thanks for elaborating. :)
That could be reasonable in certain scenarios, but that's technically not the gambler's fallacy anymore; at that point you're talking about the "something specifically made it that way" I mentioned. I was talking about uniform/fair distribution of outcomes (part of the definition of the gambler's fallacy), otherwise it's just "hey, this distribution is lopsided as hell".
Interesting! Thanks for the heads up.