this post was submitted on 11 Feb 2024
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Showerthoughts

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A "Showerthought" is a simple term used to describe the thoughts that pop into your head while you're doing everyday things like taking a shower, driving, or just daydreaming. A showerthought should offer a unique perspective on an ordinary part of life.

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The Gambler's Fallacy makes sense logically, but it feels so wrong emotionally. (lemmy.world)
submitted 9 months ago by alt_total_loser@lemmy.world to c/showerthoughts@lemmy.world
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I can accept the fact that on a Roulette wheel (as long as there are no defects or imbalances in the wheel or ball) that the odds are the same each spin and previous spin outcomes have no influence over the current spin. However, if I see black come up 32 times in a row I am betting on red for the next spin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

The Gambler's Fallacy is Really Odd

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[–] originalfrozenbanana@lemm.ee 36 points 9 months ago

In a Bayesian sense this would be called updating your prior. You assume the wheel is truly random. After many observations that assumption seems not to hold so you adjust your prior probability that any given spin will land on black to be higher.