this post was submitted on 11 Feb 2024
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Showerthoughts
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Tbh if I see black come up 32 times in a row I'm probably betting on black just because I'm gonna start getting suspicious this wheel has actually been biased towards black somehow and isn't as random as it's supposed to be. Is there such a thing as an inverse gamblers fallacy?
In a Bayesian sense this would be called updating your prior. You assume the wheel is truly random. After many observations that assumption seems not to hold so you adjust your prior probability that any given spin will land on black to be higher.
If you have good reason to believe it's a fair wheel, that's actually still just the gambler's fallacy.
If you have no exceptional reason to believe it's fair, it would be updating your priors, like the other commenter said.