this post was submitted on 28 Dec 2023
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So, back to the original question: what makes you think that using public torrent trackers are not representative of the bigger picture?
Yes, obviously not being able to use private stats from private sources narrows the scope, but what makes you think it cannot be extrapolated? Personally, I think that private trackers or usenet would paint the same picture, and niche providers would be too small to make a dent in the stats.
Because I'm more interested in data than opinion. Maybe they're the same, maybe they aren't; without any data to back it up, that's all it is, opinions.
When I said the numbers muddy, I'm not saying they're wrong necessarily; just that they become quite unclear. You can't be sure they're accurate because you're making assumptions to reach them.
Part of this stems from an opinion of my own however: that public torrents are a shrinking market share of piracy. More and more I see conversations dominated by streams, private torrent trackers, and usenet. That's not to say they've disappeared or ever will, but other means seem more common lately. Though that's admittedly hard to gauge.
A small slice can give you an idea of what the bigger picture may be, but the smaller the slice the less chance that idea will be accurate. Take a jigsaw puzzle for example: if I only look at 10% of the pieces I may get enough detail to figure out what the image is supposed to be, or maybe I'll only get pieces of the empty blue sky... (or is that water... I can't tell)