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Pandemic-disrupted supply chains are pretty much righted. Inflation is already back near normal levels. Labor shortages have eased. The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates next year.
We'll still get a thousand stories about a looming recession.
Inflation is back near normal, but prices are not, and wages have not shifted to match those prices (partially due to the government fighting "wage inflation"). People are still worse off than they used to be. I don't think this is Biden's fault, but here we are anyway.
Biden has called this out. A lot of companies are still raising prices or aren't letting prices fall. They're still saying "oh, this is inflation causing this" while their costs fall and their profits rise.
Biden can't stop them singlehandedly. (He's a President, not a Supreme Dictator.) But he can call them out on it and use what powers he has to bear down on them somewhat if they don't stop.
It might not get all of them to stop (some might risk fines because the profits would be greater), but hopefully it will direct the anger towards the actual culprits - big companies taking advantage of past inflation to raise prices.
No but since he couldn't stop them he decided the working class would pay the price and had the Federal Reserve fuck over the American people.
Free markets will stop that if they just let them. Unless there's an actual cartel.
People are looking at inflation dropping, thinking that's an immediate fix. They're forgetting that inflation is a measure of velocity. The ground that prices gained isn't being eaten back up unless inflation goes to an effective negative compared to income.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/deflation-inflation-november-2023-in-one-chart.html
https://fortune.com/2023/12/12/wage-growth-exceeded-inflation-jec-democrats/
Those articles sure dont reflect the reality of me or anyone I know, by even a smidge
That's not why people are feeling pessimistic. Too much of the economic recovery is going to corporate profits and capitalist shareholders. The federal minimum wage is still half of a poverty wage, and the rent is still too damn high. The hyperinflation of the pandemic has made working for a living unsustainable. Taking inflation from 9% to 3% is great (setting aside for this conversation that any President shouldn't really take credit for economic matters) but it's reduce the rate at which a bad thing is getting worse. Existence is still unaffordable even with everybody employed. That's not spin, that's just the reality we've all been living in for a long time. The twin disasters of Trump and the pandemic put it all in stark relief, laying bare the grift of conservativism.
Biden is struggling because he's trying to play old politics. We've crossed the rubicon. Going back to normal isn't enough for people to feel hopeful, and reducing the rate of collapse isn't leadership. Biden thinks being at the helm while the ship slowly rights itself is the same as leadership, and there are enough people attacking him from the extreme other side that nobody is particularly happy with him.
Everything you said is absolutely true and I agree with what is and should be happening.
However, the article is saying that surveyed people think the economy is crashing and unemployment is high.
I think it's fair for Biden to say, "hey, you fuckers keep telling me you want capitalism. This is what capitalism looks like. This is success in capitalism. It's up to the unions at this point in a capitalist system."
Even though like you said it isn't working. But not for the reasons why media makes it seem, which is what turns people to the right thinking that more extreme capitalism and deregulation will fix it!
The looming recession talk is over. They’re ready to start making real money in the stock market again and are tired of the impact the recession talk had this year. It’s no surprise that it’s been about bang on a year since the recession talk started as we came into 2023 and the stock market hit record highs as we’re coming into 2024.
It was all fabricated for… reasons. Big orgs wanted to lay people off for some reason. Investment bankers wanted to gobble up securities for cheaper. Real estate firms wanted to drive down the real cost of homes (higher interest rates = lower sale price but higher cost to families, firms benefit by paying cash). They wanted it so they made it happen. They no longer want it so it’ll end.
Indeed. Much as though I like my payments from JP Morgan, Jamie Diamon was one of the first to scream recession. He did that to increase his own wealth, not any other reason.
That's true but peoples wages haven't gone up at a rate that keeps pace so everyone still feels poor and can't buy the things they need. That's the big issue. That's not been fixed and there is no plan to fix it. Now we all just have to wait around until our wages start to increase but we all know how long that takes.
The problem is that there is no way to fix it without fucking shit up worse. Attempting to create deflation is bad for everyone as the economy will stop growing which will lead to job loss. A recession is another way to get it done, but then that would require high levels of unemployment, and still won't bring prices down.
We're seeing the best possible outcome right now where inflation is down and wages are rising faster than it, and housing prices are coming down, meaning we are on track for the issue of unaffordability to go away. The Fed seems to have pulled off what most people thought was impossible: a soft landing.
We're possibly witnessing something absolutely amazing. This is not to detract from the struggles people are experiencing, but the fact that they don't recognize how much better off they are then how it could have been is disappointing.
Americans are not stupid. You will not convince them the economy is good by spitting out some numbers twisted from the data. They feel it. They know how easy or hard it is to make ends meet. They know their rent goes up every year while their wages do not.
And the harder is gets, the more radical the population becomes. Establishment democrats like Biden will not be able to maintain the status quo. Normally I wouldn't care but their incompetence has consequences. A Trump victory at this point may signal the end of the US as we know it. We cannot continue to stay asleep at the wheel.
Your purchasing power has fallen over 20% in the last 3 years. We're talking and average of around 7% real inflation per year. Not the official "~3%" the government puts out. That's over 3x higher than average over the last 4 decades.
The economy has been bad, but that doesn't change that it is getting better on many important metrics. These are leading indicators, predicting what will be, but the effects that people are feeling are more like lagging indicators that are reacting to the past and present. Hopefully we see these predictions play out in the next year before the election and into the next presidency.
What we're going to see is a slight boost in the coming months as the federal reserve lowers the interest rate (by coincidence, also an election year 🤔)
But with the interest rate going down, the main barrier holding us back from higher inflation is being torn down. What will be the consequences of this? Prices will rise.
I think they are betting that the Ukrainian war ends in the next few months. If not ends, at least becomes a frozen conflict. This would remove a large inflationary pressure from the global system.
It's a gamble. Perhaps they even are negotiating with Russia behind the scenes. Russian high-level officials were spotted flying to DC last week.
We'll have to see. Hopefully they can end the war and lower interest rates. That would in effect give a large boost right before the 2024 election. Is that enough to pry the election away from Trump? I don't know. Biden is incredibly unpopular (even more unpopular than Trump at this same time! One of the least popular presidents in history).
No one has been talking about a recession lately. The stories have all been shit is too expensive for the majority of Americans.
And...well...they're true.