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The economy has been bad, but that doesn't change that it is getting better on many important metrics. These are leading indicators, predicting what will be, but the effects that people are feeling are more like lagging indicators that are reacting to the past and present. Hopefully we see these predictions play out in the next year before the election and into the next presidency.
What we're going to see is a slight boost in the coming months as the federal reserve lowers the interest rate (by coincidence, also an election year 🤔)
But with the interest rate going down, the main barrier holding us back from higher inflation is being torn down. What will be the consequences of this? Prices will rise.
I think they are betting that the Ukrainian war ends in the next few months. If not ends, at least becomes a frozen conflict. This would remove a large inflationary pressure from the global system.
It's a gamble. Perhaps they even are negotiating with Russia behind the scenes. Russian high-level officials were spotted flying to DC last week.
We'll have to see. Hopefully they can end the war and lower interest rates. That would in effect give a large boost right before the 2024 election. Is that enough to pry the election away from Trump? I don't know. Biden is incredibly unpopular (even more unpopular than Trump at this same time! One of the least popular presidents in history).