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Bill Gates feels Generative AI has plateaued, says GPT-5 will not be any better
(indianexpress.com)
this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2023
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If humans are any kind of yardstick here, I’d say all this is true of us too on many levels. The brain is a shortcut engine, not a brute force computer. It’s not solving equations to help you predict where that tennis ball will bounce next. It’s making guesses based on its corpus of past experience. Good enough guesses are frankly our brains’ bread and butter and most of us get through most days on little more than this.
It’s true that we can do more. Some of us, anyway. How many people actually exercise math and logic though? Sometimes it seems like… not a lot. And how many people hallucinate fake facts? A lot.
It’s much like evaluating self-driving cars. We may be tempted to say they’re just bloody awful, but so are human drivers.
I'd say the majority of humans know what 2 + 2 is. Chat GPT doesn't. As it found the answer in some texts it will tell you 4, but all it takes is you telling it that's wrong and suddenly it's 5. So even for the most simple math problem it's extremely easy to throw the whole thing off. Which also means for any prompt you put in it can go in wildly wrong directions at times.
And this is all with good input data, there's plenty of trolls online and the data will only get worse (it already did, the original data up to 2021 was okayish, in the last year tons of crap was put out on top, some of it by Chat GPT itself. So the new model might input the crap it produced before, getting worse over time). The problem on top of that is that you don't know the sources it used. If you ask about a recent event you might receive an insane answer it picked up from a right wing conspiracy site, you simply don't know. There is no fact checking in place.
It's a stunningly good text generator, but that's all it is and it ever will be, at least until they do much more than just add more compute power to it.