this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2023
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Asklemmy
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Why would aliens come here?
'cause we gots beans!
For the same reasons we would visit them, for cultural exchange or to steal their resources in the case of the US empire.
I appreciate the stab at the US empire, but if I may be serious for a moment: It makes no sense to come here to steal our shit when there's countless stars and planets in the universe. I don't even think it makes the least bit of sense for humans to ever go to Mars and mine minerals there, given the logistics involved. Any alien smart enough to come here is going to be smart enough to realize that going to the pub is way easier and more fun.
The only question you need to ask to determine practicality is, "What is the return on investment?" We don't mine the seas or asteroids because they wouldn't be worth it. However, as soon as the technology becomes cheap enough, you can bet that there will be investors putting money into extracting resources from those locations. The same principle applies to other planets โ if it's profitable, it will be pursued.
Launching spacecraft from earth and putting them into various orbits needs a lot of energy. It's just going to be cheaper to mine stuff on earth or recycle. With fully automated robots and something as close as Mars and mining something super rare and valueable maybe, but it gets exponentially stupider when you need to send humans or go to another solar system.
The maximum likelihood estimate date for AGI according to metaculus is 2027
After we achieve AGI you don't need to send humans anywhere because a robot could do anything a human can and probably better.
And this Kurzgesagt video explains how asteroid mining could be done. Unlimited Resources From Space โ Asteroid Mining
Yeah the artificial intelligence gurus are deluded. And don't get me started on Kurzgesagt, those fucks think a couple of billion dead due to climate change is reason to be hopeful, and that Bill Gates' investing in carbon capture is going to save the rest, because, err, ~~magical thinking~~ he gives them money.
In the case of 3Body,
spoiler
it wasn't about profit but the about the survival of the entire ecology. The planet was doomed to fall into one of the stars and so the race was picking up and moving as much as it could to the next-most-habitable region.But a practical ROI can only really be measured within a single lifetime. And extraplanetary travel will always have a return of $0, as anyone deciding to perform extra-planetary exploration today will not see the benefits for generations. One might argue a more Ursula LeGuin-esque view of interstellar colonization - as a struggle for survival that simply expands beyond the frontiers of a single planet. But then, what we're really talking about with Martian colonization or extra-Solar travel is some kind of politically or ecologically motivated Exodus. Because the economic exploitation of the New World was mostly just hit-and-run raids early on. The Virginia Company was an abject failure as an economic exercise. It cost far more to maintain than it yielded.
The real motivating force behind early colonization was the 30 Years War and the flight of the Protestants. What you're ultimately going to need are some Huguenots with space ships. Even then, the real labor force in colonization were indentured servants and slaves. And there's not going to be a Trans-Atlantic Triangle to move people from Earth to the spacial frontier, because... Its space. There's nothing out there.
I ask myself the same question all the time. So you supposedly have this super advanced space-travelling civilization, and they're somehow interested in us, who aren't even able to colonize another planet yet, and are destroying our only one planet in the meantime. We're like monkeys in a zoo to them. Why should we be interesting for a much more advanced civilization? At best, they'd monitor our "progress" as a civilization from afar, and maybe make contact once we've become a Kardashev type 2 or 3 civilization. If or when that happens. Still a long way. We haven't even ensured that our home planet is safe from us. Or maybe they want specific resources from Earth. But then we'd get much more visitors, who also wouldn't be friendly I guess. So I think it's highly unlikely, which means I also think this is being staged, intended to gain more funding.
People love seeing monkeys in the zoo, the closer the better! I think if we could travel to other planets to check out other life forms we would do it all the time. I don't believe aliens have come here, but if they exist and could come see us they would totally do it for the same reasons we would want to go see them. Makes sense to me!
You realise we do keep animals in zoos?
To see you bro.
Cynical take: To kill us. Dark forest style. Send out automated drones and kill off all other life that could pose a threat.
Other thoughts: If aliens showed up it we wouldn't detect them in atmo, not as a quick fly by. We'd detect something huge like engines or something going real fast way out in space. Like on the edge of the system. If they were in our atmosphere they would make themselves known one way or another at that point.
As a sci-fi explanation for the Fermi Paradox, I found Dark Forest Theory compelling and thrilling.
As an actual IRL explanation for a lack of First Contact, I'm totally underwhelmed. Space is big. The speed of light heavily truncates both travel and communication. Extraterrestrial life certainly isn't common, as evidenced by all of the planets in our own Solar System that are lifeless.
It should be noted that
spoiler
across three different books, the humans and tri-solarians never actually meet. The whole build-up is ultimately a bust, as both humans and aliens end up fleeing Dark Forest attacks by other alien races who have only just barely noticed their presence and attack on reflex. Fun dramatic twist, but it really banks on everyone being invested in outcomes that are hundreds of generations into the future.The sheer amount of energy for super-luminal travel would suggest we either can't see them or can't miss them.
But one posits a degree of technological advancement so beyond our current scope that we can barely conceive of it. And the other posits a kind-of soft ceiling to scientific advancement, such that alien life just can't be an issue even in another thousand lifetimes.
If first contact is anything, it will more likely be communicative than a literal fly by. Humans tuning into the extraterrestrial equivalent of AM radio will be the first to discover an advanced off-world civilization.
Going back to 3Body, one of the most compelling plot beats for me was
spoiler
when the Tri-solarians started producing daytime drama TV shows about star-crossed lovers communing across a great distance, in order to influence humans into sympathizing with the refugee colony ships they intended to send Earthward.Like, that's what I imagine a real human/alien interaction would look like for... centuries. Long before either saw the other one face-to-face.
The waifus are coming. They want to meet their senpais. Be patient, nyaah.